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2026-02-26 18:23:31
【Warm Weather Suppresses Demand, European Gas Prices hover between €30 and €32】 ⑴ European natural gas prices maintained a narrow trading range on Thursday, mainly due to warm weather suppressing heating demand. The benchmark Dutch TTF near-month contract fell slightly by €0.34 to close at €30.84 per megawatt-hour, continuing the consolidation trend of the past four trading days within the €30-€32 range. ⑵ Current market fundamentals are biased towards the downside. Total demand is expected to decline significantly in the coming day, while warm and humid air currents covering Northwest Europe will continue until after March 23, with temperatures remaining above the ten-year average. Data shows that natural gas demand at local gas distribution stations in Northwest Europe, which mainly reflects heating demand, is expected to decrease by 104 million kWh/day. ⑶ On the supply side, Norway's total exports declined due to maintenance, but the impact was mainly concentrated on the UK. At the same time, liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows remained strong, providing ample buffer for the market. This weak supply and demand situation is the core reason why prices have entered a sideways consolidation phase. ⑷ Market attention remains focused on the new round of US-Iran negotiations in Geneva. Iran has pledged flexibility in indirect negotiations, but Tehran faces the dual pressure of either reaching an agreement or facing military strikes. Any shift in the geopolitical landscape could disrupt the current calm in gas prices. In the carbon market, the European benchmark carbon contract price fell €2.68 to €69.90 per tonne.
