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2026-06-04 07:25:06
[Limited Impact of Lebanon-Israel Ceasefire Announcement; Analysts Say Geopolitical Risk Premium Already Paid In] 1. Analyst Eamonn Sheridan points out that the ceasefire framework agreement reached between Israel and Lebanon under US mediation has a negligible impact on the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market, which has already been priced in. 2. The agreement requires Hezbollah to completely withdraw from southern Lebanon and establish a "pilot zone" under the exclusive jurisdiction of the Lebanese military. However, these conditions—especially Hezbollah's complete ceasefire and withdrawal from south of the Litani River—are precisely the key sticking points that led to the failure of previous negotiations. 3. The next round of substantive negotiations will not be held until the week of June 22, about three weeks from now. This means that the announcement does not provide an immediately feasible solution, but rather confirms that the Lebanese front remains a dynamic and uncertain factor. 4. More importantly, this development does not substantially help resolve the deadlock in the Strait of Hormuz or alleviate the broader conflict between the US and Iran that is currently driving up oil prices.
