Trump secretly discusses successor: Vance or Marco? Iran conflict ignites partisan infighting.
2026-03-30 14:45:41
As the war with Iran enters its fifth week, the political risks for two of President Trump's closest aides—Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio—are rising simultaneously. Widely regarded as potential successors to Trump after his term ends, the evolving war situation is pushing them to the forefront of negotiations to end the conflict, as Republicans plan for the post-Trump era.
Trump's term limits prevent him from running for president in 2028, and he recently privately consulted with allies and advisors about his successor: " JD or Marco? " This discussion highlights that the Iran war has directly impacted Trump's succession planning .
While geopolitical conflicts typically benefit the safe-haven appeal of the US dollar, they also indirectly reveal another risk: uncertainty surrounding the transition of political power within the United States. On Monday (March 30th) during the Asian and European sessions, the US dollar index fluctuated narrowly around 100.10.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance's cautious stance on long-term U.S. military involvement reflects his skepticism about deep involvement in overseas conflicts. At a cabinet meeting last Thursday, Vance was relatively restrained, emphasizing how to deprive Iran of the option to acquire nuclear weapons, and concluding his remarks with a Holy Week and Easter greeting to U.S. troops stationed in the Gulf region, expressing his unwavering support.
This stance aligns with the anti-war sentiments of some of Trump's base, while also avoiding a public break with the president and preserving political space for Vance in the event of a prolonged conflict.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, aligned with Trump's hawkish stance, became one of the most vocal defenders of military action against Iran within the administration. At the same cabinet meeting, Rubio strongly defended Trump's decision to attack Iran, stating that "he will not allow this danger to exist."
As a key figure in Trump's role as national security advisor, Rubio's steady image during the crisis will significantly enhance his competitiveness within the Republican Party in 2028 should the war end quickly and with a favorable outcome .
Political analysts and Republican officials point out that the outcome of the war with Iran will directly impact the political prospects of Vance and Rubio in 2028. If the war ends quickly and the United States gains a clear advantage, Rubio's image as a crisis manager will be greatly enhanced; conversely, if the conflict drags on and triggers domestic discontent, Vance will have the opportunity to highlight his cautious stance and cater to the anti-war sentiment among Trump's base.
The war has now entered its fifth week, and the risk of escalation (including the Houthi participation and the US military's ground operations preparations) continues, adding uncertainty to the future of the two men.
Sources familiar with the matter revealed that Trump has recently discussed the "JD or Marco" issue privately on several occasions. A Republican close to the White House observed that Trump displayed more positive body language towards Rubio, while showing fewer similar signals towards Vance .
White House spokesman Steven Cheung denied the speculation, emphasizing that "no matter how the media speculates, it cannot shake the government's mission to fight for the American people." Another senior White House official said that Trump can tolerate ideological differences among his aides as long as they remain loyal, and Vance's cautious attitude actually helps Trump understand the positions of some voters.
Vance has stated that he will wait until after the November 2026 midterm elections to decide whether to run for president in 2028. Rubio, 54, has publicly stated that if Vance runs, he will not contest the presidency and would be willing to be Vance's running mate.
Trump himself had proposed a running mate pairing Vance and Rubio, believing the combination would be "hard to beat." Although Rubio had clashed fiercely with Trump during the 2016 primaries, the two had long since resolved their differences.
Previously, the dollar was supported primarily by safe-haven demand due to the Middle East conflict. However, the market is now beginning to price in the uncertainty surrounding the 2028 US presidential election. Vance and Rubio represent two drastically different foreign policy directions. If the conflict becomes protracted, internal disagreements over succession could weaken market confidence in the consistency of US policy, thus limiting the dollar's upside potential in the long term and potentially leading to profit-taking after a surge .
(US Dollar Index Daily Chart, Source: FX678)
The war with Iran not only tests the US Middle East strategy but also directly impacts Trump's succession planning for 2028. Vance's cautious stance aligns with the anti-war base, while Rubio's tough defense highlights the hawkish executive power.
Trump privately weighed the two candidates while observing the impact of the war's development on the Republican Party's future. Ultimately, the choice of successor depends on the war's outcome, the midterm election results, and Trump's personal inclinations. In the short term, both candidates must find a balance between loyalty and a differentiated positioning.
