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2026-01-09 18:16:14
[US Inflation Data Returns in earnest; December CPI becomes key to policy; market examines new benchmarks for interest rate cuts] ⑴ After a 43-day government shutdown that disrupted data releases, the release of key US economic data is returning to normal, with market focus on the upcoming December Consumer Price Index (CPI). ⑵ This data, scheduled for release on Tuesday, January 13th, is a core indicator for assessing US inflation trends and the Federal Reserve's future policy path, helping investors judge the prospect of further near-term interest rate cuts. ⑶ Although the year-on-year CPI increase in November showed signs of slowing, the persistently high inflation rate above the Fed's 2% target remains a potential obstacle to further policy easing, and there are concerns in the market about a resurgence of inflation. ⑷ This CPI report is one of the last key data releases before the Fed's monetary policy meeting on January 27-28. The market widely expects the meeting to keep interest rates unchanged, but after three consecutive rate cuts in 2025, investors are betting on at least two more 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026. (5) Therefore, the specific reading of the December CPI will directly affect the market's judgment on inflation stickiness and may reshape expectations on the timing and magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cuts, becoming a key indicator of short-term market sentiment.
