November 3rd Financial Breakfast: Democrats urge Trump to negotiate shutdown; gold prices face a crucial decision point at the $4000 mark; OPEC+ production cuts fall short of expectations, supporting oil prices.
2025-11-03 07:29:35
On Monday (November 3, Beijing time), spot gold traded around $3,990 per ounce. Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials last week put pressure on the market, while easing trade tensions dragged down gold prices. US crude oil traded around $61.35 per barrel, with increased uncertainty surrounding the situation in Venezuela. Although all OPEC+ delegations agreed to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the increase will be suspended in the first quarter of next year, lower than market expectations, supporting oil prices.
U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, driven by strong earnings forecasts from Amazon. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all posted weekly gains, marking their longest monthly winning streak in years.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.09% to 47,562.87; the S&P 500 gained 0.26% to 6,840.20; and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.61% to 23,724.96. In October, the S&P 500 rose 2.27%, marking its sixth consecutive month of gains, its longest winning streak since August 2021.
The Nasdaq rose 4.7% in October, marking its seventh consecutive month of gains, its longest winning streak since early 2018. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.5% in October, its sixth consecutive month of gains, also its longest monthly increase since January 2018.
Amazon's stock surged nearly 10% to a record high after releasing an optimistic quarterly sales forecast, driving a significant rally in the consumer discretionary sector. However, market optimism was tempered by two factors: first, Apple's stock dipped slightly despite strong iPhone sales forecasts, as CEO Tim Cook's warnings about supply constraints weighed on the company; second, hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve officials dampened market expectations of aggressive interest rate cuts, leading to a significant decrease in traders' likelihood of a December rate cut.
In terms of sectors, food retail stocks were generally under pressure due to market concerns that the government shutdown could affect federal food aid programs. Although a court ruled that the government must continue to pay related benefits, the shares of retailers such as Kroger and Walmart all closed lower.
Among individual stocks, Warner Bros. Discovery's stock price surged due to rumors that Netflix might be interested in its assets; Netflix's stock price rose after announcing its stock split plan; Western Digital and First Solar also recorded considerable gains due to better-than-expected earnings.
Overall, the market is caught in a tug-of-war between strong corporate earnings and the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. With the government shutdown disrupting economic data releases, investors are relying more heavily on corporate performance to assess the health of the economy.
Gold prices fell about 1% on Friday, barely holding above the $4,000/ounce level, mainly due to market uncertainty regarding the future path of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Although gold prices still recorded their third consecutive monthly gain in October, hawkish comments from Fed officials put pressure on the market.
Cleveland Federal Reserve President Hamack publicly stated her opposition to last week's interest rate cut and emphasized that policy needs to remain restrictive in order to curb inflation. This statement reinforced market caution, significantly reducing traders' expectations for another rate cut in December. Meanwhile, the dollar index held steady near a three-month high, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, further suppressing gold prices.
Despite short-term pressures, institutions remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for gold. Morgan Stanley points out that gold prices still have room to rise and predicts that the average gold price will reach $4,300 per ounce in the first half of 2026, supported by factors including expectations of interest rate cuts, central bank gold purchases, and continued economic uncertainty.
In other precious metals, spot silver fell 0.7% to $48.58 per ounce; platinum fell 1.7% to $1,582.89 per ounce; and palladium fell 0.2% to $1,442.01 per ounce.
Oil prices rose slightly on Friday, surging after media reports that the U.S. might launch an airstrike on Venezuela within hours. However, the gains quickly receded after U.S. President Trump publicly denied the plan on social media, and market sentiment subsequently calmed.
Analysts point out that such geopolitical rumors have a significant impact on the market, adding uncertainty to Monday's oil price movements. Meanwhile, a stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated oil more expensive for buyers of other currencies.
Looking at the monthly performance, both Brent and US crude oil prices fell by about 2.6% in October due to continued production increases by OPEC+ and record-high US crude oil production last week.
On Sunday, all OPEC+ delegations agreed to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, with a pause in production increases during the first quarter of next year. Market surveys also slightly revised upwards their average oil price forecasts for 2025, with Brent crude averaging $67.99 per barrel, about 38 cents higher than the September estimate. The average price of U.S. crude is projected at $64.83, slightly higher than the September estimate of $64.39.
