May 15th Financial Breakfast: The US-China meeting released positive signals, putting pressure on gold prices and potentially testing the $4600 level; OPEC+'s lack of action on production increases supported oil prices.
2026-05-15 07:30:12

Key Focus Today

stock market
U.S. stocks rose on Thursday, boosted by a rebound in technology stocks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes hit new closing highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed just 0.3% below its February record high. Investors digested generally solid economic data while focusing on the U.S.-China meeting.
On the economic data front, April retail sales met expectations but were supported by rising gasoline prices, while import prices saw their biggest increase since October 2022. Rising energy costs have weakened market expectations for a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
Kansas City Fed President Schmid called inflation the most "imminent risk" to the U.S. economy, but said the economy is "resilient." In other stock news, Cisco announced it would lay off nearly 4,000 employees and raise its revenue forecast, sending its stock soaring 13.4% to a record high; Boeing fell 4.7%; and chipmaker Cerebras surged 68.2% on its first day of trading.
Gold Market
Gold prices edged lower on Thursday, with spot gold down 0.78% to $4,652.27 an ounce, as the market closely watched the latest developments in the Middle East and the US-China meeting.

Bart Melek, global head of commodities strategy at TD Securities, said that if the Middle East conflict remains unresolved, gold faces a significant risk of decline, as energy product inventories and supplies could plummet, driving up overall inflation. Driven by soaring energy prices, both US producer and consumer prices rose sharply in April, and market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have largely subsided. Rising interest rates typically put pressure on non-yielding gold.
Analysts point out that gold prices lack a clear direction as the market weighs ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, the economic impact of the Middle East conflict, and expectations for a solution reached at the US-China summit.
In other precious metals, spot silver fell 4.53% to $83.48, platinum fell 3.1% to $2,071.53, and palladium fell 3.5% to $1,447.52.
oil market
Oil prices closed largely unchanged on Thursday, with Brent crude rising 0.97% to $106.57 a barrel and WTI crude rising 1.01% to $102.02 a barrel. Earlier, Iranian state media reported that approximately 30 ships had transited the Strait of Hormuz, easing some supply concerns. However, the sinking of an Indian cargo ship near Oman and the detention of another ship off the coast of the United Arab Emirates, which was then taken to Iran, continued to exacerbate market concerns about energy supply.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard stated that 30 ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since Wednesday evening, but this is far below the pre-war normal daily total of 140 ships. An oil tanker managed by Japan's Eneos Group successfully passed through.
The International Monetary Fund, citing factors such as war and the blockade of the Straits, pointed out that the global economy is entering a "middle adverse scenario," with global real GDP growth falling from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.5% this year; the International Energy Agency stated that with inventories being depleted at an unprecedented rate, global oil supply will be unable to meet aggregate demand this year.
Foreign exchange market
The dollar rose for the fourth straight session on Thursday, with the dollar index gaining 0.41% to 98.88, as economic data continued to push the market away from expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, while investors closely watched the progress of US-China trade negotiations.

U.S. retail sales rose 0.5% in April, in line with expectations. Initial jobless claims rose slightly to 211,000 last week, indicating a stable job market. Import prices surged 1.9% due to the biggest increase in fuel costs in four years, far exceeding expectations.
Federal Reserve official Schmid said inflation is the biggest risk to the U.S. economy, but the economy has shown resilience. The market has largely ruled out the possibility of a rate cut this year, and the expectation of a rate hike in 2027 has risen to 36.9%.
The euro fell 0.29% to $1.1676, and the pound sterling plunged 0.94% to $1.3395 as the British government was embroiled in turmoil; the dollar rose 0.22% against the yen to 158.19.
International News
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 96.8%, while the probability of a rate hike in December has risen to 44.7%.
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by June is 96.8%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 3.2%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by July is 93.8%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 3.1%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 3.1%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 53.5%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 1.7%, and the probability of at least a rate hike of 25 basis points is 44.7% (31.8% the previous day).
