The dollar weakened, coupled with rising risk aversion, leading to a continued correction in the USD/JPY pair.
2026-02-23 08:58:34
On Monday morning in Asia, the USD/JPY pair edged lower to around 154.00, with the US dollar generally weak. Tariff uncertainty once again became the focus of the market.
US President Trump criticized the Supreme Court for overturning its emergency powers to impose so-called "reciprocal tariffs" and said he would raise global tariffs from 10% to 15% while launching more investigative measures.
Repeated policy changes have heightened market risk aversion, weakening support for the US dollar's risk appetite. In Japan, the latest data shows that the national CPI rose 1.5% year-on-year in January, lower than December's 2.1%, marking the lowest level since March 2022.
Core inflation fell to 2%, in line with the Bank of Japan's target. The cooling inflation eased market bets on an immediate interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, thus curbing the yen's appreciation momentum and limiting the downside for USD/JPY.
In addition, the Japanese prime minister stated after winning the election that he would provide funds for necessary expenditures through the initial budget as much as possible, and gradually reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio to restore fiscal sustainability.
If fiscal policy leans towards expansion, it may put temporary pressure on the yen.
The daily chart shows that USD/JPY encountered resistance above 155.00 and fell back, indicating weakening short-term momentum. The MACD is showing initial signs of a bearish crossover at a high level, and the RSI is retreating from overbought territory, suggesting a slowdown in the upward trend.
The 4-hour chart shows that 154.00 is a key short-term support level. If it breaks below this level, it may further test the 153.20 area. Resistance levels are at 155.00 and 155.80. The overall structure has shifted from a one-sided upward trend to high-level consolidation.
Editor's Note:
The US dollar is currently weighed down by policy uncertainty, but the decline in Japanese inflation has also weakened the yen's fundamental support, resulting in a mild pullback rather than a trend reversal in the exchange rate.
In the short term, pay attention to the US PPI data. If inflation rebounds, the US dollar may regain support; if the data is weak, USD/JPY may fall further. Monitor the effectiveness of the 154.00 support level and wait for fundamental catalysts to clarify the direction.
US President Trump criticized the Supreme Court for overturning its emergency powers to impose so-called "reciprocal tariffs" and said he would raise global tariffs from 10% to 15% while launching more investigative measures.
Repeated policy changes have heightened market risk aversion, weakening support for the US dollar's risk appetite. In Japan, the latest data shows that the national CPI rose 1.5% year-on-year in January, lower than December's 2.1%, marking the lowest level since March 2022.
Core inflation fell to 2%, in line with the Bank of Japan's target. The cooling inflation eased market bets on an immediate interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, thus curbing the yen's appreciation momentum and limiting the downside for USD/JPY.
In addition, the Japanese prime minister stated after winning the election that he would provide funds for necessary expenditures through the initial budget as much as possible, and gradually reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio to restore fiscal sustainability.
If fiscal policy leans towards expansion, it may put temporary pressure on the yen.
The daily chart shows that USD/JPY encountered resistance above 155.00 and fell back, indicating weakening short-term momentum. The MACD is showing initial signs of a bearish crossover at a high level, and the RSI is retreating from overbought territory, suggesting a slowdown in the upward trend.
The 4-hour chart shows that 154.00 is a key short-term support level. If it breaks below this level, it may further test the 153.20 area. Resistance levels are at 155.00 and 155.80. The overall structure has shifted from a one-sided upward trend to high-level consolidation.
Editor's Note:
The US dollar is currently weighed down by policy uncertainty, but the decline in Japanese inflation has also weakened the yen's fundamental support, resulting in a mild pullback rather than a trend reversal in the exchange rate.
In the short term, pay attention to the US PPI data. If inflation rebounds, the US dollar may regain support; if the data is weak, USD/JPY may fall further. Monitor the effectiveness of the 154.00 support level and wait for fundamental catalysts to clarify the direction.
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