May 22nd Financial Breakfast: Expectations of US-Iran peace talks; gold prices may test the $4600 mark, awaiting the release of the draft agreement; US oil prices dip to $96.
2026-05-22 07:27:52
On Friday (May 22, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,541 per ounce. Although the rising probability of a Fed rate hike this year put downward pressure on gold prices, expectations of a US-Iran peace talks pushed prices back above the $4,500 per ounce mark. Gold touched $4,570 per ounce on Wednesday and may test $4,600 per ounce today. Oil prices fell due to expectations of a US-Iran peace talks; US crude oil briefly fell below $96 per barrel on Wednesday and is currently trading around $97.75 per barrel. Pakistan stated that the US-Iran negotiations are moving in the right direction. Media reports indicate that a final draft of the US-Iran agreement has been reached and will be released in the coming hours.
U.S. stocks closed higher across the board on Thursday. The S&P 500 rose slightly by 0.17% after volatile trading; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.55%; and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.10%. Despite the U.S. and Iran's differing stances on uranium reserves and control of the Strait of Hormuz, investors closely watched news of peace developments on social media.
After falling in the morning session, stock indices gradually recovered in the afternoon, while oil prices reversed their gains and fell. The market volatility was attributed to investors' reaction to geopolitical rumors; with the earnings season largely over, market focus has returned to the Iran issue.
On the economic data front, the decline in initial jobless claims in the United States demonstrates the resilience of the labor market, while manufacturing activity rose to a four-year high in May.
In terms of individual stocks, Nvidia fell despite releasing an optimistic quarterly revenue forecast and announcing a share buyback; Walmart plummeted due to conservative full-year targets and executives' warnings about inflation, dragging down the consumer staples sector; quantum computing companies such as IBM surged due to the Trump administration's equity-for-funding deal; Intuit plummeted after lowering its revenue forecast and announcing layoffs.
Spot gold closed at $4,542.99 per ounce on Thursday, having briefly approached $4,600 per ounce during the session. Oil prices reversed their 3% gains in the morning session and fell due to uncertainty surrounding the resolution of the conflict between the US and Israel and Iran. Meanwhile, the US dollar index gave up its gains and the 10-year US Treasury yield fell by 0.2%, all of which were favorable for gold.
Since the outbreak of war in late February, gold prices have fallen by more than 14%. Traders now expect a 58% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least once by the end of 2026. Spot silver, platinum, and palladium have all risen slightly.
Oil prices surged as much as 4% on Thursday following a tough directive from Iran's Supreme Leader, before turning lower and ultimately closing down about 2%, with both major futures contracts hitting their lowest closing prices in nearly two weeks: Brent crude settled at $104.87 a barrel, down 0.55%; WTI crude settled at $98 a barrel, down 1.09%.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei ordered that enriched uranium must remain within the country, indicating Tehran's hardline stance against key US demands and potentially complicating negotiations. Simultaneously, Iran announced the establishment of a new "Persian Gulf Straits Authority" to oversee the Strait of Hormuz. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the proposed strait fees would hinder diplomatic agreements, but later added that Pakistani officials would travel to Iran for consultations, causing oil price gains to narrow.
ING analysts, having previously expressed disappointment, predict an average Brent crude price of $104 per barrel for the quarter; UBS, on the other hand, has raised its oil price forecast, expecting Brent crude to reach $105 per barrel and WTI crude to reach $97 per barrel in September.
The dollar index fluctuated throughout Thursday's trading session due to conflicting signals regarding the Iran nuclear deal. It initially hit a six-week high after Iran's Supreme Leader ordered that enriched uranium must remain in the country, but then gave back its gains on unconfirmed rumors of a deal, ultimately settling flat at 99.20.
Prolonged energy supply disruptions could push up US inflation and prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. In addition, slowing growth in other global economies and generally weak May Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data released by the US, Europe, the UK, and Japan have strengthened the safe-haven appeal of the US dollar.
The euro edged down 0.03% to 1.1624 against the dollar, while the pound edged up 0.07% to 1.3441. The yen fell to around 158.92 yen to the dollar, nearing the intervention threshold, but hawkish comments from Bank of Japan policy board member Junko Koeda, suggesting continued interest rate hikes, provided some support for the yen.
Trump again threatens Iran to hand over enriched uranium, saying he may destroy it after receiving it.
