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2026-02-26 17:45:28
[India Issues March Temperature Warning, Wheat and Rapeseed Production at Risk] ⑴ An internal source at the Indian Meteorological Department revealed on Thursday that the country is about to experience one of the hottest Marches on record. In key producing states such as Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, daytime temperatures are expected to be above average on some days, with local deviations reaching up to 7 degrees Celsius. ⑵ This unusually high temperature coincides with the critical grain-filling and ripening stages of wheat and rapeseed crops. The Meteorological Department indicated that persistently above-average high and low temperatures could directly impact crop yields, posing a substantial threat to the upcoming winter harvest. Currently, while India's wheat and rapeseed planting area has reached a record high, the production outlook is being clouded by weather factors. ⑶ From a market structure perspective, as the world's second-largest wheat producer and the largest importer of edible oil, India's production fluctuations have a significant impact on global trade flows. Back in 2022, the country was forced to implement an export ban due to reduced wheat production caused by high temperatures in February and March. (4) Private sector analysts warn that if the high temperatures persist throughout the first half of March, it will exacerbate heat stress in crops. This could not only reduce previously expected record yields but also force India to increase edible oil imports later in the month, thus supporting global palm oil, soybean oil, and other prices. Currently, official agencies have not yet released March temperature forecasts, and the market is awaiting final data to assess the actual impact.
