US consumer spending has shown greater resilience than expected, with retailers expanding hiring against the trend, but underlying economic concerns are quietly emerging.
2026-05-11 10:50:18
Amidst multiple intertwined economic risks, the US consumer market has demonstrated strong resilience, with consumer spending showing no significant decline. This has fueled a hiring boom in the retail sector this year, pushing employment back to a relatively high level. Simultaneously, employment in the express delivery and logistics industry has rebounded, and business confidence in hiring has significantly improved. However, industry institutions and leading companies have issued warning signals: geopolitical tensions pushing up oil prices and consumer confidence plummeting could reverse the current expansionary trend in retail employment.
Despite disruptions from multiple factors including the situation in Iran, rising oil prices, inflation, and tariff policies, American consumers maintained a stable spending pace, supporting retailers' continued expansion of employment. Preliminary employment statistics released by the U.S. government last Friday showed that the retail sector added nearly 22,000 jobs in April, accounting for nearly one-fifth of the total job growth nationwide that month. The total number of people employed in the retail sector has now reached 15.5 million, the highest level since July 2024.
The robust performance of the consumer market has emboldened retailers to hire more staff to supplement shelf operations and cashier services.
Cory Stahle, a senior economist at a job search platform, said that even in an environment of multiple uncertainties, household consumption expenditures remain highly resilient, which sends a positive signal to the retail sector and the overall economic trend.
Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that warehouse clubs and large supermarkets were the main hirers in April, while traditional department stores and the electronics retail sector saw job losses. The express delivery and logistics industry added 38,000 jobs that month, accounting for nearly one-third of the total monthly job growth. Eugenio Aleman, chief economist at a financial institution, believes that the recovery in logistics employment compensated for job losses caused by weather factors at the beginning of the year, and also pushed overall employment data significantly beyond market expectations.
Another set of preliminary official data shows that the number of monthly job openings in the retail industry in March this year hit a new high since 2023, surging by 48% year-on-year, while the number of job openings across the United States declined during the same period, highlighting the strong demand for labor in the retail industry.
Cory Stahle's analysis suggests that the large-scale expansion of hiring in the retail industry stems from businesses' optimism about consumers' continued spending power despite economic shocks, reflecting a significant shift in market sentiment compared to 2025. At that time, businesses were generally concerned that tariff policies would increase operating costs and suppress market demand, leading most to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Now, with improved business confidence, companies are willing to proactively increase their hiring activities.
Beneath the surface of current positive consumption and employment, various risk warning signals have already emerged. Home appliance giant Whirlpool stated last Wednesday that the US industry's performance has entered a recessionary downturn due to the impact of the situation in Iran on consumer confidence. McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski subsequently told analysts that current consumer spending is showing signs of weakening.
Data released by the University of Michigan last Friday showed that the U.S. consumer confidence index hit a new record low.
Joanne Hsu, the survey's lead investigator, stated that geopolitical tensions driving up gasoline prices are the core reason for the decline in market confidence. Industry insiders warn that persistently high oil prices may prompt people to cut back on non-essential consumption, and if demand declines, the retail sector may be forced to reduce new job creation and downsize its workforce.
Cory Stahle acknowledged that while the economy has short-term growth momentum, uncertainties such as geopolitical situations are still brewing and may have a significant impact on the retail and related industries in the coming months.
Overall, the resilience of US consumption has supported the retail sector's counter-trend expansion in hiring, with both employment and labor demand strengthening and business confidence continuing to recover. However, risks such as high oil prices, weak consumer confidence, and weakening performance of industry leaders cannot be ignored. Whether the expansion of employment in the retail sector can continue depends on the evolution of the consumer fundamentals and external risks.
The retail industry has bucked the trend by expanding recruitment, and employment data continues to show signs of recovery.
Despite disruptions from multiple factors including the situation in Iran, rising oil prices, inflation, and tariff policies, American consumers maintained a stable spending pace, supporting retailers' continued expansion of employment. Preliminary employment statistics released by the U.S. government last Friday showed that the retail sector added nearly 22,000 jobs in April, accounting for nearly one-fifth of the total job growth nationwide that month. The total number of people employed in the retail sector has now reached 15.5 million, the highest level since July 2024.
The robust performance of the consumer market has emboldened retailers to hire more staff to supplement shelf operations and cashier services.
Cory Stahle, a senior economist at a job search platform, said that even in an environment of multiple uncertainties, household consumption expenditures remain highly resilient, which sends a positive signal to the retail sector and the overall economic trend.
Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that warehouse clubs and large supermarkets were the main hirers in April, while traditional department stores and the electronics retail sector saw job losses. The express delivery and logistics industry added 38,000 jobs that month, accounting for nearly one-third of the total monthly job growth. Eugenio Aleman, chief economist at a financial institution, believes that the recovery in logistics employment compensated for job losses caused by weather factors at the beginning of the year, and also pushed overall employment data significantly beyond market expectations.
Demand for labor has surged and business confidence has recovered significantly.
Another set of preliminary official data shows that the number of monthly job openings in the retail industry in March this year hit a new high since 2023, surging by 48% year-on-year, while the number of job openings across the United States declined during the same period, highlighting the strong demand for labor in the retail industry.
Cory Stahle's analysis suggests that the large-scale expansion of hiring in the retail industry stems from businesses' optimism about consumers' continued spending power despite economic shocks, reflecting a significant shift in market sentiment compared to 2025. At that time, businesses were generally concerned that tariff policies would increase operating costs and suppress market demand, leading most to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Now, with improved business confidence, companies are willing to proactively increase their hiring activities.
Multiple concerns emerge as retail expansion harbors downside risks.
Beneath the surface of current positive consumption and employment, various risk warning signals have already emerged. Home appliance giant Whirlpool stated last Wednesday that the US industry's performance has entered a recessionary downturn due to the impact of the situation in Iran on consumer confidence. McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski subsequently told analysts that current consumer spending is showing signs of weakening.
Data released by the University of Michigan last Friday showed that the U.S. consumer confidence index hit a new record low.
Joanne Hsu, the survey's lead investigator, stated that geopolitical tensions driving up gasoline prices are the core reason for the decline in market confidence. Industry insiders warn that persistently high oil prices may prompt people to cut back on non-essential consumption, and if demand declines, the retail sector may be forced to reduce new job creation and downsize its workforce.
Cory Stahle acknowledged that while the economy has short-term growth momentum, uncertainties such as geopolitical situations are still brewing and may have a significant impact on the retail and related industries in the coming months.
Summarize
Overall, the resilience of US consumption has supported the retail sector's counter-trend expansion in hiring, with both employment and labor demand strengthening and business confidence continuing to recover. However, risks such as high oil prices, weak consumer confidence, and weakening performance of industry leaders cannot be ignored. Whether the expansion of employment in the retail sector can continue depends on the evolution of the consumer fundamentals and external risks.
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