US President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on the 21st that Iran must hand over its highly enriched uranium, which the US would likely destroy once it received it. Answering a reporter's question, Trump said, "We'll get that highly enriched uranium. We don't need it, and we don't want it. We'll get it, and we'll likely destroy it. We won't let them have it." He also said that negotiations between the US and Iran were underway, and the outcome remained to be seen. Trump had previously threatened Iran multiple times to hand over its enriched uranium. According to US media reports on the 10th, Trump claimed that the US had been monitoring the Iranian enriched uranium buried under rubble, and that the US Space Force was responsible for this. (Xinhua)
Pakistani official: US-Iran negotiations are moving in the right direction
On May 21 local time, a Pakistani senator stated in a media interview that negotiations between Iran and Pakistan, as well as between Pakistan and the United States, are still ongoing. Pakistan is making every effort to bring all parties back to the negotiating table, reduce differences, reach an agreement, and end the war. He also stated that the US-Iran negotiations are moving in the right direction. He expressed optimism about the progress made in negotiations between Iran and the United States. (CCTV News)
Iranian Foreign Ministry: The current focus of negotiations is to end the war on all fronts.
On May 21 local time, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghae stated in a media interview that the current focus of the negotiations is ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon. He added that media reports on the nuclear issue, including uranium enrichment or a debate on uranium enrichment, are merely speculation and lack credibility. He also pointed out that accurate information regarding the details of the negotiations will be provided by authorized officials and spokespeople for the negotiating team. (CCTV News)
It is understood that the final draft of the US-Iran agreement has been reached and will be released in the next few hours.
According to reports, a final draft of the US-Iran agreement has been reached under Pakistan's mediation and is expected to be released within the next few hours. The draft includes an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire on all fronts; mutual commitments not to target infrastructure; freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz will be guaranteed under a joint monitoring mechanism; sanctions against Iran will be gradually lifted in exchange for Iran's compliance with the agreement's terms; and negotiations on unresolved issues will begin within a maximum of seven days.
Rubio: Progress in US-Iran negotiations does not guarantee a deal will be reached.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on the 21st that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have made some progress, but he could not guarantee that an agreement would be reached. He also stated that if a "good deal" could not be reached, "everyone knows" what other options the U.S. has. Rubio was traveling from Miami, Florida to Sweden to attend the NATO foreign ministers' meeting. Speaking to reporters at the airport, he said that President Trump's primary desire is to reach a "good deal," and the U.S. "will do everything in its power to achieve this goal." He added, "However, the president has also made it clear that if a good deal cannot be reached, he has other alternatives." Rubio said that while there are some positive signs, he did not want to appear overly optimistic. "So, let's see what happens in the next few days." Rubio confirmed that Pakistani officials would travel to Tehran, the Iranian capital, that day, hoping the trip would further advance the negotiations. According to the Iranian Students' News Agency on the 21st, Pakistani Army Chief of Staff Munir would travel to Tehran for consultations aimed at further advancing the U.S.-Iran negotiations. Rubio also criticized NATO for not taking "any substantial action" in the U.S. war against Iran, and noted that Spain had refused to allow the U.S. to use its military bases, which the U.S. was very dissatisfied with. "What benefits does NATO actually bring to the United States?" This is precisely the issue he hopes to address at this NATO foreign ministers' meeting. (Xinhua)
US Ambassador to Denmark: Trump has ruled out the use of force against Greenland.
On May 21, local time, U.S. Ambassador to Denmark Kenneth Howeley, speaking at the opening ceremony of the new U.S. Consulate in Nuuk, the capital of Greenland, stated that U.S. President Trump has ruled out the possibility of using force against Greenland. The future of Greenland must be decided by the Greenlandic people themselves. Since returning to the White House in 2025, Trump has repeatedly threatened to acquire Greenland and has stated that he does not rule out the use of force. It is understood that the United States, Denmark, and Greenland have established a tripartite working group to discuss U.S. security concerns in the Arctic region. According to Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, the working group will "try to find solutions" without crossing Denmark's "red lines." (CCTV News)
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year has risen slightly to 60.5%, up from 53% the previous day.
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by June is 96.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 0%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 3.2%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by July is 85.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 0%, and the probability of at least a 25 basis point rate hike is 14.6%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 39.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut has decreased to 0% (from 1.2% the previous day), and the probability of at least a 25 basis point rate hike is 60.5% (from 53% the previous day).
US mortgage rates rise to highest level since August; war fuels inflation.
