Non-Farm Payroll Week is Coming: A Global Market Outlook Amidst the Power of Labor Market Data
2026-05-01 20:07:53
Next week (May 2-7), global markets will see a whirlwind of key events and major data releases. From the release of economic data from both China and the US to a flurry of statements from Federal Reserve officials, every development could potentially shake market sentiment.
In particular, the second US non-farm payroll data released since the war will directly affect expectations of the Federal Reserve's policy path. Investors need to focus on key variables and make preparations in advance to cope with volatility.
Berkshire Hathaway's 2026 Annual Shareholders Meeting will be held on Saturday (May 2). This is the first shareholders meeting chaired independently by Abel, marking the official start of the "post-Buffett era." The market will focus on core issues such as the $373 billion cash allocation plan and subsidiary management strategies.
On the same day, the eight OPEC+ oil-producing countries held a meeting on oil production policy in June. With the loss of crude oil production in the Persian Gulf exceeding expectations, whether or not the production cuts will continue will directly affect the trend of oil prices. Institutions have raised their fourth-quarter Brent crude oil price forecasts to $90 per barrel, meaning that forward contracts have started to trade at a significant premium.
On Monday (May 3), Germany, France, and the Eurozone will release the final readings of the April SPGI Manufacturing PMI. Be wary of the risk of data revisions. European stock markets recorded their best monthly gain in over a year in April, and the economic data will verify the sustainability of the rally.
On the same day, the US released the growth rates of durable goods orders and factory orders for March. As an important reference for the health of the US manufacturing industry, the data will reflect corporate investment intentions and provide forward-looking clues for subsequent non-farm payroll data.
On Tuesday (May 4), the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce the cash rate. The market expects it to raise the rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%. The main driving factor is the slowdown in core inflation from its high level. The subsequent press conference will release further policy signals.
A flurry of US data will be released this evening, including March foreign trade data, April ISM non-manufacturing PMI, March JOLTs job openings and new home sales data. Among them, JOLTs job openings are more sensitive to the job market than the unemployment rate and will reveal the tightness of the US labor market in advance.
On Wednesday (May 5), the US API and EIA crude oil inventory data were released one after another. After the OPEC+ policy was implemented, the inventory changes will reflect the supply and demand gap in the market.
China's release of the April SPGI services PMI, a key indicator of domestic economic recovery, will influence sentiment towards RMB assets.
On the same day, the US April ADP employment change (non-farm payrolls) was released. St. Louis Fed President Musaleem delivered a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy. The ADP data has a long-term correlation with non-farm payrolls of over 70% and is a core forward-looking guide for the employment market.
On Thursday (May 6), the U.S. released Challenger job cuts data for April, as well as the number of initial and continuing jobless claims for this week.
Combining previous JOLTs job openings and ADP nonfarm payroll data, the "employment data triangle" formed by these three will outline the US labor market in April in advance, helping investors to anticipate market reactions before the nonfarm payroll data is released and reducing blind trading.
On Friday (May 7), the U.S. Department of Labor released non-farm payroll data and the unemployment rate for April. As the second month of data since the war, the performance of the second consecutive month will provide evidence of whether the labor market continues to be strong. The market consensus expects 60,000 new jobs and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.3%.
On the same day, the United States will also release the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May and inflation expectations. These two sets of data will comprehensively reflect the fundamentals of the US economy.
Later this evening, Hamak, a 2026 FOMC voting member and president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, and Williams, a permanent FOMC voting member and president of the New York Federal Reserve, will deliver speeches, and their policy statements will further clarify expectations for the Fed's interest rate path.
In addition to core economic data, investors should also be wary of three potential risks: First, the situation between the US and Iran remains uncertain, and the subsequent developments of the Trump administration's military action against Iran may trigger geopolitical risk aversion, which would benefit safe-haven assets such as gold.
Second, if speeches by central bank officials such as the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia release more hawkish signals than expected, it may reinforce expectations that high interest rates will be maintained for a longer period, suppressing the performance of growth stocks; third, if the Berkshire Hathaway shareholders' meeting discloses unexpected strategic adjustments, or if OPEC+ oil production policies are more relaxed than expected, it may trigger sharp fluctuations in related sectors.
Fourth, if the US non-farm payroll data shows an extreme value (more than 180,000 new jobs or less than 50,000), gold may face significant volatility; fifth, if international trade frictions escalate due to events such as adjustments to US and European troop deployments, it will put pressure on global risk assets.
