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November 4th Financial Breakfast: Gold prices hover around the $4000 mark, awaiting economic data to determine direction; US oil holds steady near $61, awaiting the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision.

2025-11-04 07:35:17

On Tuesday (November 4th, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $3995 per ounce. On Monday, gold prices remained stable, fluctuating narrowly around the $4000 per ounce mark. The market is currently in a wait-and-see period, with investors awaiting the US ADP private sector employment data and ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) to be released later this week. US crude oil was trading around $60.95 per barrel. On Monday, oil prices stabilized under the influence of multiple factors. On the one hand, the market digested the OPEC+ production increase decision, and on the other hand, the impact of the production increase was offset by the support provided by the medium- to long-term suspension of production increases.

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Key Focus Today



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Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock held a press conference on monetary policy, and European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech.

stock market


U.S. stock markets closed mixed on Monday, showing a clear divergence among sectors. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed higher, driven by strong AI-related trading, with the Nasdaq showing the largest gain; while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed significantly lower, dragged down by declines in healthcare stocks such as UnitedHealth Group and Merck.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.48% to close at 47,336.68. The S&P 500 rose 0.17% to close at 6,851.97. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.46% to close at 23,834.72.

The main driver of the market rally came from the technology sector. Amazon's stock rose 4.0% after announcing a $38 billion deal with OpenAI. Meanwhile, Nvidia's stock rose 2.2% after Trump indicated he would restrict exports of its most advanced chips. Market strategists noted that Amazon's deals and acquisitions, along with some positive signals from China's trade policy and the Federal Reserve, boosted market sentiment, but the current market is almost entirely dominated by large technology and semiconductor companies.

On the economic front, the continued government shutdown and the scarcity of official economic data have created uncertainty for the Federal Reserve's next monetary policy move. Although the Fed cut interest rates as expected last week, internal officials are now divided on the future path of interest rates. Furthermore, market attention is focused on the legality of Trump's tariffs, a issue expected to be debated by the U.S. Supreme Court this Wednesday.

In terms of sector performance, the consumer discretionary sector saw the largest gains in the S&P 500, while the materials sector experienced the largest declines.

In addition, the third-quarter earnings season is progressing steadily, with strong performances. Data shows that among the S&P 500 companies that have released their earnings reports, 83% have exceeded market expectations.

Gold Market


Gold prices traded sideways on Monday, fluctuating narrowly around the $4,000 per ounce mark. Spot gold was almost unchanged near $4,000 per ounce, while the U.S. December gold futures contract edged higher at $4,014 per ounce.

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The market is currently in a wait-and-see period, with investors awaiting the release of the US ADP private sector employment data and the ISM Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) later this week, hoping to find clues about the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy, particularly whether there will be another interest rate cut this year.

Analysts point out that after a strong 53% surge this year, gold prices are currently consolidating within a range, a normal phenomenon after such a significant rise. The head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank also believes that the current pause in the rally is more of a respite than a collapse. Although affected by short-term factors such as seasonal weakness and a stronger dollar, the long-term upward trend remains unchanged.

The key factor influencing market sentiment is the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Despite the Fed's second rate cut this year last week, Chairman Powell's comments left room for flexibility in future actions, causing traders' expectations of another rate cut in December to drop significantly from nearly 100% to 65.3%. This uncertainty has limited gold price volatility, as a lower interest rate environment and economic uncertainty are generally more favorable for non-interest-bearing gold.

In other precious metals, spot silver and platinum prices both declined, with spot silver falling 0.8% to $48.25 per ounce. Platinum fell 0.2% to $1,564.30 per ounce. Palladium rose 0.4% to $1,439.86 per ounce.

oil market


Oil prices stabilized on Monday amid a confluence of factors, exhibiting a delicate balance. Ultimately, both Brent crude and U.S. crude futures closed slightly higher, with Brent crude rising 0.2% to settle at $64.89 a barrel. U.S. crude rose 0.1% to settle at $61.05.

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The market digested the latest decision from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+). The organization agreed to a small production increase in December, but more importantly, it plans to completely halt production increases in the first quarter of next year. This move was interpreted by the market as the supply pressure from short-term production increases being offset by the support provided by the medium- to long-term production halt. This expectation even prompted Morgan Stanley to raise its 2026 oil price forecast. Morgan Stanley raised its Brent crude oil forecast for the first half of 2026 from $57.50 per barrel to $60 per barrel.