U.S. mortgage rates jumped to their highest level since August this week, threatening the nascent spring home-selling season. Freddie Mac reported on Thursday that the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage jumped to 6.51% from 6.36%, the largest weekly increase since the end of March. The housing market has been constrained by geopolitical tensions, with the Iran war pushing up oil prices, inflation, and bond yields. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is hovering near a one-year high, while the 30-year Treasury yield is not far from its highest level since 2007. Analysts who previously expected a Federal Reserve rate cut are now weighing the possibility of a rate hike. Even so, the market has been more resilient than expected. The National Association of Realtors said Tuesday that pending home sales rose for the third consecutive month in April. Data from Realtor.com shows that both new listings and pending sales are at their highest levels since 2022. Compared to the sluggish performance last spring, homebuyers are at least not facing the average mortgage rate of 6.86% a year ago.
US Secretary of State Rubio: The chances of reaching an agreement with Cuba are "unlikely".
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Thursday that the likelihood of the U.S. and Cuba reaching a peace agreement through negotiations is currently low. Meanwhile, Washington is intensifying pressure on the Cuban government. Rubio stated that the U.S. has always preferred to resolve issues through negotiations. He told reporters, "We maintain this stance with Cuba. I'm just being frank with you, given who we're dealing with right now, the chances aren't high. But if they change their minds, we're ready. In the meantime, we'll continue to do what we're supposed to do." Rubio also stated that Cuba has accepted $100 million in humanitarian aid from the U.S.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio: If Iran implements a fee system in the Strait of Hormuz, a US-Iran diplomatic agreement will be difficult to reach.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Thursday that a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran would be difficult to reach if Tehran imposed a toll system in the Strait of Hormuz. Rubio stated, “Nobody in the world supports this toll system. This absolutely cannot happen. It is unacceptable. If they continue down this path, it will make a diplomatic agreement impossible. Therefore, if they try to do this, it will pose a threat to the world and is completely illegal.” He also revealed to reporters that some progress had been made in negotiations with Tehran to end the U.S.-Israel war against Iran, but Washington was facing “a system that is somewhat fragmented.” “There are some positive signs,” Rubio said. “I don’t want to be overly optimistic… So, let’s see what happens in the next few days.”
"Sea behemoths" line up to set sail, my country's shipbuilding industry leads the global market.
In the first quarter of 2026, my country's shipbuilding industry continued to lead the world in three key indicators: shipbuilding completions, new orders, and order backlog. New orders increased by 195.2% year-on-year, and the order backlog increased by 43.6% year-on-year, accounting for nearly 70% of the world's total orders. Many shipyards have order books extending to 2030. (CCTV Finance)
Key Focus Today
stock market
U.S. stocks closed higher across the board on Thursday. The S&P 500 rose slightly by 0.17% after volatile trading; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.55%; and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.10%. Despite the U.S. and Iran's differing stances on uranium reserves and control of the Strait of Hormuz, investors closely watched news of peace developments on social media.
After falling in the morning session, stock indices gradually recovered in the afternoon, while oil prices reversed their gains and fell. The market volatility was attributed to investors' reaction to geopolitical rumors; with the earnings season largely over, market focus has returned to the Iran issue.
On the economic data front, the decline in initial jobless claims in the United States demonstrates the resilience of the labor market, while manufacturing activity rose to a four-year high in May.
In terms of individual stocks, Nvidia fell despite releasing an optimistic quarterly revenue forecast and announcing a share buyback; Walmart plummeted due to conservative full-year targets and executives' warnings about inflation, dragging down the consumer staples sector; quantum computing companies such as IBM surged due to the Trump administration's equity-for-funding deal; Intuit plummeted after lowering its revenue forecast and announcing layoffs.
Gold Market
Spot gold closed at $4,542.99 per ounce on Thursday, having briefly approached $4,600 per ounce during the session. Oil prices reversed their 3% gains in the morning session and fell due to uncertainty surrounding the resolution of the conflict between the US and Israel and Iran. Meanwhile, the US dollar index gave up its gains and the 10-year US Treasury yield fell by 0.2%, all of which were favorable for gold.
