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2026-02-26 17:40:09
[Low Inventories, European Gas Prices Closely Monitor US-Iran Tensions] ⑴ European natural gas prices fluctuated around €30 per megawatt-hour on Thursday. Despite short-term support from warmer weather expectations and ample liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies, the benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas futures contract fell slightly by 1.1%, closing at €30.58. ⑵ However, fundamental concerns remain. Analysts point out that current gas storage rates across the EU are generally only around 30%, far below the five-year average of 47%. At the current rate of consumption, inventory levels are expected to be close to or even lower than those during the same period of the 2022 energy crisis by the end of this heating season. ⑶ Geopolitical risks are currently the focus of traders. The market is closely watching the ongoing US-Iran negotiations. Any unexpected developments that could escalate the situation could pose a potential threat to LNG shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. (4) Although some analysts believe that the possibility of such an extreme situation is low, even a small disturbance on the supply side may be amplified by the market during a sensitive period when inventories are at historically low levels, exacerbating the risk of gas price volatility.