However, the upward momentum of oil prices has been significantly constrained by demand. Data shows that manufacturing activity in Asia, the world's largest oil-consuming region, remains weak, raising deep concerns about future oil demand. At the same time, the continued strengthening of the US dollar, hovering near a three-month high, has significantly increased the cost of purchasing crude oil for buyers using other currencies, further suppressing oil prices.

Foreign exchange market


On Monday, the dollar extended its gains against the euro from last week, climbing to a three-month high. This surge was primarily driven by a shift in market expectations regarding whether the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates again this year.

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Last week, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected, but Chairman Powell hinted that this might be the last one this year, citing an uncertain economic outlook. This shift to a hawkish stance caused traders' expectations for a December rate cut to plummet from 100% a week earlier to about 65.3%. Market concerns deepened due to the lack of key economic data—affected by the government shutdown, important data, including the non-farm payroll report, could not be released, forcing investors to rely on limited information such as the ADP employment data to assess the economic situation.

The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have also become public, exacerbating market uncertainty. Governor Milan advocates for significant rate cuts, while Chicago Fed President Goolsby is cautious about further rate cuts given persistently high inflation. Scotiabank strategists point out that such open disagreement among policymakers is rare in recent years.

Against this backdrop, the euro fell to its lowest level against the dollar since August, although it subsequently narrowed its losses due to weak US manufacturing data. The dollar also rose to its highest level against the Swiss franc since mid-August. Meanwhile, other major currencies faced their own pressures: the yen hovered at an eight-and-a-half-month low due to a large interest rate differential, with market concerns rising about Japanese intervention in the foreign exchange market; the pound weakened as market expectations for a Bank of England rate cut increased; and the Australian dollar, while slightly lower, received some support from market expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia would keep interest rates unchanged due to high inflation.

Despite the general strengthening of the US dollar, analysts caution that the continued lack of official data could ultimately limit its upward momentum.

International News


The U.S. Treasury Department lowered its quarterly borrowing forecast due to higher-than-expected cash balances.

The U.S. Treasury Department lowered its federal borrowing forecast for the current quarter, primarily due to a higher-than-expected cash balance at the start of the quarter. The Treasury stated on Monday that it expects net borrowing for October to December to be $569 billion, down from the $590 billion forecast in July, which assumed a cash balance of $850 billion at the end of December, a level consistent with previous quarters. The Treasury projects borrowing for January to March next year to be $578 billion, with a target of maintaining a cash balance of $850 billion by the end of March. Last quarter, the Treasury significantly increased Treasury bill issuance to rebuild cash reserves after Congress passed a debt ceiling increase bill, and this balance has exceeded the previous $850 billion target, reaching $1 trillion for the first time since April 2021.

The US government shutdown will halve record-breaking food assistance payments.

The U.S. federal government shutdown entered its 34th day on March 3, just one day shy of the record for the longest shutdown at 35 days. The Trump administration stated that day that it would use emergency funds to maintain half of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance (SNAP) payments this month, but some states may need weeks or even months to resume payments. The SNAP suspended payments on March 1 due to depleted funds. This federal food relief program, overseen by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, spends over $8 billion monthly. According to U.S. media reports, this is the first time in the SNAP's 60-year history that payments have been suspended; it has never stopped even during previous federal government shutdowns. (CCTV)

Is the US really going to use force against Venezuela by amassing a large troop force to threaten a ground offensive?

In recent months, the US government, under the pretext of "combating Latin American drug cartels," has conducted its largest military deployment in over 30 years in the Caribbean Sea near Venezuela. Simultaneously, the US military has undertaken a series of upgrades and modifications to military bases and civilian airports in the Caribbean region. Imagery and ship and flight tracking data show that since August of this year, the US has deployed at least 13 warships, 5 support ships, and 1 nuclear submarine to the Caribbean Sea. Furthermore, US air activity near the Venezuelan coastline has also increased significantly. The US government has repeatedly stated that it is considering "ground" military operations against Venezuelan drug cartels. However, on October 31, US President Trump stated that he had not yet decided whether to launch attacks on ground targets within Venezuela. On November 2, when again asked by reporters whether there were plans to strike Venezuela, Trump avoided the question. (CCTV)

Kaohsiung City's Sanae Cabinet enjoys an 82% approval rating.

The latest poll in Japan shows that the approval rating for the Sanae Takaichi cabinet has reached 82%, the second highest in 25 years.