Since the outbreak of war in late February, gold prices have fallen by more than 14%. Traders now expect a 58% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least once by the end of 2026. Spot silver, platinum, and palladium have all risen slightly.
oil market
Oil prices surged as much as 4% on Thursday following a tough directive from Iran's Supreme Leader, before turning lower and ultimately closing down about 2%, with both major futures contracts hitting their lowest closing prices in nearly two weeks: Brent crude settled at $104.87 a barrel, down 0.55%; WTI crude settled at $98 a barrel, down 1.09%.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei ordered that enriched uranium must remain within the country, indicating Tehran's hardline stance against key US demands and potentially complicating negotiations. Simultaneously, Iran announced the establishment of a new "Persian Gulf Straits Authority" to oversee the Strait of Hormuz. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the proposed strait fees would hinder diplomatic agreements, but later added that Pakistani officials would travel to Iran for consultations, causing oil price gains to narrow.
ING analysts, having previously expressed disappointment, predict an average Brent crude price of $104 per barrel for the quarter; UBS, on the other hand, has raised its oil price forecast, expecting Brent crude to reach $105 per barrel and WTI crude to reach $97 per barrel in September.
Foreign exchange market
The dollar index fluctuated throughout Thursday's trading session due to conflicting signals regarding the Iran nuclear deal. It initially hit a six-week high after Iran's Supreme Leader ordered that enriched uranium must remain in the country, but then gave back its gains on unconfirmed rumors of a deal, ultimately settling flat at 99.20.
Prolonged energy supply disruptions could push up US inflation and prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. In addition, slowing growth in other global economies and generally weak May Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data released by the US, Europe, the UK, and Japan have strengthened the safe-haven appeal of the US dollar.
The euro edged down 0.03% to 1.1624 against the dollar, while the pound edged up 0.07% to 1.3441. The yen fell to around 158.92 yen to the dollar, nearing the intervention threshold, but hawkish comments from Bank of Japan policy board member Junko Koeda, suggesting continued interest rate hikes, provided some support for the yen.
International News
Trump again threatens Iran to hand over enriched uranium, saying he may destroy it after receiving it.
US President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on the 21st that Iran must hand over its highly enriched uranium, which the US would likely destroy once it received it. Answering a reporter's question, Trump said, "We'll get that highly enriched uranium. We don't need it, and we don't want it. We'll get it, and we'll likely destroy it. We won't let them have it." He also said that negotiations between the US and Iran were underway, and the outcome remained to be seen. Trump had previously threatened Iran multiple times to hand over its enriched uranium. According to US media reports on the 10th, Trump claimed that the US had been monitoring the Iranian enriched uranium buried under rubble, and that the US Space Force was responsible for this. (Xinhua)
Pakistani official: US-Iran negotiations are moving in the right direction
On May 21 local time, a Pakistani senator stated in a media interview that negotiations between Iran and Pakistan, as well as between Pakistan and the United States, are still ongoing. Pakistan is making every effort to bring all parties back to the negotiating table, reduce differences, reach an agreement, and end the war. He also stated that the US-Iran negotiations are moving in the right direction. He expressed optimism about the progress made in negotiations between Iran and the United States. (CCTV News)
Iranian Foreign Ministry: The current focus of negotiations is to end the war on all fronts.
On May 21 local time, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghae stated in a media interview that the current focus of the negotiations is ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon. He added that media reports on the nuclear issue, including uranium enrichment or a debate on uranium enrichment, are merely speculation and lack credibility. He also pointed out that accurate information regarding the details of the negotiations will be provided by authorized officials and spokespeople for the negotiating team. (CCTV News)
It is understood that the final draft of the US-Iran agreement has been reached and will be released in the next few hours.
According to reports, a final draft of the US-Iran agreement has been reached under Pakistan's mediation and is expected to be released within the next few hours. The draft includes an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire on all fronts; mutual commitments not to target infrastructure; freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz will be guaranteed under a joint monitoring mechanism; sanctions against Iran will be gradually lifted in exchange for Iran's compliance with the agreement's terms; and negotiations on unresolved issues will begin within a maximum of seven days.
Rubio: Progress in US-Iran negotiations does not guarantee a deal will be reached.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on the 21st that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have made some progress, but he could not guarantee that an agreement would be reached. He also stated that if a "good deal" could not be reached, "everyone knows" what other options the U.S. has. Rubio was traveling from Miami, Florida to Sweden to attend the NATO foreign ministers' meeting. Speaking to reporters at the airport, he said that President Trump's primary desire is to reach a "good deal," and the U.S. "will do everything in its power to achieve this goal." He added, "However, the president has also made it clear that if a good deal cannot be reached, he has other alternatives." Rubio said that while there are some positive signs, he did not want to appear overly optimistic. "So, let's see what happens in the next few days." Rubio confirmed that Pakistani officials would travel to Tehran, the Iranian capital, that day, hoping the trip would further advance the negotiations. According to the Iranian Students' News Agency on the 21st, Pakistani Army Chief of Staff Munir would travel to Tehran for consultations aimed at further advancing the U.S.-Iran negotiations. Rubio also criticized NATO for not taking "any substantial action" in the U.S. war against Iran, and noted that Spain had refused to allow the U.S. to use its military bases, which the U.S. was very dissatisfied with. "What benefits does NATO actually bring to the United States?" This is precisely the issue he hopes to address at this NATO foreign ministers' meeting. (Xinhua)
US Ambassador to Denmark: Trump has ruled out the use of force against Greenland.
