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2025-11-03 21:10:37
[The Swiss National Bank Enters Wait-and-See Mode, with Exceptionally Strict Threshold for Interest Rate Cuts] ⑴ UBS economists point out that the Swiss National Bank needs to observe more signs of deflation before considering further interest rate cuts; the current inflation level of 0.1% is close to the price stability target. ⑵ The central bank's internal assessment believes that the current inflation outlook is largely in line with the target, and the impact of Trump's tariffs on economic growth is expected to be relatively limited, weakening the necessity for immediate monetary easing. ⑶ If the possibility of restarting negative interest rate policies is considered, three conditions must be met simultaneously: a significant deterioration in the Swiss economic outlook, further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank to narrow the interest rate differential, and continued upward pressure on the Swiss franc. ⑷ The inflation rate in October slightly decreased from 0.2% to 0.1%, indicating that price pressures continued to weaken, but it has not yet reached the key threshold for triggering central bank action. ⑸ The current monetary policy stance leans towards maintaining the status quo; investors should pay attention to the potential impact of subsequent inflation data and the European Central Bank's policy moves on the Swiss National Bank's decisions.
