April 3rd Financial Breakfast: Interest rate hike expectations rise, gold prices fall below $4700, Trump vows to continue sanctions against Iran, oil prices surge over 13%.
2026-04-03 07:28:18
On Friday (April 3, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, gold and crude oil trading was suspended for the entire day due to Good Friday. However, gold prices fell on Thursday, ultimately closing below $4,700 per ounce, influenced by a stronger dollar and rising expectations of interest rate hikes. Oil prices surged more than 13% on Thursday, with US crude oil reaching $112 per barrel, marking the largest single-day absolute increase since 2020, influenced by US President Trump's vow to continue striking Iran and his failure to provide a timetable for ending hostilities or reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. stocks closed mixed on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.13% to 46,504.67, the S&P 500 up 0.11% to 6,582.69, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.18% to 21,879.18. The market opened lower due to turmoil in the Middle East and soaring oil prices, but investor sentiment stabilized later as diplomatic signals, such as Iran and Oman drafting a protocol for passage through the Strait of Hormuz and the UK stating that multiple countries were discussing solutions, eased supply concerns.
All three major stock indexes recorded their biggest weekly gains in four months and their first weekly gains in six weeks: the S&P 500 rose 3.36%, the Nasdaq rose 4.44%, and the Dow Jones rose 2.96%.
In terms of sectors, utilities and real estate stocks performed relatively well, while the consumer discretionary sector led the decline as Tesla's deliveries hit their weakest quarter in a year and its stock price fell 5.4%.
In addition, Blue Owl set a redemption cap on its retail funds, triggering tensions in the private lending market. The market will now focus on SpaceX's secret IPO filing and Friday's non-farm payroll data. Ahead of Good Friday, the VIX fear index fell to 23.87.
Gold prices fell on Thursday, pressured by a stronger dollar and rising expectations of interest rate hikes. Spot gold dropped 2.2% to $4,651.35 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures settled down 2.8% at $4,679.70. U.S. President Trump's statement that he would continue attacks on Iran, vowing to bomb the country back to the "Stone Age," boosted oil prices, exacerbated inflation concerns, and reduced the likelihood of interest rate cuts, putting pressure on gold, which does not generate interest.
Since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict on February 28, spot gold has fallen by a cumulative 12%. Market sentiment has also been hit by the sharp decline in Turkey's central bank's gold reserves, which fell by more than 118 tons in two weeks (down 69.1 tons to 702.5 tons last week). On the demand side, boosted by the weakening gold prices, Indian gold trading prices saw their first premium in two months.
In other precious metals, spot silver fell 3.7% to $72.38, platinum rose 0.9% to $1,981.95, and palladium rose 1.9% to $1,497.00.
International oil prices jumped sharply on Thursday, with US crude oil rising more than 13% to settle at $112.06 a barrel, marking its largest single-day gain since 2020; Brent crude futures rose 7.78% to settle at $109.03 a barrel. This surge was driven by US President Trump's vow to continue strikes against Iran and his failure to provide a timetable for ending hostilities or reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump's statement that he would launch an extremely powerful strike within the next two to three weeks, vowing to bomb Iran back to the "Stone Age," exacerbated market concerns about prolonged disruptions to oil supplies. Although Iran is drafting a protocol with Oman to monitor ship passage through the Strait of Hormuz, traders' focus has shifted to whether Iran's oil infrastructure is at risk.
Recently, U.S. crude oil contracts saw their largest premium over Brent contracts in nearly a year, with the premium of near-month contracts over far-month contracts also reaching a record high. Dallas Fed President Logan stated that if the war is resolved quickly, the economic impact may be relatively mild, but the outlook remains uncertain.
Citigroup predicts that the average price of Brent crude oil in the second half of the year will be $95 per barrel in the baseline scenario, and could reach $130 in the optimistic scenario; JPMorgan Chase says that oil prices may rise to $120-$130 in the short term, and could break through $150 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until mid-May.
