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[Inflation Exceeding 2% Unlikely to Trigger Rate Hike: ECB Officials Hint at Hold in April, Awaiting More Data] 1. Several European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers downplayed the possibility of a rate hike as early as this month, stating that more data is needed for judgment and the specific timing of action is not the most important issue. Inflation exceeded the 2% target last month due to rising energy costs, and the central bank is discussing whether to tighten policy to prevent the energy shock from spreading. 2. ECB Chief Economist Lane stated that necessary action will be taken, and the final decision at which meeting will be made is just a matter of detail. Bank of France Governor Villeroy de Gallo was more direct, stating that it is too early to bet on an April rate hike, and sufficient data is needed to assess the negative impact on core inflation and demand. 3. Financial markets have lowered their expectations for an April rate hike, now only one in five; the market has fully priced in a July rate hike and anticipates a second rate hike before the end of the year. Latvian Central Bank Governor Kassacs believes market expectations are reasonable, stating that a 25 basis point rate hike is merely a signal. 4. However, several policymakers acknowledged that there is currently insufficient evidence to suggest that energy inflation is having a second-round effect—a key condition for tightening policy. Estonian Central Bank Governor Miller stated that broader inflationary pressures will take time to materialize, and it may be difficult to determine whether there is cause for concern by the end of April. 5. While all policymakers have not ruled out a rate hike in April, many indicated that a significant deterioration in the economic outlook is necessary. Malta Central Bank Governor Demarco stated that inflation expectations have been firmly anchored so far, and patience is needed to let the data speak for itself before making hasty decisions.