Khamenei: Iran will not consider cooperating with the United States in the near future.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei stated in a public address in Tehran on March 3 that Iran will not consider cooperation requests from the United States in the near future. According to the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), Khamenei emphasized that the differences between Iran and the United States are fundamental, not tactical, highlighting a basic conflict of interests between the two countries. He stressed that Iran will only consider cooperation with the United States if these three preconditions are met: the United States must completely cease supporting Israel, withdraw its military bases from the Middle East, and stop interfering in Iran's internal affairs. He added that Iran will not consider cooperation with the United States in the near future. (Xinhua)

The U.S. government provides financing to rare earth magnet producers.

The U.S. Commerce Department and the Pentagon pledged financing and a potential equity stake in a domestic rare-earth magnet producer on Monday. According to a statement from the Commerce Department, the department signed a non-binding preliminary letter of intent to provide $50 million to Vulcan Elements under the 2022 Chip Act to purchase equipment for producing permanent magnets needed for fighter jets, wind turbines, and a range of other critical products. North Carolina-based Vulcan Elements separately stated it will receive a $620 million direct loan from the Pentagon's Strategic Capital Office and $550 million in private capital to build a 10,000-ton magnet plant in the United States. "A dream come true," Vulcan Elements CEO John Maslin said in an interview. "It's all about scaling up our existing capacity and reaching a scale that makes sense for the nation."

Hungarian Prime Minister opposes providing funding to Ukraine

On November 3, local time, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated on social media that, according to an analysis by The Economist, if the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues, Ukraine will need to invest $400 billion over the next four years for weapons purchases, reconstruction, and other purposes. This is why the EU hopes to use frozen Russian assets to provide loans to Ukraine. Orbán said that Hungary firmly opposes the EU's plan. From a political, economic, and moral standpoint, Hungary has no reason to provide funds to Ukraine. Over the next four years, Hungary will focus on supporting Hungarian families, businesses, and retirees, rather than funding Ukraine. (CCTV News)

The German government anticipates implementing energy subsidies in 2026 to boost heavy industry.

German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche anticipates the government will introduce a new mechanism on January 1st next year to subsidize electricity costs for energy-intensive industries until 2029. The official stated that negotiations with the European Commission on "industrial electricity prices" have entered the final stage, and the measure could cost as much as €5 billion (US$5.8 billion). The planned industrial electricity price is seen as "a crucial cornerstone" for improving the competitiveness of Germany's steel industry, which has been plagued by rising energy costs.

Domestic News


China's logistics industry prosperity index reached 50.7% in October, maintaining an expansionary trend.

The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released its October China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index today (October 4th). Building on the strong demand released earlier in the month, the index continued its expansionary trend in October, with the total business volume index, new orders index, and capital turnover rate index all remaining within the expansionary range. The October China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index was 50.7%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Although the total logistics business volume index saw a slight decline, overall demand remained on the rise.

A world first! A domestically produced 5G robot completes remote micron-level ophthalmic surgery.

On November 2nd, a micron-level ophthalmic surgery spanning 4200 kilometers—the world's first remote robotic subretinal injection surgery—was successfully performed between Guangzhou and Urumqi. This surgery, based on a domestically developed 5G ophthalmic surgical robot, marks a significant leap for my country in the field of remote high-precision ophthalmic surgery, moving from "feasibility" to "practicality." The surgery was led by Professor Lin Haotian's team at Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center of Sun Yat-sen University, in collaboration with Professor Yang Bo's team at Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Hospital and Professor Huang Kai's team at the School of Computer Science of Sun Yat-sen University.

The "Report on High-Quality Development of Central Enterprises (2025)" was released.

On November 3, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC) released the "Report on High-Quality Development of Central Enterprises (2025)". The report focuses on the main measures and achievements of central enterprises since 2024 in enhancing their core functions, improving their core competitiveness, and promoting high-quality development. The report shows that central enterprises have invested over 800 billion yuan in upgrading outdated equipment and digitalizing and greening their operations, effectively supporting the boost to domestic demand. Significant progress has also been made in technological innovation, with a number of major projects and national strategic assets being built in aerospace, energy, and communications, and breakthroughs being made in a number of "bottleneck" and "original" technologies in integrated circuits, industrial machine tools, and industrial software. (CCTV)
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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

3995.86

-5.30

(-0.13%)

XAG

47.739

-0.320

(-0.67%)

CONC

60.15

-0.90

(-1.47%)

OILC

64.05

-0.77

(-1.19%)

USD

100.060

0.196

(0.20%)

EURUSD

1.1492

-0.0027

(-0.24%)

GBPUSD

1.3062

-0.0077

(-0.58%)

USDCNH

7.1289

0.0045

(0.06%)

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