The dollar index rebounded sharply on Thursday after two consecutive days of decline, rising 0.46% to 100.02. Fueled by renewed concerns about the Middle East conflict, President Trump vowed to launch a more forceful attack on Iran within the next two to three weeks without providing a timetable for reopening the Strait of Hormuz or ending the war. The Iranian military subsequently warned of a more intense attack, dashing market expectations for a swift end to the conflict and reigniting demand for safe-haven assets.
The dollar rose 0.6% against the Swiss franc to 0.799 and 0.5% against the yen to 159.57, nearing the 160 level that could trigger intervention by Japanese authorities. The euro fell 0.45% to $1.1536 and the pound fell 0.63% to $1.3222, erasing recent gains.
The market is also focused on Friday's US non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to show 60,000 new jobs added in March.
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 99.5%, while the probability of a rate hike this year has risen to 14.7%.
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 0.5%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 99.5%. The probability of the Fed cutting rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by June is 6.0%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 93.5%, and the probability of raising rates by a cumulative 25 basis points is 0.5%. The probability of the Fed cutting rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by December is 35.1% (25.1% the previous day), the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 50.2% (73% the previous day), and the probability of raising rates by a cumulative 25 basis points is 14.7% (1.9% the previous day).
A Russian presidential aide said the Strait of Hormuz is open to Russia.
Russian Presidential Aide Ushakov stated in an interview with Russian media that the Strait of Hormuz is open to Russia. Ushakov noted the serious situation in the Middle East. He also stated that the US has not made any requests to Russia regarding mediation in the Middle East. (CCTV News)
The US bombing of the bridge in Iran may be followed by further attacks on infrastructure.
According to Axios, the US military launched its first attack on major civilian infrastructure in Iran on Thursday, just hours after Trump threatened to bomb Iran "back to the Stone Age." The attack on the Karaj B-1 bridge near Tehran indicates that the US military's target range is expanding, and this may only be the beginning of attacks on energy, water, and transportation infrastructure. A US Department of Defense official stated that more bridges may be targeted. The bridge was attacked because it was used by Iranian armed forces to secretly transport missiles and missile components from Tehran to launch sites in western Iran. Missile components were transported across the bridge in large crates and containers and assembled at the launch sites. According to the official, the bridge was also used to provide logistical support to Iranian military forces in Tehran.
Iran attacks Oracle and Amazon data centers
On the evening of April 2nd local time, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy Command issued a statement announcing strikes against Oracle's data center in Dubai, UAE, and Amazon's data center in Bahrain. (CCTV International News)
Houthi claim they will again join forces with Iran and Hezbollah to attack Israel.
Yemeni Houthi spokesman Yahya Sarreya issued a video statement on the evening of April 2, local time, stating that the Houthis, along with Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, had launched another joint military operation, firing a batch of ballistic missiles at targets in the Tel Aviv region of central Israel, striking key Israeli facilities. (CCTV International News)
Guterres: "We are on the brink of a broader war."
UN Secretary-General António Guterres addressed the media on March 2, reiterating his call for the United States and Israel to cease their war against Iran, and urging Iran to stop attacking its neighbors. Guterres stated that the war is causing immense suffering to humanity and has triggered devastating economic consequences. The escalation of the Middle East crisis has lasted for over a month, with the scale of destruction continuously expanding, indiscriminate attacks increasing, and attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure showing no signs of abating. "We are on the brink of a broader war," he said. (Xinhua)
Argentina announces expulsion of Iranian chargé d'affaires
The Argentine Foreign Ministry announced in a statement on April 2 that Mohsen Soltani Tehrani, the Iranian chargé d'affaires in Argentina, was persona non grata and demanded his departure within 48 hours. The Argentine Foreign Ministry stated that this move was a response to Iran's statement on April 1. The Argentine government designated Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a "terrorist organization" on March 31. The Iranian Foreign Ministry condemned the Argentine government's decision on April 1, calling it "illegal and baseless" and stating that it would damage bilateral relations. (Xinhua)
Iran's iconic bridge attacked
