At a critical juncture in its efforts to end the war through negotiations, Iran faces an unprecedentedly thorny problem: its new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is completely "out of sight," offering no mention of negotiations. Since the February airstrike that killed his father (former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei) and his wife and children, and seriously injured him, the new leader has vanished from public view. His existence is only hinted at through images allegedly generated or modified by AI, and empty written texts.

Deconstructing the Four Core Contradictions

I. Internal divisions intensify: Hardliners question the legitimacy of peace talks

A Yale University expert on Iran said that Khamenei's prolonged absence from public view has deeply unsettled his hardline supporters. They have begun posting on social media, pleading with Khamenei to at least release a voice message to clearly express his support for peace talks.

Hardliners have targeted Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, who plays a key role in the negotiations, arguing that he has made too many concessions to the United States and that his stance is too weak. In their view, the absence of the Supreme Leader means that the peace talks lack a "final verdict."

II. An Unprecedented "Specter Rule"

To date, the Iranian government has not released any new images of Khamenei. Whether it's his X account profile picture or the giant billboards in Tehran, all official images appear to be AI-generated or modified. Iranian officials haven't even released any recordings—in contrast, his predecessors would have used recordings when their security was threatened.

Last Thursday, President Peschiszan publicly acknowledged for the first time that he had met with Khamenei, saying the meeting lasted two and a half hours. However, the statement only emphasized the format of the meeting, remaining vague about the time, place, and content of the discussions, thus failing to dispel doubts.

III. Conflicting Official Explanations

Iranian officials have offered conflicting explanations: on the one hand, they claim Khamenei is keeping a low profile for security reasons (Israel still keeps him on its top assassination list); on the other hand, a senior official disclosed details of his injuries for the first time last Friday—knee and back injuries—but insisted he was in good health.

"He will address everyone personally at the appropriate time," said Hussein, a senior official in the Supreme Leader's office. However, this did not quell speculation about whether he was still alive.

IV. Limited Written Communication and Historical Comparison

Khamenei's public communication is limited to written statements released through official channels, read aloud by news anchors on state television. His X account has posted over 150 posts, frequently mentioning national unity, resilience, and revenge, with content so hollow that many supporters doubt whether he was personally involved in drafting them.

Historical comparisons highlight the severity of the problem: First Supreme Leader Khomeini made the difficult decision to end the Iran-Iraq War, a decision that was akin to "drinking poison"; his father, Ali Khamenei, publicly gave the green light to negotiations on the Iran nuclear deal. Now, however, no one has the same authority to "make the final decision" on ceasefire negotiations.

Uncertainties surrounding the prospects of peace talks

For hardline supporters of Iran, Khamenei's disappearance is evolving into a legitimacy crisis. An expert from the Middle East Institute points out, "They won't tire of constantly holding up his posters, because those posters represent the Islamic Republic, not Mujtaba himself."

However, the crux of the problem lies in the absence of Iran's "final arbitrator" at this crucial moment when historic concessions from the highest authority are required. Whether he is seriously injured, in hiding, or deceased, this vacuum is eroding the consensus on peace talks within Iran and could have a profound impact on the final outcome of the ceasefire negotiations.

Analysts point out that the prolonged absence of Iran's Supreme Leader has created a leadership vacuum, leaving any peace negotiations without a final decision-maker. This directly exacerbates internal divisions within Iran, weakens the possibility of reaching a ceasefire consensus, and may prolong the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Against the backdrop of rapidly depleting global oil inventories, this geopolitical uncertainty will continue to inject risk premiums, supporting high oil prices and exacerbating short-term volatility.

At 11:18 Beijing time, US crude oil is currently trading at $99.87 per barrel.