The resignation of a Labour MP in the UK may pave the way for a potential leadership race for Manchester mayor.
Labour MP Josh Simmons, representing the Markfield constituency in Greater Manchester, said on social media that the UK Parliament and government often become obstacles to progress, and that the current government has failed to advance the reforms needed in its own constituency. He decided to "make way" for Burnham, calling him "honest, trustworthy, and reliable." Shortly after Simmons announced his resignation, Burnham confirmed on social media that he would apply to the Labour National Executive Committee to run in the Markfield by-election, stating that he could do limited things in Manchester and that greater changes were needed at the national level, thus seeking a return to Parliament. Burnham served as an MP from 2001 to 2017 and subsequently became Mayor of Manchester. He had previously sought a return to Parliament through a by-election, but his application was not approved by the Labour National Executive Committee. If he successfully returns to the House of Commons, Burnham will gain preliminary eligibility to run for Labour party leader. The Labour Party suffered a crushing defeat in local elections last week, and Starmer has been mired in a governing crisis for days. According to statistics, over 90 Labour MPs have called for Starmer's resignation, but several cabinet ministers have also voiced their support. Earlier on the 14th, Health and Social Care Secretary Wes Streatine announced his resignation. Previously, sources close to Streatine indicated he was preparing to resign to run for Labour leadership and had begun garnering support from Labour MPs. (CCTV News)
The US House of Representatives once again rejected a bill to limit Trump's war powers.
The U.S. House of Representatives narrowly rejected a Democratic-led resolution aimed at halting war against Iran. The resolution would have required a cessation of hostilities unless authorized by Congress. The vote was 212-212, failing to secure a simple majority. This was the third time this year that the House had voted on a war powers resolution against Iran, and the first since the 60-day war deadline expired on May 1. Under the relevant rules, Trump was required to explain the war to Congress before that deadline. Trump had previously declared that the ceasefire had “ended” hostilities against Iran. The margins in these votes have been narrowing. The previous vote was 213-214, with one senator casting an "attendance vote." The Senate vote was similarly tight. On Wednesday, the Senate blocked a war powers resolution by a vote of 50-49, with three Republican senators and all but one Democratic senator voting in favor of it.
Trump's ethics filings reveal his involvement in US stock market transactions.
Two new financial disclosures released Thursday by the U.S. Office of Government Ethics revealed that President Trump disclosed at least $220 million in securities transactions involving major U.S. companies earlier this year. The latest reports cover the first three months of 2026, providing only a broad range for the transaction amounts without specifying exact figures, with the total transaction volume ranging from $220 million to $750 million. Purchases included securities related to companies such as Microsoft, Metaverse, Oracle, Broadcom, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs, as well as municipal bond transactions. Large purchases, ranging from $1 million to $5 million, included S&P 500 index funds, Nvidia, and Apple; large sales, ranging from $5 million to $25 million, included Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta. The disclosures did not specify the exact type of securities, nor did they indicate whether they were common stocks or corporate bonds.
Israel says it hopes to establish formal diplomatic relations with Lebanon during the third round of talks.
An Israeli government official confirmed to Xinhua News Agency on the 14th that the third round of talks between Israel and Lebanon was held that day in Washington, D.C. Israel hopes to disarm Hezbollah and reach an agreement to establish formal diplomatic relations with Lebanon. The unnamed Israeli official said the negotiations were held at the U.S. State Department. The Israeli delegation consisted of Israeli Ambassador to the U.S., Lighthizer, and senior security officials; the Lebanese delegation included Lebanese Ambassador to the U.S., Muawad, and former Lebanese Ambassador to the U.S., Karam. The Israeli official said the aim of this round of talks was to disarm Hezbollah and reach an agreement to establish formal diplomatic relations with Lebanon. Israel hopes to retain the freedom to conduct air and ground military strikes against Hezbollah until an agreement is reached, while Lebanon demands that Israel withdraw its troops from its territory, cease attacks on Lebanon, and stop destroying villages on the Lebanese side of the provisional border between Israel and Lebanon. The Israeli official also said that the talks are expected to continue on the 15th, but it is unclear whether the two sides are close to reaching an agreement. (Xinhua)
Production increases remain on paper; OPEC+ still plans to push forward with quotas.