At 14:45 Beijing time, the US dollar index is currently at 100.06.
Trump's term limits prevent him from running for president in 2028, and he recently privately consulted with allies and advisors about his successor: " JD or Marco? " This discussion highlights that the Iran war has directly impacted Trump's succession planning .
While geopolitical conflicts typically benefit the safe-haven appeal of the US dollar, they also indirectly reveal another risk: uncertainty surrounding the transition of political power within the United States. On Monday (March 30th) during the Asian and European sessions, the US dollar index fluctuated narrowly around 100.10.
US Vice President Vance's cautious anti-war stance
U.S. Vice President JD Vance's cautious stance on long-term U.S. military involvement reflects his skepticism about deep involvement in overseas conflicts. At a cabinet meeting last Thursday, Vance was relatively restrained, emphasizing how to deprive Iran of the option to acquire nuclear weapons, and concluding his remarks with a Holy Week and Easter greeting to U.S. troops stationed in the Gulf region, expressing his unwavering support.
This stance aligns with the anti-war sentiments of some of Trump's base, while also avoiding a public break with the president and preserving political space for Vance in the event of a prolonged conflict.
US Secretary of State Rubio's hawkish approach
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, aligned with Trump's hawkish stance, became one of the most vocal defenders of military action against Iran within the administration. At the same cabinet meeting, Rubio strongly defended Trump's decision to attack Iran, stating that "he will not allow this danger to exist."
As a key figure in Trump's role as national security advisor, Rubio's steady image during the crisis will significantly enhance his competitiveness within the Republican Party in 2028 should the war end quickly and with a favorable outcome .
The impact of the Iran war on the political future of the two men
Political analysts and Republican officials point out that the outcome of the war with Iran will directly impact the political prospects of Vance and Rubio in 2028. If the war ends quickly and the United States gains a clear advantage, Rubio's image as a crisis manager will be greatly enhanced; conversely, if the conflict drags on and triggers domestic discontent, Vance will have the opportunity to highlight his cautious stance and cater to the anti-war sentiment among Trump's base.
The war has now entered its fifth week, and the risk of escalation (including the Houthi participation and the US military's ground operations preparations) continues, adding uncertainty to the future of the two men.
Trump's private weighing and inclination signals
Sources familiar with the matter revealed that Trump has recently discussed the "JD or Marco" issue privately on several occasions. A Republican close to the White House observed that Trump displayed more positive body language towards Rubio, while showing fewer similar signals towards Vance .
White House spokesman Steven Cheung denied the speculation, emphasizing that "no matter how the media speculates, it cannot shake the government's mission to fight for the American people." Another senior White House official said that Trump can tolerate ideological differences among his aides as long as they remain loyal, and Vance's cautious attitude actually helps Trump understand the positions of some voters.
Succession uncertainty after midterm elections
Vance has stated that he will wait until after the November 2026 midterm elections to decide whether to run for president in 2028. Rubio, 54, has publicly stated that if Vance runs, he will not contest the presidency and would be willing to be Vance's running mate.
Trump himself had proposed a running mate pairing Vance and Rubio, believing the combination would be "hard to beat." Although Rubio had clashed fiercely with Trump during the 2016 primaries, the two had long since resolved their differences.
How political infighting affects the US dollar
Previously, the dollar was supported primarily by safe-haven demand due to the Middle East conflict. However, the market is now beginning to price in the uncertainty surrounding the 2028 US presidential election. Vance and Rubio represent two drastically different foreign policy directions. If the conflict becomes protracted, internal disagreements over succession could weaken market confidence in the consistency of US policy, thus limiting the dollar's upside potential in the long term and potentially leading to profit-taking after a surge .
(US Dollar Index Daily Chart, Source: FX678)
Editor's Summary
The war with Iran not only tests the US Middle East strategy but also directly impacts Trump's succession planning for 2028. Vance's cautious stance aligns with the anti-war base, while Rubio's tough defense highlights the hawkish executive power.
Trump privately weighed the two candidates while observing the impact of the war's development on the Republican Party's future. Ultimately, the choice of successor depends on the war's outcome, the midterm election results, and Trump's personal inclinations. In the short term, both candidates must find a balance between loyalty and a differentiated positioning.
At 14:45 Beijing time, the US dollar index is currently at 100.06.
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