US President Donald Trump asserted that it is primarily Ukraine, not Russia, that is hindering a potential peace agreement. In stark contrast to the positions of his European allies, Trump suggested that Moscow is ready to end the conflict, while Kyiv remains hesitant. In the short term, Trump's shift in stance reduces the risk of escalation, which is bearish for gold. On Thursday (January 15th) during Asian trading hours, spot gold fluctuated downwards, falling as much as 0.92% to $4583 per ounce, but bargain hunting provided support, and it has currently rebounded to around $4610, a daily decline of approximately 0.3%.



On Wednesday, Trump said Russian President Vladimir Putin was ready to end the nearly four-year-long conflict. The US president claimed that his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, was the one who had shown hesitation.

Speaking about Putin, Trump said, "I think he's ready to make a deal," adding, "I don't think Ukraine is very ready to make a deal."

When asked why US-led negotiations failed to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Trump gave a one-word answer: "Zelensky."

History of turbulent relations

Trump's remarks suggest his frustration with the Ukrainian leader, with whom he has a notoriously turbulent relationship. While interactions appeared to improve in Trump's first year back in the White House, this latest statement underscores underlying friction.

Historically, Trump has sometimes seemed more receptive to assurances from Putin than to statements from U.S. allies, a stance that has previously frustrated some Republican lawmakers in Kyiv, European capitals, and even Washington.

This view contrasts with a December report from US intelligence agencies, which warned that Putin had not abandoned his continued operations. At the time, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard disputed that assessment.

Current Status of US-led Peace Efforts

According to reports, recent US-led negotiations have focused primarily on providing security guarantees for postwar Ukraine. As part of a potential agreement, US negotiators have urged Ukraine to consider relinquishing its eastern Donbas region.

Ukrainian officials were deeply involved in these negotiations, with U.S. envoy Steve Vitkov and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner leading the discussions. However, some European officials expressed doubt that Putin would agree to the terms being discussed by leaders in Kyiv, Washington, and Europe.

Trump said he was unaware that Vitkov and Kushner might travel to Moscow, a possibility that was only reported on Wednesday.

The Davos meeting is imminent

Looking ahead, a meeting between the two leaders may be imminent. When asked if he would meet with Zelensky at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland next week, Trump confirmed that he would meet if the Ukrainian president was in attendance.

Trump said, "If he's there, I will, I'll go there."

Trump did not elaborate on why he believed Zelensky had reservations about reaching an agreement, only saying, "I just think, you know, it's difficult for him to get to that point."

As for Zelensky, he has publicly and consistently ruled out the possibility of making any territorial concessions, arguing that the country's constitution does not allow it to relinquish any territory.

Analysis of potential impact on the gold market

In the short term, Trump's change in stance has reduced the risk of escalation of the conflict, which is bearish for gold.

However, in the medium to long term, this move damages the credibility of US policy and may lead to broader geopolitical instability, ultimately benefiting gold's safe-haven and monetary attributes.

The market will be closely watching whether the US reduces aid to Ukraine and Europe's reaction, as these will be key indicators affecting gold prices.



(Spot gold daily chart, source: FX678)

At 10:10 Beijing time, spot gold is currently trading at $4,611.72 per ounce.