The US dollar index is fluctuating at low levels, awaiting a directional move.
2026-04-17 11:20:52
During Friday's Asian trading session, the US dollar index hovered around 98.25, showing overall stability. The market is currently in a typical phase of "expectation digestion + awaiting catalysts," with mixed bullish and bearish factors leaving the dollar's direction temporarily unclear.
From a geopolitical perspective, Israel and Lebanon have reached a 10-day ceasefire agreement, but the situation has not fully stabilized. The Lebanese military stated that multiple violations have been recorded since the ceasefire took effect, including intermittent shelling of several areas in the south. This situation indicates uncertainty regarding the ceasefire's implementation, strengthening market risk aversion and thus supporting the US dollar.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump stated that the US and Iran might hold a new round of talks this weekend and expressed optimism about reaching a long-term agreement. The two sides have currently implemented a two-week temporary arrangement, but it is about to expire, and the market is closely watching subsequent developments.
Market analysts believe the current stabilization of the US dollar is primarily due to the fact that previous positive expectations have already been priced in. In other words, unless a new major catalyst emerges, the dollar is unlikely to experience a one-sided trend in the short term. The dollar index has entered a consolidation range around 98.25 , reflecting a strong wait-and-see attitude in the market.
From a monetary policy perspective, the Federal Reserve's interest rate path also influences the dollar's performance. Market surveys show that federal funds rate futures indicate the market widely expects the Fed to maintain interest rates unchanged this year. This expectation, to some extent, limits the dollar's further upside potential.
Meanwhile, potential inflationary pressures from geopolitical conflicts are also a key market concern. If energy prices continue to rise due to supply concerns, it could push up inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates or even extend its tightening cycle. This expectation indirectly supports the US dollar.
From a market structure perspective, the US dollar is currently in a state of equilibrium, supported by safe-haven demand and suppressed by policy. On the one hand, geopolitical risks are driving capital inflows into the dollar; on the other hand, stable interest rate expectations are preventing the dollar from having further upward momentum. This structural game has led to a shift in the dollar's trend from a one-sided rise to a period of consolidation .
From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, the US dollar index has entered a consolidation phase after its previous rebound, remaining within a trading range overall. The price encountered resistance and fell back near 98.50, indicating strong selling pressure above. In terms of momentum indicators, the RSI remains in neutral territory, and the MACD is running near the zero line, suggesting limited trend momentum. Key resistance levels to watch are 98.80 and 99.20; a break above these levels could lead to a continuation of the rebound. Support levels are located in the 97.80 and 97.20 area; a break below these levels could open up further downside potential.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, the US dollar index is consolidating sideways, with prices fluctuating around short-term moving averages. The Bollinger Bands are gradually narrowing, suggesting decreasing volatility. The RSI is oscillating around 50, and the MACD momentum is weakening, indicating a lack of clear market direction. The short-term range is roughly between 97.80 and 98.80 ; a breakout from this range will be key to guiding the next phase of the market movement.
Editor's Summary : The US dollar index is currently in a phase of multiple factors at play: uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation provides safe-haven support, while expectations surrounding US-Iran negotiations and a stable interest rate path limit upside potential. In the short term, the market has entered a phase of "awaiting new catalysts," and the dollar is likely to maintain a range-bound trading pattern. Future direction depends on whether geopolitical tensions escalate and whether expectations for Federal Reserve policy change; investors should pay close attention to relevant marginal changes.
From a geopolitical perspective, Israel and Lebanon have reached a 10-day ceasefire agreement, but the situation has not fully stabilized. The Lebanese military stated that multiple violations have been recorded since the ceasefire took effect, including intermittent shelling of several areas in the south. This situation indicates uncertainty regarding the ceasefire's implementation, strengthening market risk aversion and thus supporting the US dollar.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump stated that the US and Iran might hold a new round of talks this weekend and expressed optimism about reaching a long-term agreement. The two sides have currently implemented a two-week temporary arrangement, but it is about to expire, and the market is closely watching subsequent developments.
Market analysts believe the current stabilization of the US dollar is primarily due to the fact that previous positive expectations have already been priced in. In other words, unless a new major catalyst emerges, the dollar is unlikely to experience a one-sided trend in the short term. The dollar index has entered a consolidation range around 98.25 , reflecting a strong wait-and-see attitude in the market.
From a monetary policy perspective, the Federal Reserve's interest rate path also influences the dollar's performance. Market surveys show that federal funds rate futures indicate the market widely expects the Fed to maintain interest rates unchanged this year. This expectation, to some extent, limits the dollar's further upside potential.
Meanwhile, potential inflationary pressures from geopolitical conflicts are also a key market concern. If energy prices continue to rise due to supply concerns, it could push up inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates or even extend its tightening cycle. This expectation indirectly supports the US dollar.
From a market structure perspective, the US dollar is currently in a state of equilibrium, supported by safe-haven demand and suppressed by policy. On the one hand, geopolitical risks are driving capital inflows into the dollar; on the other hand, stable interest rate expectations are preventing the dollar from having further upward momentum. This structural game has led to a shift in the dollar's trend from a one-sided rise to a period of consolidation .
From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, the US dollar index has entered a consolidation phase after its previous rebound, remaining within a trading range overall. The price encountered resistance and fell back near 98.50, indicating strong selling pressure above. In terms of momentum indicators, the RSI remains in neutral territory, and the MACD is running near the zero line, suggesting limited trend momentum. Key resistance levels to watch are 98.80 and 99.20; a break above these levels could lead to a continuation of the rebound. Support levels are located in the 97.80 and 97.20 area; a break below these levels could open up further downside potential.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, the US dollar index is consolidating sideways, with prices fluctuating around short-term moving averages. The Bollinger Bands are gradually narrowing, suggesting decreasing volatility. The RSI is oscillating around 50, and the MACD momentum is weakening, indicating a lack of clear market direction. The short-term range is roughly between 97.80 and 98.80 ; a breakout from this range will be key to guiding the next phase of the market movement.
Editor's Summary : The US dollar index is currently in a phase of multiple factors at play: uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation provides safe-haven support, while expectations surrounding US-Iran negotiations and a stable interest rate path limit upside potential. In the short term, the market has entered a phase of "awaiting new catalysts," and the dollar is likely to maintain a range-bound trading pattern. Future direction depends on whether geopolitical tensions escalate and whether expectations for Federal Reserve policy change; investors should pay close attention to relevant marginal changes.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
