Trump claims only minor differences remain in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks, and Kyiv has reportedly accepted the framework of the proposal. Is this a sign that oil prices are about to plummet?
2025-11-26 11:20:45
Several media outlets reported on Tuesday (November 25) that Ukrainian officials were willing to advance a peace negotiation framework with US support to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, although key details remained unresolved. ABC News and CBS both cited an anonymous US official as saying that Ukraine had "agreed" to the agreement, but some issues still needed to be addressed. It is unclear whether the two media outlets cited the same US official.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said late Tuesday that Kyiv is prepared to move forward with the peace framework. The report cited Zelenskyy's address to the coalition of allies.
U.S. President Donald Trump said at the White House on Tuesday, "I think we're very close to a deal. We'll see... I think we're making progress." Later that afternoon, Trump posted on social media, "There are only a few issues left to agree on." He appointed U.S. Special Envoy Steve Vitkov to travel to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and stated that U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll "will meet with the Ukrainian side."
Trump wrote: "I look forward to meeting with President Zelensky and President Putin as soon as possible, but only after an agreement to end the conflict is finalized, or at the final stage of an agreement."
This post came after U.S. officials met with a Ukrainian delegation in Geneva over the weekend to make significant revisions to Washington's initial 28-point peace plan, which is widely considered highly favorable to Russia. In his Tuesday post, Trump acknowledged that the plan had been "fine-tuned and incorporated additional input from both sides."
Ukrainian National Security Secretary Rustem Umerov posted on the X platform: "The two delegations reached a consensus on the core terms of the agreement discussed in Geneva." However, it remains uncertain whether Russia will agree to the revised peace plan, which has reportedly been reduced to 19 points.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that any agreement must reflect the consensus reached by Trump and Putin at the Alaska summit in August. It was reported that officials from Kyiv and Moscow met with Driscoll in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, on Tuesday.
The Kremlin remained tight-lipped about the content of the talks, with Putin's press secretary, Peskov, telling reporters overnight, "We still have nothing to say," adding that the Kremlin was "closely monitoring media reports."
Peskov stated, "We understand that negotiations between the United States and Ukraine are still ongoing. It is understood that the published text is being revised; the text we previously obtained through informal channels has indeed been altered. At some point, we may also establish contact with the US side and formally obtain relevant information. However, we have not yet received any new information."
The initial 28-point peace plan, drafted by the US, was proposed without consultation with Ukraine and included several controversial clauses, such as demanding that Ukraine cede parts of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, which is occupied by Russian forces. The original plan also required a 50% reduction in the Ukrainian military and made several other proposals that touched upon Ukraine's "red lines."
The Trump administration had pressured Ukraine to accept the agreement before Thanksgiving on Thursday, prompting Zelensky to say on Friday that Ukraine faced a dilemma of "losing dignity or losing a key ally."
The deadline now appears to have been lifted. It remains unclear how many of the original proposal's terms are retained in the latest version of the potential peace agreement.
The breakthrough in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks is a bearish signal that cannot be ignored in the current crude oil market. It is gradually removing the risk premium that has been ingrained in the oil market since the conflict began. On Tuesday, US crude oil fell nearly 3% intraday, hitting a one-month low of $57.10 per barrel, before closing at $58.11 per barrel. On Wednesday in Asian trading, US crude oil prices rose slightly by 0.40%, currently trading around $58.20 per barrel.
Investors should closely monitor Russia's official statements regarding the revised peace plan in the next 24-48 hours, as well as developments after the original "deadline" of November 27. If a clear signal emerges that Russia, Ukraine, and the United States jointly confirm the success of the negotiations, international oil prices may begin a period of decline.
(US crude oil daily chart, source: FX678)
At 11:19 Beijing time, US crude oil futures were trading at $58.19 per barrel.
Statements from various parties reveal new developments in the peace agreement process.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said late Tuesday that Kyiv is prepared to move forward with the peace framework. The report cited Zelenskyy's address to the coalition of allies.
U.S. President Donald Trump said at the White House on Tuesday, "I think we're very close to a deal. We'll see... I think we're making progress." Later that afternoon, Trump posted on social media, "There are only a few issues left to agree on." He appointed U.S. Special Envoy Steve Vitkov to travel to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and stated that U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll "will meet with the Ukrainian side."
Trump wrote: "I look forward to meeting with President Zelensky and President Putin as soon as possible, but only after an agreement to end the conflict is finalized, or at the final stage of an agreement."
The focus of the negotiation on the terms of the agreement and Russia's attitude has become the key issue.
This post came after U.S. officials met with a Ukrainian delegation in Geneva over the weekend to make significant revisions to Washington's initial 28-point peace plan, which is widely considered highly favorable to Russia. In his Tuesday post, Trump acknowledged that the plan had been "fine-tuned and incorporated additional input from both sides."
Ukrainian National Security Secretary Rustem Umerov posted on the X platform: "The two delegations reached a consensus on the core terms of the agreement discussed in Geneva." However, it remains uncertain whether Russia will agree to the revised peace plan, which has reportedly been reduced to 19 points.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that any agreement must reflect the consensus reached by Trump and Putin at the Alaska summit in August. It was reported that officials from Kyiv and Moscow met with Driscoll in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, on Tuesday.
The Kremlin remained tight-lipped about the content of the talks, with Putin's press secretary, Peskov, telling reporters overnight, "We still have nothing to say," adding that the Kremlin was "closely monitoring media reports."
Peskov stated, "We understand that negotiations between the United States and Ukraine are still ongoing. It is understood that the published text is being revised; the text we previously obtained through informal channels has indeed been altered. At some point, we may also establish contact with the US side and formally obtain relevant information. However, we have not yet received any new information."
The initial 28-point peace plan, drafted by the US, was proposed without consultation with Ukraine and included several controversial clauses, such as demanding that Ukraine cede parts of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, which is occupied by Russian forces. The original plan also required a 50% reduction in the Ukrainian military and made several other proposals that touched upon Ukraine's "red lines."
The Trump administration had pressured Ukraine to accept the agreement before Thanksgiving on Thursday, prompting Zelensky to say on Friday that Ukraine faced a dilemma of "losing dignity or losing a key ally."
The deadline now appears to have been lifted. It remains unclear how many of the original proposal's terms are retained in the latest version of the potential peace agreement.
Oil price pressure risk increases sharply
The breakthrough in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks is a bearish signal that cannot be ignored in the current crude oil market. It is gradually removing the risk premium that has been ingrained in the oil market since the conflict began. On Tuesday, US crude oil fell nearly 3% intraday, hitting a one-month low of $57.10 per barrel, before closing at $58.11 per barrel. On Wednesday in Asian trading, US crude oil prices rose slightly by 0.40%, currently trading around $58.20 per barrel.
Investors should closely monitor Russia's official statements regarding the revised peace plan in the next 24-48 hours, as well as developments after the original "deadline" of November 27. If a clear signal emerges that Russia, Ukraine, and the United States jointly confirm the success of the negotiations, international oil prices may begin a period of decline.
(US crude oil daily chart, source: FX678)
At 11:19 Beijing time, US crude oil futures were trading at $58.19 per barrel.
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