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2026-01-09 18:32:39
[Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Goldman Sachs Predicts 70,000 New Jobs, Moderate Private Sector Growth, Unemployment Rate Expected to Decline Slightly] ⑴ Goldman Sachs predicts that US non-farm payrolls will increase by 70,000 in December, a forecast largely consistent with the average economist forecast (73,000) from a Wall Street Journal survey. ⑵ On the positive side, Goldman Sachs analysts point out that big data indicators show private sector employment is growing at a moderate pace, and seasonal adjustments typically support employment data in December. ⑶ On the negative side, Goldman Sachs expects government employment to decrease by 5,000, while construction employment growth, after unusually strong November and adverse weather conditions at the beginning of the survey, is expected to slow month-on-month. ⑷ Goldman Sachs also predicts that the unemployment rate will decline slightly to 4.5% in December from 4.6% in November, indicating a possible slight easing of tensions in the labor market. ⑸ Overall, market expectations point to a generally robust job market, but with potentially slower growth momentum. Key data will be released tonight, and its results will directly impact market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy path.
