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2025-11-03 11:09:07
The Bank of England is likely to slow its rate-cutting pace this week, which began last year, and will probably keep current rates unchanged at its policy meeting on Thursday. This would be the first pause since its policy shift, although recent weaker inflation and wage data have prompted some analysts to expect another rate cut. The Bank of England's last action was in August, when it decided to cut rates by 25 basis points to 4% by a narrow 5-4 majority. Since then, Governor Bailey has stated that the previous pace of "one rate cut per quarter" has become more uncertain. However, September data showed that inflation did not rebound as expected, while wage growth slowed and unemployment rose, reigniting market expectations for a rate cut in November. Currently, financial markets believe there is about a one-in-three chance of a rate cut at this meeting. This expectation has also led institutions such as Goldman Sachs to change their stance and predict action in November. However, most economists surveyed still expect the central bank to remain on hold until 2026. ING economist James Smith predicts that this meeting will again result in a 5-4 split, but the result will be to keep rates unchanged. He believes that whether action will be taken in December remains uncertain, and will depend in part on the budget announced by Chancellor Reeves on November 26. Nomura economist George Buckley also acknowledges the complexity of the decision-making process, but he expects the meeting to pass a rate cut by a 5-4 vote, with President Bailey and two vice presidents likely joining the two external committee members who have previously voted in favor of rate cuts.