On May 21, local time, U.S. Ambassador to Denmark Kenneth Howeley, speaking at the opening ceremony of the new U.S. Consulate in Nuuk, the capital of Greenland, stated that U.S. President Trump has ruled out the possibility of using force against Greenland. The future of Greenland must be decided by the Greenlandic people themselves. Since returning to the White House in 2025, Trump has repeatedly threatened to acquire Greenland and has stated that he does not rule out the use of force. It is understood that the United States, Denmark, and Greenland have established a tripartite working group to discuss U.S. security concerns in the Arctic region. According to Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, the working group will "try to find solutions" without crossing Denmark's "red lines." (CCTV News)
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year has risen slightly to 60.5%, up from 53% the previous day.
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by June is 96.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 0%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 3.2%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by July is 85.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 0%, and the probability of at least a 25 basis point rate hike is 14.6%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 39.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut has decreased to 0% (from 1.2% the previous day), and the probability of at least a 25 basis point rate hike is 60.5% (from 53% the previous day).
US mortgage rates rise to highest level since August; war fuels inflation.
U.S. mortgage rates jumped to their highest level since August this week, threatening the nascent spring home-selling season. Freddie Mac reported on Thursday that the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage jumped to 6.51% from 6.36%, the largest weekly increase since the end of March. The housing market has been constrained by geopolitical tensions, with the Iran war pushing up oil prices, inflation, and bond yields. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is hovering near a one-year high, while the 30-year Treasury yield is not far from its highest level since 2007. Analysts who previously expected a Federal Reserve rate cut are now weighing the possibility of a rate hike. Even so, the market has been more resilient than expected. The National Association of Realtors said Tuesday that pending home sales rose for the third consecutive month in April. Data from Realtor.com shows that both new listings and pending sales are at their highest levels since 2022. Compared to the sluggish performance last spring, homebuyers are at least not facing the average mortgage rate of 6.86% a year ago.
US Secretary of State Rubio: The chances of reaching an agreement with Cuba are "unlikely".
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Thursday that the likelihood of the U.S. and Cuba reaching a peace agreement through negotiations is currently low. Meanwhile, Washington is intensifying pressure on the Cuban government. Rubio stated that the U.S. has always preferred to resolve issues through negotiations. He told reporters, "We maintain this stance with Cuba. I'm just being frank with you, given who we're dealing with right now, the chances aren't high. But if they change their minds, we're ready. In the meantime, we'll continue to do what we're supposed to do." Rubio also stated that Cuba has accepted $100 million in humanitarian aid from the U.S.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio: If Iran implements a fee system in the Strait of Hormuz, a US-Iran diplomatic agreement will be difficult to reach.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Thursday that a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran would be difficult to reach if Tehran imposed a toll system in the Strait of Hormuz. Rubio stated, “Nobody in the world supports this toll system. This absolutely cannot happen. It is unacceptable. If they continue down this path, it will make a diplomatic agreement impossible. Therefore, if they try to do this, it will pose a threat to the world and is completely illegal.” He also revealed to reporters that some progress had been made in negotiations with Tehran to end the U.S.-Israel war against Iran, but Washington was facing “a system that is somewhat fragmented.” “There are some positive signs,” Rubio said. “I don’t want to be overly optimistic… So, let’s see what happens in the next few days.”
Domestic News
"Sea behemoths" line up to set sail, my country's shipbuilding industry leads the global market.
In the first quarter of 2026, my country's shipbuilding industry continued to lead the world in three key indicators: shipbuilding completions, new orders, and order backlog. New orders increased by 195.2% year-on-year, and the order backlog increased by 43.6% year-on-year, accounting for nearly 70% of the world's total orders. Many shipyards have order books extending to 2030. (CCTV Finance)
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- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
