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2026-02-26 17:52:50
[Fitch: Zimbabwe's Lithium Restrictions May Be a Step Ahead of Congo's Cobalt Restrictions] ⑴ Commodity analysts at BMI, a Fitch Solutions division, point out that Zimbabwe's lithium export restrictions may be more effective than Congo's cobalt restrictions, particularly in promoting the development of its domestic processing industry. ⑵ The key difference lies in market share. Zimbabwe's lithium production accounts for approximately 10% of global production, a proportion that gives it a certain degree of influence in the lithium supply chain, making it difficult to circumvent. At the same time, this share is insufficient to drastically drive up international prices like Congo's (which accounts for 75% of global cobalt production) export restrictions, thus avoiding the risk of disrupting downstream demand. ⑶ The analyst further explains that lithium faces a much smaller threat of substitution in battery technology compared to cobalt. This means the market is more dependent on lithium, providing a more solid demand foundation for resource-rich countries to implement localized processing strategies. ⑷ In summary, Zimbabwe's strategy is to leverage its "just right" market share to force the industry chain to relocate processing within its borders without excessively stimulating prices, thereby enhancing the value of its resources. This model stands in stark contrast to the dramatic market reaction in the Congo caused by its monopolistic position.
