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[Oil Prices Fall to Cost Line, Supply Shocks and Employment Pains: A Mixed Bag for the US Economy] ⑴ Low oil prices are offering solace to US consumers. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration, the average price at gas stations is currently around $2.80, the lowest level since the beginning of 2021, significantly easing fuel expenditure pressures for low- and middle-income groups. ⑵ However, increased supply is impacting the US oil industry. Trump's tariff rhetoric and the potential addition of 30 to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil supply have exacerbated market concerns about further price declines. The US benchmark oil price has fallen from its high to around $60. ⑶ Low oil prices have begun to suppress industry investment and employment. Data from the US Department of Labor shows that despite overall job growth, oil and gas exploration employment has declined since last spring. A Federal Reserve report indicates that the price outlook will dampen related capital expenditures in Texas. ⑷ The industry's resilience is nearing its threshold. Industry executives point out that if oil prices fall to $50, many projects will be suspended, and independent producers will face severe cash flow challenges, potentially leading to a further contraction in exploration activity. (5) Efficiency improvements cannot fully offset price shocks. The number of active drilling rigs in Texas has declined for three consecutive years, and companies are maintaining production with less equipment and manpower. However, if oil prices continue to fall, a wave of layoffs may reappear. (6) Historical cycles foreshadow risks. The oil price crash after 2014 led to the loss of tens of thousands of jobs. Currently, companies such as Chevron have announced layoff plans, and total industry employment has fallen significantly from its 2015 peak. (7) The economic impact is complex. Studies show that the boost to consumer spending from low oil prices may be offset by a decline in industrial investment. The current status of the United States as a net exporter has fundamentally changed the structure of the economy's sensitivity to oil price fluctuations. (8) Future market focus will be on whether oil prices can find support near the industry's break-even point, and whether new supply will trigger broader cost reductions and employment contraction, thereby partially offsetting the economic gains on the consumption side.