On April 2, the Beyq Highway Bridge in Karaj, Iran, known as the highest bridge in the Middle East and a landmark project, was damaged in an attack by the United States and Israel. The bridge, a benchmark project for Iranian engineering and considered one of the world's most complex engineering achievements, is a core road infrastructure project of the Tehran-Karaj transportation corridor and was originally scheduled to officially open soon. The attack damaged the main structure of the bridge, and the affected section of the road has been completely closed. The local government issued an emergency warning, urging residents to avoid the area. The attack also caused power outages in parts of Karaj. (CCTV International News)
The IMF released its 2026 US economic assessment, projecting growth to rise to 2.4%, but warning that energy price uncertainty could put downward pressure on inflation.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its Article IV consultation report on the United States in 2026 on April 2. The report indicates that with the gradual fading of tariff effects and lower global oil prices, core PCE inflation in the United States is expected to return to the policy target of 2% in the first half of 2027. The IMF forecasts that US GDP growth will accelerate slightly to 2.4% in 2026. However, the IMF also points out that public debt as a percentage of GDP has risen to 123.9%, and the current account deficit remains substantial. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding energy prices could put renewed downward pressure on inflation.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Hints at Wall Street Manipulating Washington's War Policy, Launches Vote to Release List <br /> Iranian Parliament Speaker Qassem Ghalibaf posted on social media, claiming to have tracked fund flows and accusing a small group of bankers and hedge fund managers of secretly meeting last week to decide to hijack Washington's war policy toward Iran, subsequently launching an operation. Ghalibaf launched a poll asking whether names should be named, with options including "yes," "no," and "Ackman: Did you lose the invitation?" (Ackman is a wealthy Jewish businessman and hedge fund manager in the United States). In nearly 16,000 votes, 70% of respondents voted "yes." This is the first time Iran has directly accused Wall Street financial capital of manipulating US war policy toward Iran. Ghalibaf hinted at releasing a list, but has not yet disclosed specific evidence.
my country's new energy storage capacity will exceed 370 million kilowatts by 2030.
The 15th Five-Year Plan outlines the need to solidly advance innovation in key technologies such as new energy storage, vigorously develop new energy storage, and position it as a core support for the new energy system, formally incorporating it into the national strategic emerging pillar industries. The recently released "Energy Storage Industry Research White Paper 2026" shows that by 2030, my country's cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage will exceed 370 million kilowatts, more than 1.5 times that of the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan period. (CCTV News)
Key Focus Today
stock market
U.S. stocks closed mixed on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.13% to 46,504.67, the S&P 500 up 0.11% to 6,582.69, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.18% to 21,879.18. The market opened lower due to turmoil in the Middle East and soaring oil prices, but investor sentiment stabilized later as diplomatic signals, such as Iran and Oman drafting a protocol for passage through the Strait of Hormuz and the UK stating that multiple countries were discussing solutions, eased supply concerns.
All three major stock indexes recorded their biggest weekly gains in four months and their first weekly gains in six weeks: the S&P 500 rose 3.36%, the Nasdaq rose 4.44%, and the Dow Jones rose 2.96%.
In terms of sectors, utilities and real estate stocks performed relatively well, while the consumer discretionary sector led the decline as Tesla's deliveries hit their weakest quarter in a year and its stock price fell 5.4%.
In addition, Blue Owl set a redemption cap on its retail funds, triggering tensions in the private lending market. The market will now focus on SpaceX's secret IPO filing and Friday's non-farm payroll data. Ahead of Good Friday, the VIX fear index fell to 23.87.
Gold Market
Gold prices fell on Thursday, pressured by a stronger dollar and rising expectations of interest rate hikes. Spot gold dropped 2.2% to $4,651.35 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures settled down 2.8% at $4,679.70. U.S. President Trump's statement that he would continue attacks on Iran, vowing to bomb the country back to the "Stone Age," boosted oil prices, exacerbated inflation concerns, and reduced the likelihood of interest rate cuts, putting pressure on gold, which does not generate interest.
Since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict on February 28, spot gold has fallen by a cumulative 12%. Market sentiment has also been hit by the sharp decline in Turkey's central bank's gold reserves, which fell by more than 118 tons in two weeks (down 69.1 tons to 702.5 tons last week). On the demand side, boosted by the weakening gold prices, Indian gold trading prices saw their first premium in two months.
