According to APP, international gold prices continued to rise on Friday, driven by inflationary pressures and easing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, with the cumulative gains for the week expected to turn positive. Despite renewed limited clashes in the Middle East, investors remain highly optimistic about the prospect of a peace agreement between the US and Iran, providing significant support for the gold market.

Currently, spot gold prices are hovering around $4,720 per ounce, a significant rebound from the lows at the beginning of the week, with a cumulative increase of over 2% this week. This trend is mainly due to the weakening of the US dollar index and the decline in energy prices, the latter easing global inflation concerns and thus reducing expectations of further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.

Kyle Rodda, a senior financial markets analyst, noted in a recent commentary: "The Trump administration's statement this morning indicates that the ceasefire is still in effect, and the market remains optimistic that an agreement can be reached between the US and Iran, which is currently supporting gold prices. Now we can only wait for further news to see if the two sides are close to reaching an agreement. In the coming days until the close of trading this week, gold prices may experience some volatility." This view is highly consistent with current market sentiment.

President Trump has recently stated publicly on multiple occasions that negotiations are progressing "very well" and emphasized that "a deal could be reached soon." Despite renewed clashes, Iran claims the situation has largely returned to normal, while the United States has made it clear that it does not want further escalation. This "fighting while negotiating" stance has not disrupted market expectations for a framework agreement in the short term; instead, it has prompted some safe-haven funds to flow into safe-haven assets such as gold, while the decline in oil prices has also benefited overall risk sentiment.

The core of this gold price rebound lies in the dynamic balance of geopolitical risk premiums. On the one hand, tensions related to the Strait of Hormuz previously pushed up oil prices and raised concerns about inflation; on the other hand, the prospect of a potential peace agreement is gradually easing this pressure. Investors are currently adopting a strategy of "pricing optimism first, then verifying the details," which has allowed gold to maintain its resilience at high levels.

The following is a comparison of key influencing factors in the near future:

Compared to similar historical events, the gold price reaction this time has been relatively mild, mainly because the scale of the conflict is manageable and the Trump administration's active promotion of a diplomatic solution has reduced long-term uncertainty. If substantial progress is made in the agreement in the coming weeks, gold's safe-haven appeal may weaken temporarily; conversely, if negotiations stall, it could reignite upward momentum.

As major global gold consumers and central bank gold buyers, Asia's large countries will continue to provide fundamental support for the international gold market due to their stable demand, especially in the current environment of multiple uncertainties.

Editor's Summary:
Gold prices this week reflect a market balance between macroeconomic easing and geopolitical optimism. Short-term volatility is likely to continue, with the ultimate direction depending on the actual progress of US-Iran negotiations and key economic data. Investors should remain cautious and pay attention to key technical levels and unforeseen events.