In particular, the second US non-farm payroll data released since the war will directly affect expectations of the Federal Reserve's policy path. Investors need to focus on key variables and make preparations in advance to cope with volatility.
The summit of industry leaders kicks off, setting the tone for energy policy.
Berkshire Hathaway's 2026 Annual Shareholders Meeting will be held on Saturday (May 2). This is the first shareholders meeting chaired independently by Abel, marking the official start of the "post-Buffett era." The market will focus on core issues such as the $373 billion cash allocation plan and subsidiary management strategies.
On the same day, the eight OPEC+ oil-producing countries held a meeting on oil production policy in June. With the loss of crude oil production in the Persian Gulf exceeding expectations, whether or not the production cuts will continue will directly affect the trend of oil prices. Institutions have raised their fourth-quarter Brent crude oil price forecasts to $90 per barrel, meaning that forward contracts have started to trade at a significant premium.
European and American PMI data concludes; US order data to follow.
On Monday (May 3), Germany, France, and the Eurozone will release the final readings of the April SPGI Manufacturing PMI. Be wary of the risk of data revisions. European stock markets recorded their best monthly gain in over a year in April, and the economic data will verify the sustainability of the rally.
On the same day, the US released the growth rates of durable goods orders and factory orders for March. As an important reference for the health of the US manufacturing industry, the data will reflect corporate investment intentions and provide forward-looking clues for subsequent non-farm payroll data.
Australia's interest rate hike has been implemented, while the US employment outlook is being released ahead of time.
On Tuesday (May 4), the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce the cash rate. The market expects it to raise the rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%. The main driving factor is the slowdown in core inflation from its high level. The subsequent press conference will release further policy signals.
A flurry of US data will be released this evening, including March foreign trade data, April ISM non-manufacturing PMI, March JOLTs job openings and new home sales data. Among them, JOLTs job openings are more sensitive to the job market than the unemployment rate and will reveal the tightness of the US labor market in advance.
Crude oil inventory data revealed, intertwined with US and Chinese policy pronouncements.
On Wednesday (May 5), the US API and EIA crude oil inventory data were released one after another. After the OPEC+ policy was implemented, the inventory changes will reflect the supply and demand gap in the market.
China's release of the April SPGI services PMI, a key indicator of domestic economic recovery, will influence sentiment towards RMB assets.
On the same day, the US April ADP employment change (non-farm payrolls) was released. St. Louis Fed President Musaleem delivered a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy. The ADP data has a long-term correlation with non-farm payrolls of over 70% and is a core forward-looking guide for the employment market.
Labor market warms up, layoffs and unemployment data linked
On Thursday (May 6), the U.S. released Challenger job cuts data for April, as well as the number of initial and continuing jobless claims for this week.
Combining previous JOLTs job openings and ADP nonfarm payroll data, the "employment data triangle" formed by these three will outline the US labor market in April in advance, helping investors to anticipate market reactions before the nonfarm payroll data is released and reducing blind trading.
Non-farm payrolls data is the final release of the month, with Federal Reserve officials releasing a flurry of signals.
On Friday (May 7), the U.S. Department of Labor released non-farm payroll data and the unemployment rate for April. As the second month of data since the war, the performance of the second consecutive month will provide evidence of whether the labor market continues to be strong. The market consensus expects 60,000 new jobs and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.3%.
On the same day, the United States will also release the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May and inflation expectations. These two sets of data will comprehensively reflect the fundamentals of the US economy.
Later this evening, Hamak, a 2026 FOMC voting member and president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, and Williams, a permanent FOMC voting member and president of the New York Federal Reserve, will deliver speeches, and their policy statements will further clarify expectations for the Fed's interest rate path.
Risk warning: Key variables require close attention.
In addition to core economic data, investors should also be wary of three potential risks: First, the situation between the US and Iran remains uncertain, and the subsequent developments of the Trump administration's military action against Iran may trigger geopolitical risk aversion, which would benefit safe-haven assets such as gold.
Second, if speeches by central bank officials such as the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia release more hawkish signals than expected, it may reinforce expectations that high interest rates will be maintained for a longer period, suppressing the performance of growth stocks; third, if the Berkshire Hathaway shareholders' meeting discloses unexpected strategic adjustments, or if OPEC+ oil production policies are more relaxed than expected, it may trigger sharp fluctuations in related sectors.
Fourth, if the US non-farm payroll data shows an extreme value (more than 180,000 new jobs or less than 50,000), gold may face significant volatility; fifth, if international trade frictions escalate due to events such as adjustments to US and European troop deployments, it will put pressure on global risk assets.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