In other precious metals, spot silver fell 3.7% to $72.38, platinum rose 0.9% to $1,981.95, and palladium rose 1.9% to $1,497.00.
oil market
International oil prices jumped sharply on Thursday, with US crude oil rising more than 13% to settle at $112.06 a barrel, marking its largest single-day gain since 2020; Brent crude futures rose 7.78% to settle at $109.03 a barrel. This surge was driven by US President Trump's vow to continue strikes against Iran and his failure to provide a timetable for ending hostilities or reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump's statement that he would launch an extremely powerful strike within the next two to three weeks, vowing to bomb Iran back to the "Stone Age," exacerbated market concerns about prolonged disruptions to oil supplies. Although Iran is drafting a protocol with Oman to monitor ship passage through the Strait of Hormuz, traders' focus has shifted to whether Iran's oil infrastructure is at risk.
Recently, U.S. crude oil contracts saw their largest premium over Brent contracts in nearly a year, with the premium of near-month contracts over far-month contracts also reaching a record high. Dallas Fed President Logan stated that if the war is resolved quickly, the economic impact may be relatively mild, but the outlook remains uncertain.
Citigroup predicts that the average price of Brent crude oil in the second half of the year will be $95 per barrel in the baseline scenario, and could reach $130 in the optimistic scenario; JPMorgan Chase says that oil prices may rise to $120-$130 in the short term, and could break through $150 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until mid-May.
Foreign exchange market
The dollar index rebounded sharply on Thursday after two consecutive days of decline, rising 0.46% to 100.02. Fueled by renewed concerns about the Middle East conflict, President Trump vowed to launch a more forceful attack on Iran within the next two to three weeks without providing a timetable for reopening the Strait of Hormuz or ending the war. The Iranian military subsequently warned of a more intense attack, dashing market expectations for a swift end to the conflict and reigniting demand for safe-haven assets.
The dollar rose 0.6% against the Swiss franc to 0.799 and 0.5% against the yen to 159.57, nearing the 160 level that could trigger intervention by Japanese authorities. The euro fell 0.45% to $1.1536 and the pound fell 0.63% to $1.3222, erasing recent gains.
The market is also focused on Friday's US non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to show 60,000 new jobs added in March.
International News
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 99.5%, while the probability of a rate hike this year has risen to 14.7%.
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 0.5%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 99.5%. The probability of the Fed cutting rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by June is 6.0%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 93.5%, and the probability of raising rates by a cumulative 25 basis points is 0.5%. The probability of the Fed cutting rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by December is 35.1% (25.1% the previous day), the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 50.2% (73% the previous day), and the probability of raising rates by a cumulative 25 basis points is 14.7% (1.9% the previous day).
A Russian presidential aide said the Strait of Hormuz is open to Russia.
Russian Presidential Aide Ushakov stated in an interview with Russian media that the Strait of Hormuz is open to Russia. Ushakov noted the serious situation in the Middle East. He also stated that the US has not made any requests to Russia regarding mediation in the Middle East. (CCTV News)
The US bombing of the bridge in Iran may be followed by further attacks on infrastructure.
According to Axios, the US military launched its first attack on major civilian infrastructure in Iran on Thursday, just hours after Trump threatened to bomb Iran "back to the Stone Age." The attack on the Karaj B-1 bridge near Tehran indicates that the US military's target range is expanding, and this may only be the beginning of attacks on energy, water, and transportation infrastructure. A US Department of Defense official stated that more bridges may be targeted. The bridge was attacked because it was used by Iranian armed forces to secretly transport missiles and missile components from Tehran to launch sites in western Iran. Missile components were transported across the bridge in large crates and containers and assembled at the launch sites. According to the official, the bridge was also used to provide logistical support to Iranian military forces in Tehran.
