The USD/JPY pair retreated from its highs due to concerns about Japanese intervention in the currency market.
2025-11-25 22:03:14
On Tuesday (November 25), the USD/JPY exchange rate weakened during the European session, mainly due to market speculation that Japanese authorities might intervene to support the currency. The USD/JPY initially rose to around 157.0 before trending downwards, eventually hitting a low of 156.28 at the close, exhibiting an overall pattern of "rising and falling back + weak fluctuations".
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's advisor, Takuji Aida, stated that Tokyo is prepared to actively intervene in the foreign exchange market to offset the negative impact of the weak yen on the economy.
Japanese Economy Minister Mamoru Kiuchi stated that the government is paying close attention to currency trends, including various speculative activities, with a high degree of urgency.
Last Friday, Finance Minister Katayama stated at a press conference that if the yen depreciates sharply again, falling to the 158-160 yen range, then the risk of government intervention certainly exists.
Since Sanae Takaichi was elected prime minister in early October, the yen has continued to weaken against the dollar. The Takaichi government launched a large-scale new fiscal stimulus package and signaled its support for loose monetary policy.
In the US, Federal Reserve Chairman Christopher Woller made dovish remarks on Monday, stating that current data indicates the US job market remains weak, therefore the central bank is very likely to cut interest rates by another 0.25 percentage points at its December meeting. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the market sees an 80% probability of a rate cut next month.
Technical Analysis
(USD/JPY 1-hour chart source: EasyForex)
The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently trading within a downward correction range. The Alligator indicator has turned downward, confirming the current dominance of bearish momentum. Local support is located at the 156.20 level.
The KD indicator is in the 20-50 range (neutral to weak), indicating that short-term bearish forces are in control, but it has not yet entered the oversold zone (<20), suggesting that downward momentum may slow down. The RSI indicator is in the 30-50 range (weak zone), not yet oversold (<30), indicating that current bullish momentum is insufficient, but the downside potential may be limited.
Today's outlook for USD/JPY suggests that if the bears maintain their dominance, the exchange rate may continue to fall towards 156.20; only if the bulls push the exchange rate above the 157.00 level will there be room for upward movement towards 158.00.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's advisor, Takuji Aida, stated that Tokyo is prepared to actively intervene in the foreign exchange market to offset the negative impact of the weak yen on the economy.
Japanese Economy Minister Mamoru Kiuchi stated that the government is paying close attention to currency trends, including various speculative activities, with a high degree of urgency.
Last Friday, Finance Minister Katayama stated at a press conference that if the yen depreciates sharply again, falling to the 158-160 yen range, then the risk of government intervention certainly exists.
Since Sanae Takaichi was elected prime minister in early October, the yen has continued to weaken against the dollar. The Takaichi government launched a large-scale new fiscal stimulus package and signaled its support for loose monetary policy.
In the US, Federal Reserve Chairman Christopher Woller made dovish remarks on Monday, stating that current data indicates the US job market remains weak, therefore the central bank is very likely to cut interest rates by another 0.25 percentage points at its December meeting. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the market sees an 80% probability of a rate cut next month.
Technical Analysis
(USD/JPY 1-hour chart source: EasyForex)
The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently trading within a downward correction range. The Alligator indicator has turned downward, confirming the current dominance of bearish momentum. Local support is located at the 156.20 level.
The KD indicator is in the 20-50 range (neutral to weak), indicating that short-term bearish forces are in control, but it has not yet entered the oversold zone (<20), suggesting that downward momentum may slow down. The RSI indicator is in the 30-50 range (weak zone), not yet oversold (<30), indicating that current bullish momentum is insufficient, but the downside potential may be limited.
Today's outlook for USD/JPY suggests that if the bears maintain their dominance, the exchange rate may continue to fall towards 156.20; only if the bulls push the exchange rate above the 157.00 level will there be room for upward movement towards 158.00.
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