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2026-01-09 18:08:30
[German Industrial Output Unexpectedly Rises, But Trend Remains Stagnant; Structural Challenges Continue to Hinder Outlook] ⑴ German industrial output unexpectedly rose in November, mainly driven by a recovery in automobile production, offering a glimmer of hope for a weak manufacturing sector. ⑵ Commerzbank economist Vincent Starmer points out that production data for October and November were 1.9% higher than the third-quarter average, raising hopes that manufacturing will make a positive contribution to fourth-quarter economic output. ⑶ However, this quarter-end growth is likely only offsetting the summer slump; overall industrial output has been stagnant since 2024 and is currently fluctuating sideways at low levels. ⑷ Weak export data reveals deeper pressures; exports fell 2.5% month-on-month in November, indicating that insufficient external demand is the core constraint. ⑸ Analysts attribute the weak exports to the combined effect of multiple structural challenges, including the impact of Trump's tariff rhetoric, increased competition from China, and a stronger euro. ⑹ Starmer emphasizes that there are currently no signs of this predicament easing, meaning that the stagnant trend in German industry is unlikely to reverse in the short term.