The yen fell for the month against the dollar last Friday, mainly because the Bank of Japan did not adopt a more hawkish stance on interest rate hikes than the market had expected, while the Federal Reserve also dampened expectations of a December rate cut, both of which contributed to the dollar's strength.
Despite Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama's statement that the Bank of Japan is monitoring exchange rate movements with a high degree of urgency, and the acceleration of core inflation data in Tokyo remaining above the central bank's target, providing some support for the yen, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's cautious stance on interest rate hikes disappointed the market, putting pressure on the yen. Some analysts believe that the Bank of Japan will ultimately push for policy normalization, and coupled with wage growth and potential fiscal expansion policies, this may provide long-term support for the yen.
Meanwhile, the dollar index continued its upward trend, posting its best monthly performance since July. Market expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve have cooled significantly, with traders now predicting a 63% probability of a rate cut, far lower than the 93% a week ago. Some strategists point out that the dollar faces technical resistance, but given that market positioning is nearing its limit, further shorting of the dollar is quite difficult.
In Europe, the euro fell against the dollar after the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time and emphasized that policy was in a "good position." The pound fell to a multi-month low as markets worried about UK fiscal policy and the economic outlook, and expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Bank of England increased.
Democrats urge Trump to engage in negotiations as the US government shutdown approaches a record high.
As the US government shutdown enters a critical week, poised to become the longest in US history, and with the impact on American families steadily increasing, Democratic senators are again urging President Trump to directly engage in negotiations to end the shutdown. Late last week, lawmakers said they had finally made progress in negotiations to reopen the government and had also begun discussing how to address the impending expiration of the Affordable Care Act's enhanced subsidies. Once these subsidies expire, the cost of health insurance for millions of Americans will rise sharply. Democrats have made healthcare-related negotiations a precondition for voting to end the shutdown.
The United States has suspended heating subsidies for 5.9 million households.
According to an Associated Press report on November 1, the US government shutdown has forced several government-led social welfare programs to cease operations due to depleted funds. This includes the Energy Assistance Program for Low-Income Families, which covers 5.9 million households nationwide, leaving some low-income families facing a cold winter without heating. (CCTV Finance)
Iranian Foreign Minister warns: If Israel attacks Iran again, it must wait for another defeat.
According to Iran's Mehr News Agency on November 1, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated in a recent interview that Iran is prepared to respond to another Israeli attack. He also warned Israel that if it attacks Iran again, it will have to wait for another defeat.
The Canadian Prime Minister confirmed that he apologized to Trump for the tariff advertisement and reiterated Canada's desire to resume trade negotiations.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney confirmed that he has apologized to US President Donald Trump for a television ad opposing tariffs and stated that Canada is prepared to negotiate a better trade deal with the United States. Carney said he had seen the ad and consulted with Ontario Premier Doug Ford before it aired. Regarding the ad, Carney said, "If it were me, I wouldn't have done that." He added, "As Prime Minister, I have a responsibility to manage our relationship with the President of the United States. Some things are bound to happen, for better or for worse, and we must accept that. I have apologized for it."
Russian Deputy Prime Minister: 11 of Russia's 13 "abandoned" car factories have resumed production.
Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov stated that almost all car factories left behind after foreign automakers withdrew from the Russian market have resumed production. According to Manturov, as of today, 11 of the 13 car plants have fully resumed production, with the remaining two scheduled to start in 2026. Manturov emphasized that these factories are systematically filling the market gaps left by the withdrawal of Western brands. He cited Volkswagen's Kaluga plant as an example, which now produces the Russian brand Tenet cars and has a complete production cycle including welding and painting. The Russian company Soles has also quickly converted idle capacity to produce its own models.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has confirmed that it will release a critical crop report in November.
