USD/CAD exchange rate forecast: Break through the 1.4100 level, reaching a new high in seven months.
2025-11-05 18:33:51
On Wednesday (November 5), during the European trading session, the USD/CAD exchange rate rose for the fifth consecutive trading day, reaching 1.4131, a gain of 0.21%. Daily chart technical analysis shows that the pair has broken out of its upward channel, solidifying its bullish trend.
Supported by interest rate differentials and the outlook for central banks around the world, the US dollar has risen sharply against the Canadian dollar, with further upside potential remaining. Although volatility is expected, the bullish momentum remains intact.
Despite the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, USD/CAD swaps maintained a positive yield. This was because the Bank of Canada also cut rates earlier that day, and the interest rate differential remained essentially unchanged. Furthermore, market speculation that the Fed may not be able to cut rates further in December is also significantly influencing the future movement of this currency pair.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices rebounded slightly to $61 a barrel after two days of declines, providing some support to the Canadian dollar, which is closely linked to commodity prices.
Technical Analysis
(USD/CAD daily chart source: EasyForex)
The USD/CAD pair formed an upward channel in June 2025 (formed by the blue downward and upward sloping lines), and the current price continues to rise along the upper edge of the channel, indicating a clear medium-term bullish trend.
The initial resistance level is at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of 1.4166. Above this, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (corresponding to 1.4313) is a previous important resistance zone; a break above this level could lead to the 1.4414-1.4442 range.
The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (1.4045) is a key short-term support level; a pullback to this level could be seen as an opportunity to buy. The 200-period moving average and last Wednesday's low (approximately 1.3887) are medium-term trend support levels; a break below these levels would invalidate the bullish structure.
The DIFF and DEA lines are converging above the zero line, and the MACD histogram is close to the zero line, indicating that the short-term battle between bulls and bears has intensified, but the overall trend is still bullish.
The RSI (14) value reached 70.6476, entering the overbought zone, indicating that there may be a short-term pullback demand. However, as long as the RSI does not fall below 60, the overbought condition does not change the medium-term bullish trend.
The USD/CAD pair is currently in an accelerating upward phase within an ascending channel, and the medium-term bullish trend remains intact. In terms of trading strategy, short-term traders can consider buying on dips near the 1.4045 support level, targeting the 1.4313-1.4414 range. However, if the price breaks below the lower channel line at 1.3887, a trend reversal risk should be anticipated.
At 18:27 Beijing time, the USD/CAD exchange rate was 1.4133/35, up 0.23%.
Supported by interest rate differentials and the outlook for central banks around the world, the US dollar has risen sharply against the Canadian dollar, with further upside potential remaining. Although volatility is expected, the bullish momentum remains intact.
Despite the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, USD/CAD swaps maintained a positive yield. This was because the Bank of Canada also cut rates earlier that day, and the interest rate differential remained essentially unchanged. Furthermore, market speculation that the Fed may not be able to cut rates further in December is also significantly influencing the future movement of this currency pair.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices rebounded slightly to $61 a barrel after two days of declines, providing some support to the Canadian dollar, which is closely linked to commodity prices.
Technical Analysis
(USD/CAD daily chart source: EasyForex)
The USD/CAD pair formed an upward channel in June 2025 (formed by the blue downward and upward sloping lines), and the current price continues to rise along the upper edge of the channel, indicating a clear medium-term bullish trend.
The initial resistance level is at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of 1.4166. Above this, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (corresponding to 1.4313) is a previous important resistance zone; a break above this level could lead to the 1.4414-1.4442 range.
The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (1.4045) is a key short-term support level; a pullback to this level could be seen as an opportunity to buy. The 200-period moving average and last Wednesday's low (approximately 1.3887) are medium-term trend support levels; a break below these levels would invalidate the bullish structure.
The DIFF and DEA lines are converging above the zero line, and the MACD histogram is close to the zero line, indicating that the short-term battle between bulls and bears has intensified, but the overall trend is still bullish.
The RSI (14) value reached 70.6476, entering the overbought zone, indicating that there may be a short-term pullback demand. However, as long as the RSI does not fall below 60, the overbought condition does not change the medium-term bullish trend.
The USD/CAD pair is currently in an accelerating upward phase within an ascending channel, and the medium-term bullish trend remains intact. In terms of trading strategy, short-term traders can consider buying on dips near the 1.4045 support level, targeting the 1.4313-1.4414 range. However, if the price breaks below the lower channel line at 1.3887, a trend reversal risk should be anticipated.
At 18:27 Beijing time, the USD/CAD exchange rate was 1.4133/35, up 0.23%.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