Iran attacks Oracle and Amazon data centers
On the evening of April 2nd local time, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy Command issued a statement announcing strikes against Oracle's data center in Dubai, UAE, and Amazon's data center in Bahrain. (CCTV International News)
Houthi claim they will again join forces with Iran and Hezbollah to attack Israel.
Yemeni Houthi spokesman Yahya Sarreya issued a video statement on the evening of April 2, local time, stating that the Houthis, along with Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, had launched another joint military operation, firing a batch of ballistic missiles at targets in the Tel Aviv region of central Israel, striking key Israeli facilities. (CCTV International News)
Guterres: "We are on the brink of a broader war."
UN Secretary-General António Guterres addressed the media on March 2, reiterating his call for the United States and Israel to cease their war against Iran, and urging Iran to stop attacking its neighbors. Guterres stated that the war is causing immense suffering to humanity and has triggered devastating economic consequences. The escalation of the Middle East crisis has lasted for over a month, with the scale of destruction continuously expanding, indiscriminate attacks increasing, and attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure showing no signs of abating. "We are on the brink of a broader war," he said. (Xinhua)
Argentina announces expulsion of Iranian chargé d'affaires
The Argentine Foreign Ministry announced in a statement on April 2 that Mohsen Soltani Tehrani, the Iranian chargé d'affaires in Argentina, was persona non grata and demanded his departure within 48 hours. The Argentine Foreign Ministry stated that this move was a response to Iran's statement on April 1. The Argentine government designated Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a "terrorist organization" on March 31. The Iranian Foreign Ministry condemned the Argentine government's decision on April 1, calling it "illegal and baseless" and stating that it would damage bilateral relations. (Xinhua)
Iran's iconic bridge attacked
On April 2, the Beyq Highway Bridge in Karaj, Iran, known as the highest bridge in the Middle East and a landmark project, was damaged in an attack by the United States and Israel. The bridge, a benchmark project for Iranian engineering and considered one of the world's most complex engineering achievements, is a core road infrastructure project of the Tehran-Karaj transportation corridor and was originally scheduled to officially open soon. The attack damaged the main structure of the bridge, and the affected section of the road has been completely closed. The local government issued an emergency warning, urging residents to avoid the area. The attack also caused power outages in parts of Karaj. (CCTV International News)
The IMF released its 2026 US economic assessment, projecting growth to rise to 2.4%, but warning that energy price uncertainty could put downward pressure on inflation.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its Article IV consultation report on the United States in 2026 on April 2. The report indicates that with the gradual fading of tariff effects and lower global oil prices, core PCE inflation in the United States is expected to return to the policy target of 2% in the first half of 2027. The IMF forecasts that US GDP growth will accelerate slightly to 2.4% in 2026. However, the IMF also points out that public debt as a percentage of GDP has risen to 123.9%, and the current account deficit remains substantial. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding energy prices could put renewed downward pressure on inflation.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Hints at Wall Street Manipulating Washington's War Policy, Launches Vote to Release List <br /> Iranian Parliament Speaker Qassem Ghalibaf posted on social media, claiming to have tracked fund flows and accusing a small group of bankers and hedge fund managers of secretly meeting last week to decide to hijack Washington's war policy toward Iran, subsequently launching an operation. Ghalibaf launched a poll asking whether names should be named, with options including "yes," "no," and "Ackman: Did you lose the invitation?" (Ackman is a wealthy Jewish businessman and hedge fund manager in the United States). In nearly 16,000 votes, 70% of respondents voted "yes." This is the first time Iran has directly accused Wall Street financial capital of manipulating US war policy toward Iran. Ghalibaf hinted at releasing a list, but has not yet disclosed specific evidence.
Domestic News
my country's new energy storage capacity will exceed 370 million kilowatts by 2030.
The 15th Five-Year Plan outlines the need to solidly advance innovation in key technologies such as new energy storage, vigorously develop new energy storage, and position it as a core support for the new energy system, formally incorporating it into the national strategic emerging pillar industries. The recently released "Energy Storage Industry Research White Paper 2026" shows that by 2030, my country's cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage will exceed 370 million kilowatts, more than 1.5 times that of the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan period. (CCTV News)
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