Geopolitical tensions supported a gold price rebound; attention should be paid to US employment and the Federal Reserve's actions.
2026-02-19 09:02:29
Gold prices stabilized and rebounded around $4,960 during Asian trading hours on Thursday. This followed a shift in market sentiment towards caution due to geopolitical uncertainty, leading to a renewed influx of safe-haven buying into the precious metals market.
The US Vice President stated that Iran failed to respond to key US demands, and the US government is giving Tehran two weeks to bridge the differences. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump reserves the option of using force in the event of diplomatic failure.
These comments have reinforced market concerns about an escalation of tensions in the Middle East. If the risk of conflict intensifies, gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, will benefit. On the other hand, recent holidays in many parts of the world have led to low market liquidity.
Some institutions have pointed out that gold price fluctuations tend to be mild during holidays, and the pullback may provide a window for medium- to long-term investors to position themselves.
Regarding the US dollar, the minutes of the Fed's January meeting showed that some officials remained cautious about the inflation outlook, and even mentioned that if inflation remained stubborn, it might be necessary to raise interest rates again.
This statement led the market to slightly lower its expectations for interest rate cuts this year, boosting demand for the dollar and putting downward pressure on dollar-denominated gold. However, federal funds rate futures still suggest a probability of a rate cut in June, which will continue to support gold prices in the medium term.
Overall, gold is currently caught in a tug-of-war between support from geopolitical risks and pressure from a rebounding US dollar. Short-term price movements will depend on US economic data and further statements from Federal Reserve officials.
From the daily chart, gold found support around the $4850 area after consolidating at previous highs, resulting in a technical rebound. Overall, the price remains within an upward trend channel, and the medium-term structure has not been broken.
In terms of moving averages, gold prices remain above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which are arranged in a bullish pattern, indicating a solid trend. If the price can effectively hold above the $5,000 level, it may further challenge the $5,030 and $5,060 areas.
In terms of momentum indicators, the RSI remains around 60, indicating that bullish momentum still dominates but has not entered the extreme overbought zone; the MACD is still above the zero axis, and the momentum bars are slightly converging, suggesting that the pace of the rise has slowed down.
If the price breaks below the key support level of $4,900, it may retest the $4,850 and $4,800 areas in the short term; however, as long as it holds above $4,900, the medium-term upward trend remains intact.
Editor's Note:
The current core of gold's price movement lies in the tug-of-war between geopolitical risks and monetary policy expectations. If tensions in the Middle East continue, safe-haven buying may push gold prices to retest the $5,000 mark.
However, if the US dollar continues to rebound, supported by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, the upside potential for gold prices will be limited. Gold may maintain a high-level consolidation pattern before the release of US economic data. Be wary of rapid fluctuations driven by news.
The US Vice President stated that Iran failed to respond to key US demands, and the US government is giving Tehran two weeks to bridge the differences. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump reserves the option of using force in the event of diplomatic failure.
These comments have reinforced market concerns about an escalation of tensions in the Middle East. If the risk of conflict intensifies, gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, will benefit. On the other hand, recent holidays in many parts of the world have led to low market liquidity.
Some institutions have pointed out that gold price fluctuations tend to be mild during holidays, and the pullback may provide a window for medium- to long-term investors to position themselves.
Regarding the US dollar, the minutes of the Fed's January meeting showed that some officials remained cautious about the inflation outlook, and even mentioned that if inflation remained stubborn, it might be necessary to raise interest rates again.
This statement led the market to slightly lower its expectations for interest rate cuts this year, boosting demand for the dollar and putting downward pressure on dollar-denominated gold. However, federal funds rate futures still suggest a probability of a rate cut in June, which will continue to support gold prices in the medium term.
Overall, gold is currently caught in a tug-of-war between support from geopolitical risks and pressure from a rebounding US dollar. Short-term price movements will depend on US economic data and further statements from Federal Reserve officials.
From the daily chart, gold found support around the $4850 area after consolidating at previous highs, resulting in a technical rebound. Overall, the price remains within an upward trend channel, and the medium-term structure has not been broken.
In terms of moving averages, gold prices remain above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which are arranged in a bullish pattern, indicating a solid trend. If the price can effectively hold above the $5,000 level, it may further challenge the $5,030 and $5,060 areas.
In terms of momentum indicators, the RSI remains around 60, indicating that bullish momentum still dominates but has not entered the extreme overbought zone; the MACD is still above the zero axis, and the momentum bars are slightly converging, suggesting that the pace of the rise has slowed down.
If the price breaks below the key support level of $4,900, it may retest the $4,850 and $4,800 areas in the short term; however, as long as it holds above $4,900, the medium-term upward trend remains intact.
Editor's Note:
The current core of gold's price movement lies in the tug-of-war between geopolitical risks and monetary policy expectations. If tensions in the Middle East continue, safe-haven buying may push gold prices to retest the $5,000 mark.
However, if the US dollar continues to rebound, supported by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, the upside potential for gold prices will be limited. Gold may maintain a high-level consolidation pattern before the release of US economic data. Be wary of rapid fluctuations driven by news.
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- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
