Gold consolidated around $4,000 amid cautious sentiment.
2025-11-08 01:44:06
On Friday (November 7), spot gold edged higher, remaining within the familiar range of $3,900-$4,050. The prolonged US government shutdown and cautious sentiment in global markets supported stable safe-haven buying.
Global stock indices edged lower, influenced by weakness in US technology and AI-related stocks, while cooling risk appetite provided modest support for gold. Investors remained wary of overvalued prices and the possibility of further market corrections, prompting some funds to shift towards defensive assets.
Worrying signs are emerging in the US economy, with the ongoing government shutdown raising concerns about its potential economic impact, while the labor market is showing signs of cooling. These factors have all contributed to safe-haven buying of gold.
However, traders are reassessing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook, resulting in a lack of strong follow-through buying in gold. Recent data and cautious comments from policymakers have created market uncertainty, and gold is largely trading within a range ahead of the weekend.
Market drivers: US policy deadlock and labor market pressures disrupt the market.
The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 38th day, with little progress in bipartisan negotiations on reaching a funding agreement. Senate Majority Leader John Thune proposed a vote on a new temporary funding bill later Friday to keep the government running until January. However, negotiations are deadlocked, with Democrats advocating for the inclusion of healthcare and social spending measures in the bill, while Republicans support a plain appropriations bill without additional clauses.
The government shutdown has delayed the release of key official economic indicators, forcing investors and policymakers to rely on private sector data to assess the health of the economy. The latest Challenger job cuts report shows that U.S. employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October, the highest monthly figure since 2003. This contrasts sharply with Wednesday's ADP employment report, which showed 42,000 new private sector jobs added during the same period.
A series of hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials on Thursday exacerbated market caution. Chicago Fed President Goolsby emphasized the stability of the labor market and noted that further rate cuts should be approached with caution due to the lack of inflation data caused by the government shutdown. Cleveland Fed President Hammark stressed inflation risks, stating that the current policy stance is "only slightly restrictive," while St. Louis Fed President Mussallam said that current policy is "between moderately restrictive and neutral."
A report released by the World Gold Council (WGC) on Thursday showed that global gold ETFs (exchange-traded funds) saw net inflows of 54.9 tonnes in October. Demand was strong in North America (+47.2 tonnes) and Asia (+44.8 tonnes), while Europe experienced an outflow of 37.4 tonnes.
A report from the People's Bank of China shows that as of the end of October, China's gold reserves rose slightly to 74.09 million ounces, up from 74.06 million ounces at the end of September. The value of the gold reserves increased to US$297.21 billion, compared to US$283.29 billion in the previous month.
Looking ahead, the focus of the U.S. economic calendar will be on the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, to be released later that day. Against the backdrop of ongoing economic uncertainty, this data could provide new clues about household confidence.
Technical Analysis: Gold is fluctuating around $4,000 with weak momentum.
(4-hour chart of spot gold source: EasyForex)
Gold continues to trade within a narrow range, with prices largely confined to the $3,900-$4,050 range over the past two weeks. On the 4-hour chart, the market is dominated by range-bound trading, with multiple attempts to break through the $4,020-$4,050 range encountering strong resistance, while the $3,900 area continues to provide solid support.
The 50-period simple moving average (SMA), currently around $3986, is providing short-term support. Unless the price decisively breaks out of either end of this range, gold may remain directionless in the short term.
Momentum indicators also support this neutral view. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 52, indicating a balance between bullish and bearish momentum. The Directional Movement Index (ADX) is 13, showing weak trend strength and further confirming the current sideways consolidation pattern.
At 01:42 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $3,997.87 per ounce, up 0.53%.
Global stock indices edged lower, influenced by weakness in US technology and AI-related stocks, while cooling risk appetite provided modest support for gold. Investors remained wary of overvalued prices and the possibility of further market corrections, prompting some funds to shift towards defensive assets.
Worrying signs are emerging in the US economy, with the ongoing government shutdown raising concerns about its potential economic impact, while the labor market is showing signs of cooling. These factors have all contributed to safe-haven buying of gold.
However, traders are reassessing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook, resulting in a lack of strong follow-through buying in gold. Recent data and cautious comments from policymakers have created market uncertainty, and gold is largely trading within a range ahead of the weekend.
Market drivers: US policy deadlock and labor market pressures disrupt the market.
The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 38th day, with little progress in bipartisan negotiations on reaching a funding agreement. Senate Majority Leader John Thune proposed a vote on a new temporary funding bill later Friday to keep the government running until January. However, negotiations are deadlocked, with Democrats advocating for the inclusion of healthcare and social spending measures in the bill, while Republicans support a plain appropriations bill without additional clauses.
The government shutdown has delayed the release of key official economic indicators, forcing investors and policymakers to rely on private sector data to assess the health of the economy. The latest Challenger job cuts report shows that U.S. employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October, the highest monthly figure since 2003. This contrasts sharply with Wednesday's ADP employment report, which showed 42,000 new private sector jobs added during the same period.
A series of hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials on Thursday exacerbated market caution. Chicago Fed President Goolsby emphasized the stability of the labor market and noted that further rate cuts should be approached with caution due to the lack of inflation data caused by the government shutdown. Cleveland Fed President Hammark stressed inflation risks, stating that the current policy stance is "only slightly restrictive," while St. Louis Fed President Mussallam said that current policy is "between moderately restrictive and neutral."
A report released by the World Gold Council (WGC) on Thursday showed that global gold ETFs (exchange-traded funds) saw net inflows of 54.9 tonnes in October. Demand was strong in North America (+47.2 tonnes) and Asia (+44.8 tonnes), while Europe experienced an outflow of 37.4 tonnes.
A report from the People's Bank of China shows that as of the end of October, China's gold reserves rose slightly to 74.09 million ounces, up from 74.06 million ounces at the end of September. The value of the gold reserves increased to US$297.21 billion, compared to US$283.29 billion in the previous month.
Looking ahead, the focus of the U.S. economic calendar will be on the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, to be released later that day. Against the backdrop of ongoing economic uncertainty, this data could provide new clues about household confidence.
Technical Analysis: Gold is fluctuating around $4,000 with weak momentum.
(4-hour chart of spot gold source: EasyForex)
Gold continues to trade within a narrow range, with prices largely confined to the $3,900-$4,050 range over the past two weeks. On the 4-hour chart, the market is dominated by range-bound trading, with multiple attempts to break through the $4,020-$4,050 range encountering strong resistance, while the $3,900 area continues to provide solid support.
The 50-period simple moving average (SMA), currently around $3986, is providing short-term support. Unless the price decisively breaks out of either end of this range, gold may remain directionless in the short term.
Momentum indicators also support this neutral view. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 52, indicating a balance between bullish and bearish momentum. The Directional Movement Index (ADX) is 13, showing weak trend strength and further confirming the current sideways consolidation pattern.
At 01:42 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $3,997.87 per ounce, up 0.53%.
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