According to a notice released on the website of the U.S. National Agricultural Statistics Bureau, the agency has confirmed that it will release its crop production report and global agricultural supply and demand forecasts on November 14. This highly anticipated report was originally scheduled for release on November 10, but due to the near-complete shutdown of the U.S. government since October 1, there were doubts within the industry about whether the report could be released on time. This upcoming report is of particular significance as it will include the first official U.S. government forecasts for U.S. corn and soybean production since September. When the previous report was released in September, harvesting had not yet fully commenced in most of the U.S. Midwest, meaning that the November report will, for the first time, provide the market with more accurate production forecasts based on data closer to the harvest season. This news alleviates concerns in the agricultural market about data gaps. During the government shutdown, the lack of key agricultural data created uncertainty for grain traders, farmers, and food companies, affecting market assessments of the global food supply situation.
Ministry of Finance: Taxpayers who sell standard gold without going through an exchange should pay value-added tax in accordance with current regulations.
The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued an announcement regarding tax policies related to gold. It states that taxpayers selling standard gold not through exchanges should pay value-added tax (VAT) in accordance with current regulations. For member units purchasing standard gold from exchanges for investment purposes and involving physical delivery, the unit price, amount, and tax amount on the VAT special invoice shall be determined according to the following provisions.
On the first day of the new duty-free policy for Hainan's offshore islands, duty-free shopping reached 78.549 million yuan.
According to the latest data from Haikou Customs, on the first day of the new Hainan offshore duty-free policy, duty-free shopping amounted to 78.549 million yuan, with 54,800 items purchased and 12,700 shoppers. Sales revenue increased by 6.1% compared to the day before the policy took effect (October 31), indicating the initial positive effect of the policy. The new Hainan offshore duty-free policy allows for the duty-free sale of six categories of domestically produced goods and permits Hainan residents to purchase "buy and pick up" goods an unlimited number of times within one year on their offshore trips.
Wang Xingxing of Unitree Robotics: Chinese companies play a bridging role in the global technology landscape.
“Chinese companies, especially technology companies, have always been a valuable link connecting the world,” said Wang Xingxing, CEO of Unitree Robotics and a member of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) delegation. He noted that Chinese technology companies not only learn from advanced global experiences but also contribute Chinese solutions through open sharing. Wang made these remarks during an interview at the APEC Leaders' Informal Meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea. He pointed out that the world is currently facing the dual challenges of economic recovery and technological change, and the AI-driven robotics industry is widely regarded as the most promising growth engine for the future. He stated that the AI-driven robotics industry is becoming a significant force driving economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region and globally. “If a breakthrough is achieved in general-purpose artificial intelligence models, it will propel human civilization into a new stage, much like the invention of electricity or the steam engine.”
Key Focus Today
stock market
U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, driven by strong earnings forecasts from Amazon. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all posted weekly gains, marking their longest monthly winning streak in years.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.09% to 47,562.87; the S&P 500 gained 0.26% to 6,840.20; and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.61% to 23,724.96. In October, the S&P 500 rose 2.27%, marking its sixth consecutive month of gains, its longest winning streak since August 2021.
The Nasdaq rose 4.7% in October, marking its seventh consecutive month of gains, its longest winning streak since early 2018. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.5% in October, its sixth consecutive month of gains, also its longest monthly increase since January 2018.
Amazon's stock surged nearly 10% to a record high after releasing an optimistic quarterly sales forecast, driving a significant rally in the consumer discretionary sector. However, market optimism was tempered by two factors: first, Apple's stock dipped slightly despite strong iPhone sales forecasts, as CEO Tim Cook's warnings about supply constraints weighed on the company; second, hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve officials dampened market expectations of aggressive interest rate cuts, leading to a significant decrease in traders' likelihood of a December rate cut.
In terms of sectors, food retail stocks were generally under pressure due to market concerns that the government shutdown could affect federal food aid programs. Although a court ruled that the government must continue to pay related benefits, the shares of retailers such as Kroger and Walmart all closed lower.
Among individual stocks, Warner Bros. Discovery's stock price surged due to rumors that Netflix might be interested in its assets; Netflix's stock price rose after announcing its stock split plan; Western Digital and First Solar also recorded considerable gains due to better-than-expected earnings.
Overall, the market is caught in a tug-of-war between strong corporate earnings and the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. With the government shutdown disrupting economic data releases, investors are relying more heavily on corporate performance to assess the health of the economy.
Gold Market
Gold prices fell about 1% on Friday, barely holding above the $4,000/ounce level, mainly due to market uncertainty regarding the future path of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Although gold prices still recorded their third consecutive monthly gain in October, hawkish comments from Fed officials put pressure on the market.