According to several representatives, key OPEC+ members plan to continue pushing forward with their production quota increases in the coming months, aiming to restore the final portion of previously suspended capacity by the end of September. OPEC+ had previously formally agreed to restore approximately two-thirds of the 1.65 million barrels per day production cuts implemented in 2023. Three representatives stated that the alliance plans to continue increasing its production targets in phases over the next three months to restore the remaining portion. However, due to the disruption of Persian Gulf exports caused by the Iran-Iraq War, most major members are unable to actually implement these production increases, and much of the increase remains on paper.
Domestic News
Xi Jinping hosts a welcoming banquet for US President Donald Trump
On the evening of May 14, President Xi Jinping hosted a banquet at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing to welcome US President Donald Trump on his visit to China. Xi Jinping emphasized that under the new circumstances, he and President Trump have met and spoken on the phone multiple times, promoting the overall stability of China-US relations. They agreed that China-US relations are the most important bilateral relationship in the world today, and can only be improved, not damaged. Cooperation benefits both countries, while confrontation harms both; they should be partners, not adversaries. They agreed to build a constructive strategic and stable China-US relationship, promote its stable, healthy, and sustainable development, and bring more peace, prosperity, and progress to the world. Trump stated that the two sides had engaged in positive and constructive dialogue. He added that US-China relations are the most important bilateral relationship in the world, and the two countries should strengthen cooperation to create a better future for the world. (Xinhua)
China's computing infrastructure development opens up a maritime track, visiting the world's first underwater data center.
The wave of artificial intelligence is sweeping the globe, and computing power is becoming a crucial basic productive force. The ultimate goal of computing power is electricity. To forge a green, intensive, and sustainable path for computing power development, my country's computing infrastructure companies have taken a different approach, building computing centers at sea. In the East China Sea east of Xiaoyangshan in Lingang, Shanghai, a striking offshore platform rises more than 20 meters above sea level. This is the world's first operational data center directly connected to sea wind, with a total investment of 1.6 billion yuan and a planned capacity of 24 megawatts. The first phase demonstration project has an installed capacity of 2.3 megawatts and a total weight of 1,950 tons, equivalent to the weight of 1,300 family cars. (CCTV News)
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs revised and issued the Implementation Plan for Comprehensive Regulation and Control of Pig Production Capacity.
Recently, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued the "Implementation Plan for Comprehensive Regulation and Control of Pig Production Capacity (Revised in 2026)". This plan comprehensively considers factors such as pork market supply and demand and the improvement of pig production efficiency, setting the national normal stock of breeding sows at around 37.5 million heads, marking the second downward adjustment of the normal stock target since February 2024. The plan clarifies that the upper limits of the green and yellow zones for breeding sow inventory, as well as the lower limit of the yellow zone, will be appropriately tightened. A tiered and coordinated production capacity regulation mechanism will be established to strengthen guidance on production and market expectations, promoting a better match between supply and demand in the pig market. Next, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will closely monitor the implementation of the plan, strengthen monitoring and early warning, ensure local responsibility is fulfilled, enhance policy coordination, and improve the comprehensive regulation and control mechanism for pig production capacity that is linked at all levels and responds promptly, so as to keep pig prices at a reasonable level and better stabilize the industry's development. (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs)
Li Qiang met with representatives of the U.S. business community.
On the afternoon of May 14, Premier Li Qiang met with representatives of the U.S. business community accompanying U.S. President Donald Trump on his visit to China at the Great Hall of the People. Representatives from companies including Apple, Nvidia, Meta, Cargill, Tesla, Boeing, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, GE Aviation, Qualcomm, Visa, Micron Technology, Mastercard, BlackRock, Blackstone, GEO, Inmena, and the New York Stock Exchange were present. (Xinhua)
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