Ukrainian officials took urgent action over the weekend in an attempt to regain the initiative lost in negotiations with the United States on a peace plan to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While demonstrating a willingness to participate in dialogue, Kyiv must carefully strike a balance—showing the US its willingness to negotiate while also urgently seeking to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity.



US and Ukrainian officials held talks in Switzerland last weekend. Earlier reports indicated that Russia and the White House held secret consultations last week and drafted a 28-point peace plan, most of which favored Russia's demands.

This proposal, in which Ukraine was not involved, contains several controversial clauses: demanding territorial and military concessions from Ukraine in the eastern Donbas region, reducing its army size by 50%, and other proposals that touch upon Ukraine's "red lines."

Although Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his European allies initially reacted coldly to media reports about the "peace plan," some analysts say it amounts to a surrender to a position that maximizes Russia's territorial claims.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum to Kyiv, demanding a response to the plan by Thursday (November 27), while Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed support for the plan, stating that it forms the basis for a "final peace agreement."

Last Friday, Zelensky broke his silence in response to the proposal, saying that Ukraine is facing one of the most difficult moments in its history, essentially choosing between "losing dignity or losing a key partner"—the key partner he was referring to being the United States.

Pressure Negotiation

Trump added further pressure on Saturday by posting on Truth Social that Ukraine was “completely ungrateful” for U.S. peace efforts, adding extra pressure to the talks between the two sides on Sunday.

While few details were revealed during the talks, they are believed to have progressed smoothly. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio consulted with a delegation led by Andriy Yermak, chief advisor to Ukrainian President Zelensky. Rubio stated that "significant progress" had been made, and the negotiating teams had drafted an "updated and improved peace framework," from which work would begin this week.

Although Ukraine may have accepted the fact that it is difficult to join NATO (one of Russia's main demands), this also means that future security guarantees will be crucial for Kyiv.

Kyiv has repeatedly reiterated its position, emphasizing that what it needs is a "just and lasting peace," not a ceasefire agreement that cannot stand the test of time.

When asked whether U.S.-Ukraine security guarantees would be included in the document, Rubio gave a vague response last Sunday, only saying: "I think we all realize that to completely end this conflict, Ukraine must feel safe and ensure that it will never be invaded or attacked again. This is obviously something that must be discussed. I think we have made substantial progress on this issue and other key points."

Rubio acknowledged last Sunday that progress in negotiations with Ukraine depends on Russia's approval, stating, "Whatever agreement we reach today, it's clear we must now submit it to the Russian side—provided we can reach an agreement with the Ukrainian side for it to be a complete solution. The Russian side must agree to this plan for it to take effect."

On Monday, Trump posted on Truth Social questioning the progress of the negotiations, saying, "Is it really possible for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine to make significant progress? Seeing is believing, but perhaps some good things are indeed happening."

Red line

Zelenskyy stated that the talks were "substantial." He emphasized on social media on Monday: "Every joint action with partner countries must be carefully planned. All decisions must be practical to ensure lasting peace and security… We will jointly defend each other's interests and people."

Ukrainian lawmaker Gonacharenko said on Monday that he hoped the latest round of negotiations would be fruitful, but stressed that security guarantees were "absolutely crucial."

Gonacharenko stated: "Some parts of this peace proposal are unacceptable to Ukraine, and some clauses need to be revised, but overall we finally have a framework, and we should work on improving it based on this—that is the significance of diplomacy."

Besides security guarantees, Ukraine's other red lines in the proposal involve the original 28-point plan's demand for its armed forces to relinquish parts of the Donbas region that it still controls, including several heavily fortified strategic towns.

Gonacharenko stated, "I think this is unacceptable for Ukraine because we cannot simply abandon our people."

He said, "The position that the conflict should be frozen and a peace agreement should be reached on the current front line has been reiterated many times, and I think we must stick to it."

Analysis of the potential impact on crude oil prices

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has long injected a "geopolitical risk premium" into the crude oil market, meaning investors are willing to pay higher oil prices due to concerns about supply disruptions caused by the conflict. Any progress in the current negotiations will primarily affect the level of this risk premium.

The current situation is creating a "bad news is good news" environment for oil prices—the more "good news" about peace, the greater the "bad impact" on oil prices. Traders are weighing the probability of increased supply security from the increased likelihood of peace against the risk of a breakdown in negotiations.

On Tuesday, US crude oil prices fluctuated around $58.80 per barrel.



(US crude oil daily chart, source: FX678)

At 10:44 Beijing time, US crude oil futures were trading at $58.77 per barrel.