Cleveland Federal Reserve President Hamack publicly stated her opposition to last week's interest rate cut and emphasized that policy needs to remain restrictive in order to curb inflation. This statement reinforced market caution, significantly reducing traders' expectations for another rate cut in December. Meanwhile, the dollar index held steady near a three-month high, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, further suppressing gold prices.
Despite short-term pressures, institutions remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for gold. Morgan Stanley points out that gold prices still have room to rise and predicts that the average gold price will reach $4,300 per ounce in the first half of 2026, supported by factors including expectations of interest rate cuts, central bank gold purchases, and continued economic uncertainty.
In other precious metals, spot silver fell 0.7% to $48.58 per ounce; platinum fell 1.7% to $1,582.89 per ounce; and palladium fell 0.2% to $1,442.01 per ounce.
oil market
Oil prices rose slightly on Friday, surging after media reports that the U.S. might launch an airstrike on Venezuela within hours. However, the gains quickly receded after U.S. President Trump publicly denied the plan on social media, and market sentiment subsequently calmed.
Analysts point out that such geopolitical rumors have a significant impact on the market, adding uncertainty to Monday's oil price movements. Meanwhile, a stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated oil more expensive for buyers of other currencies.
Looking at the monthly performance, both Brent and US crude oil prices fell by about 2.6% in October due to continued production increases by OPEC+ and record-high US crude oil production last week.
On Sunday, all OPEC+ delegations agreed to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, with a pause in production increases during the first quarter of next year. Market surveys also slightly revised upwards their average oil price forecasts for 2025, with Brent crude averaging $67.99 per barrel, about 38 cents higher than the September estimate. The average price of U.S. crude is projected at $64.83, slightly higher than the September estimate of $64.39.
Foreign exchange market
The yen fell for the month against the dollar last Friday, mainly because the Bank of Japan did not adopt a more hawkish stance on interest rate hikes than the market had expected, while the Federal Reserve also dampened expectations of a December rate cut, both of which contributed to the dollar's strength.
Despite Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama's statement that the Bank of Japan is monitoring exchange rate movements with a high degree of urgency, and the acceleration of core inflation data in Tokyo remaining above the central bank's target, providing some support for the yen, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's cautious stance on interest rate hikes disappointed the market, putting pressure on the yen. Some analysts believe that the Bank of Japan will ultimately push for policy normalization, and coupled with wage growth and potential fiscal expansion policies, this may provide long-term support for the yen.
Meanwhile, the dollar index continued its upward trend, posting its best monthly performance since July. Market expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve have cooled significantly, with traders now predicting a 63% probability of a rate cut, far lower than the 93% a week ago. Some strategists point out that the dollar faces technical resistance, but given that market positioning is nearing its limit, further shorting of the dollar is quite difficult.
In Europe, the euro fell against the dollar after the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time and emphasized that policy was in a "good position." The pound fell to a multi-month low as markets worried about UK fiscal policy and the economic outlook, and expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Bank of England increased.
International News
Democrats urge Trump to engage in negotiations as the US government shutdown approaches a record high.
As the US government shutdown enters a critical week, poised to become the longest in US history, and with the impact on American families steadily increasing, Democratic senators are again urging President Trump to directly engage in negotiations to end the shutdown. Late last week, lawmakers said they had finally made progress in negotiations to reopen the government and had also begun discussing how to address the impending expiration of the Affordable Care Act's enhanced subsidies. Once these subsidies expire, the cost of health insurance for millions of Americans will rise sharply. Democrats have made healthcare-related negotiations a precondition for voting to end the shutdown.
The United States has suspended heating subsidies for 5.9 million households.
According to an Associated Press report on November 1, the US government shutdown has forced several government-led social welfare programs to cease operations due to depleted funds. This includes the Energy Assistance Program for Low-Income Families, which covers 5.9 million households nationwide, leaving some low-income families facing a cold winter without heating. (CCTV Finance)
Iranian Foreign Minister warns: If Israel attacks Iran again, it must wait for another defeat.
According to Iran's Mehr News Agency on November 1, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated in a recent interview that Iran is prepared to respond to another Israeli attack. He also warned Israel that if it attacks Iran again, it will have to wait for another defeat.
The Canadian Prime Minister confirmed that he apologized to Trump for the tariff advertisement and reiterated Canada's desire to resume trade negotiations.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney confirmed that he has apologized to US President Donald Trump for a television ad opposing tariffs and stated that Canada is prepared to negotiate a better trade deal with the United States. Carney said he had seen the ad and consulted with Ontario Premier Doug Ford before it aired. Regarding the ad, Carney said, "If it were me, I wouldn't have done that." He added, "As Prime Minister, I have a responsibility to manage our relationship with the President of the United States. Some things are bound to happen, for better or for worse, and we must accept that. I have apologized for it."
Russian Deputy Prime Minister: 11 of Russia's 13 "abandoned" car factories have resumed production.
Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov stated that almost all car factories left behind after foreign automakers withdrew from the Russian market have resumed production. According to Manturov, as of today, 11 of the 13 car plants have fully resumed production, with the remaining two scheduled to start in 2026. Manturov emphasized that these factories are systematically filling the market gaps left by the withdrawal of Western brands. He cited Volkswagen's Kaluga plant as an example, which now produces the Russian brand Tenet cars and has a complete production cycle including welding and painting. The Russian company Soles has also quickly converted idle capacity to produce its own models.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has confirmed that it will release a critical crop report in November.
According to a notice released on the website of the U.S. National Agricultural Statistics Bureau, the agency has confirmed that it will release its crop production report and global agricultural supply and demand forecasts on November 14. This highly anticipated report was originally scheduled for release on November 10, but due to the near-complete shutdown of the U.S. government since October 1, there were doubts within the industry about whether the report could be released on time. This upcoming report is of particular significance as it will include the first official U.S. government forecasts for U.S. corn and soybean production since September. When the previous report was released in September, harvesting had not yet fully commenced in most of the U.S. Midwest, meaning that the November report will, for the first time, provide the market with more accurate production forecasts based on data closer to the harvest season. This news alleviates concerns in the agricultural market about data gaps. During the government shutdown, the lack of key agricultural data created uncertainty for grain traders, farmers, and food companies, affecting market assessments of the global food supply situation.
Domestic News
Ministry of Finance: Taxpayers who sell standard gold without going through an exchange should pay value-added tax in accordance with current regulations.
The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued an announcement regarding tax policies related to gold. It states that taxpayers selling standard gold not through exchanges should pay value-added tax (VAT) in accordance with current regulations. For member units purchasing standard gold from exchanges for investment purposes and involving physical delivery, the unit price, amount, and tax amount on the VAT special invoice shall be determined according to the following provisions.
On the first day of the new duty-free policy for Hainan's offshore islands, duty-free shopping reached 78.549 million yuan.
According to the latest data from Haikou Customs, on the first day of the new Hainan offshore duty-free policy, duty-free shopping amounted to 78.549 million yuan, with 54,800 items purchased and 12,700 shoppers. Sales revenue increased by 6.1% compared to the day before the policy took effect (October 31), indicating the initial positive effect of the policy. The new Hainan offshore duty-free policy allows for the duty-free sale of six categories of domestically produced goods and permits Hainan residents to purchase "buy and pick up" goods an unlimited number of times within one year on their offshore trips.
Wang Xingxing of Unitree Robotics: Chinese companies play a bridging role in the global technology landscape.
“Chinese companies, especially technology companies, have always been a valuable link connecting the world,” said Wang Xingxing, CEO of Unitree Robotics and a member of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) delegation. He noted that Chinese technology companies not only learn from advanced global experiences but also contribute Chinese solutions through open sharing. Wang made these remarks during an interview at the APEC Leaders' Informal Meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea. He pointed out that the world is currently facing the dual challenges of economic recovery and technological change, and the AI-driven robotics industry is widely regarded as the most promising growth engine for the future. He stated that the AI-driven robotics industry is becoming a significant force driving economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region and globally. “If a breakthrough is achieved in general-purpose artificial intelligence models, it will propel human civilization into a new stage, much like the invention of electricity or the steam engine.”
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
