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June 16th Financial Breakfast: The US and Iran may have signed a memorandum of understanding; gold prices rose for the third consecutive trading day; US oil prices fell; focus remains on the interest rate decisions of two central banks.

2026-06-16 07:29:41

On Tuesday (June 16, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold continued its upward trend, trading around $4,314 per ounce, benefiting from the possibility that the US and Iran have signed a memorandum of understanding, reducing the probability of a Fed rate hike this year to 57%. US crude oil, which had fallen sharply on Monday due to easing geopolitical tensions, briefly dropped below $80 per barrel and is currently trading around $81.46 per barrel. The focus of Asian trading today is on the interest rate decisions of the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia.

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Key Focus Today



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stock market


U.S. stocks rose across the board on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.96% to close at 51,684.88, a record closing high; the Nasdaq Composite jumped 3.07%, and the S&P 500 closed 1.67% higher. This was boosted by a preliminary agreement reached between the United States and Iran to end the Middle East war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Investors expect the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran to give the Federal Reserve more room to keep interest rates unchanged, driving a rebound in interest rate-sensitive technology stocks.

Another focus for the market this week is the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision, which will be the first policy meeting since the new chairman, Kevin Warsh, took office.

In terms of individual stocks, SpaceX's stock price continued to surge on the second day of its IPO, pushing its market capitalization above $2 trillion; while both companies' stock prices fell after Fox announced its $22 billion acquisition of streaming platform Roku.

Gold Market


Gold prices rose for a third straight session on Monday, boosted by a ceasefire agreement between Iran and the United States to end the war. Spot gold closed up 2.19% at $4,309.05 an ounce, hitting a more than one-week high during the session.

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The US dollar index dipped slightly by 0.2%, while US Treasury yields and oil prices fell in tandem, easing market expectations of continued inflation and rising interest rates. The CME Group's FedWatch tool showed traders lowered their probability of a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve from nearly 70% last week to 57%. Meanwhile, market focus shifted to the Fed's upcoming policy meeting on June 16-17, which will be the first press conference since new Chairman Warsh took office. His comments on the interest rate path will be key to the next move in gold prices.

In other precious metals, spot silver rose 2.92% to close at $69.94 per ounce, while platinum and palladium rose by more than 3% and 4.9% respectively. In addition, Singapore announced the establishment of an over-the-counter gold clearing system and the launch of central bank gold custody services.

oil market


Oil prices plunged nearly 4% on Monday, with Brent crude falling 3.79% to $83.46 a barrel and WTI crude falling 3.71% to $81.16 a barrel, briefly dipping below $80 a barrel during the session. Both prices hit their lowest closing prices since March 4, essentially erasing the war risk premium that had accumulated over the past few months.

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US President Trump previously stated that the United States and Iran have signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war with Iran and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with the formal signing ceremony scheduled for Friday in Geneva.

Iran has lowered its official selling price for light sweet crude oil to Asian buyers in July, and Citigroup has also lowered its Brent crude oil price forecasts for the third and fourth quarters of 2026, anticipating a return to normal trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Since the strait was closed due to war, approximately 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies have been disrupted, with over 14 million barrels per day of production capacity shut down (approximately 14% of global demand).

Analysts point out that although a large amount of crude oil may return to the market, the reconstruction of the shipping supply chain, insurance arrangements, and production recovery will still take time. In the long term, declining crude oil inventories, slow production recovery, and replenishment of strategic petroleum reserves will support oil prices.

Foreign exchange market


Boosted by the agreement reached between the US and Iran to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, market risk appetite rebounded significantly, with the US dollar hitting a 10-day low against both the euro and the pound on Monday.

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The dollar index fell 0.13% to 99.67 on Monday, the euro rose 0.25% against the dollar to 1.1597, hitting a high of 1.1622 during the session, its highest level since June 5; the pound rose slightly by 0.1% against the dollar to 1.3412.

The yen remained largely unchanged against the dollar at 160.32 yen to one dollar, staying near a sensitive level that could trigger official intervention. The simultaneous decline in oil prices and US Treasury yields further weakened the dollar's safe-haven appeal.

The market is also focused on the interest rate decisions of several major central banks this week: the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, but the market is still pricing in a 56% probability of a rate hike before the end of the year; the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates to a 31-year high of 1% at its meeting that ends on Tuesday; the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England are expected to hold rates steady.

International News


The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year has fallen to 57%.

According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 98.5%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 1.5%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by July is 91.3%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 7.4%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 1.4%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 42.1%, the probability of at least a rate hike of 25 basis points is 57.3%, and the probability of a rate cut of 25 basis points is 0.6%.

Media reports indicate that the US and Iran have signed a memorandum of understanding.

According to foreign media reports on the 15th, US President Trump and Vice President Vance have signed a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran, and the Speaker of the Iranian Islamic Parliament has also signed it. (Xinhua)

Iran: Some provisions of the Iran-US memorandum of understanding will be implemented starting from the 15th.

Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said, "We have completed the memorandum of understanding," with some provisions to be implemented on the 15th and the remainder to be implemented after the memorandum is signed on the 19th. (Xinhua)

Iranian Foreign Minister says Iran and the US will sign a memorandum of understanding on the 19th.

Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated on June 15 that a meeting between the heads of the Iranian and US negotiating delegations is expected to be held in Switzerland on June 19, where a memorandum of understanding between Iran and the US will be signed, followed by the first round of follow-up negotiations. However, citing senior US officials, it has been reported that US President Trump and Vice President Vance have already signed the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, and the Speaker of the Iranian Islamic Republic's Parliament has also signed it. US Vice President Vance stated in a media interview on June 15 that the memorandum of understanding reached between the US and Iran has been signed electronically, and the terms of the agreement are essentially finalized and in effect. (CCTV International News)

Several Iranian vessels successfully passed through the US maritime blockade zone.

According to Iranian sources on the 16th local time, three oil tankers and two ships carrying basic Iranian supplies have broken through the US-imposed maritime blockade. Other reports indicate that several Iranian vessels have successfully passed through the blockade zone. According to navigation data, an Iranian Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) is en route from international waters to an Iranian port and has passed through the blockade area. A ship carrying livestock feed has also passed through the blockade and is en route to Iran. Furthermore, another Iranian oil tanker fully loaded with crude oil has passed through the Gulf of Oman and the blockade line and is heading towards its export destination.

Eight unresolved issues left by Trump's interim Iran nuclear deal

On Monday, Trump, Vice President Vance, and Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf signed a temporary agreement online on Sunday. This temporary agreement is testing whether the US and Iran can transform the ceasefire into a comprehensive reconciliation: the first step is to manage the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, followed by addressing the more intractable issue of Iran's nuclear program. The following are eight key questions surrounding this agreement: 1. Has this agreement officially taken effect? 2. Can the Strait of Hormuz truly achieve "full opening"? 3. What benefits will Iran gain from this? 4. Have the US and Iran reached a consensus on the interpretation of the agreement's terms? 5. Will the full text of the agreement be made public? 6. Will Israel abide by this agreement? 7. Can the US and Iran ultimately reach a formal nuclear agreement? 8. If nuclear negotiations break down, will war reignite?

Netanyahu claims he was unaware of the terms of the US-Iran agreement.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on the 15th that Israel "does not know" the specific contents of the agreement reached between the United States and Iran. Netanyahu said that regardless of whether an agreement is reached, "Iran will not possess nuclear weapons." He also said that the Israeli attack caused "enormous damage" to Iran. (Xinhua)

The EU and Ukraine formally launched their first accession negotiations.

The European Council announced on the 15th that the EU and Ukraine formally launched negotiations that day on the "fundamental principles" of Ukraine's accession process. The announcement stated that the "fundamental principles" cover the EU's core values and fundamental principles, including EU laws and regulations in areas such as the rule of law and fundamental rights, the functioning of democratic institutions, public administration reform, and economic standards. The announcement pointed out that the "fundamental principles" are the core issue that will be initiated first and concluded last in the Ukraine accession negotiations, and its progress will determine the pace of the entire negotiation process. During the negotiations, the EU will continuously assess Ukraine's progress in aligning with the EU legal system and implementing relevant standards. (CCTV News)

Macron: Will not succumb to US threats and cancel digital tax

French President Emmanuel Macron responded to US President Donald Trump's tariff threats on the 15th, stating that France would not succumb to US threats and cancel the digital tax targeting US tech giants. Speaking in an interview with France 1 television in Evian-les-Bains, Macron said that the digital tax is part of the European legal system and has already been implemented in some countries; the US has no right to make laws for Europeans or the French. Earlier that day, Trump stated that the US would impose a 100% tariff on French wine unless France canceled its digital tax targeting US tech giants. Macron responded that imposing tariffs would not benefit the US because it would not solve US trade problems and would instead drive up the prices of certain goods. He expressed his hope to discuss and resolve these issues through negotiation with Trump. (Xinhua)

U.S. manufacturing output stalled for the first time this year.

U.S. manufacturing output stalled in May, ending a four-month streak of growth, suggesting that supply chain disruptions and soaring costs stemming from the Iran war may be beginning to weigh on manufacturing activity. Data released by the Federal Reserve on Monday showed that manufacturing output was essentially flat in May, while April's figure was revised upward to a 0.7% increase. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a median increase of 0.3%. Overall industrial output, including utilities and mining, rose 0.1%.

Domestic News


Semiconductor blood products and electronic specialty gas manufacturers are experiencing a surge in orders.

As the artificial intelligence industry continues to boom, the demand for AI chips and high-end memory chips is surging. The production of these chips relies heavily on a special consumable – electronic specialty gases. Electronic specialty gases are electronic-grade gases with a purity exceeding 99.99%, core materials in the field of electronic chemicals, and often referred to as the lifeblood of the semiconductor industry. Driven by strong downstream demand, many core products in the electronic specialty gas market are currently in short supply. Several specialty gas manufacturers told CCTV Finance reporters that their order backlogs have increased significantly, and production lines are operating at full capacity. At a specialty gas logistics and transportation company in Pudong New Area, Shanghai, workers in professional protective suits are strictly following operating procedures to unload, inspect, and store hundreds of types of electronic specialty gases. The company representative stated that many of these products ultimately end up in semiconductor wafer foundries. Because some electronic specialty gases are flammable, explosive, and highly hazardous chemicals, customers typically maintain zero inventory. According to the company representative, the demand for electronic specialty gas transportation from semiconductor wafer manufacturers has exploded this year, almost pushing the company's delivery operations to full capacity. (CCTV Finance)

my country has successfully completed the development of functional samples for the core technology of electromagnetic control of metasurfaces.

According to the China Academy of Space Technology (CAST), a research team from the Academy's Research and Development Center, in collaboration with Shanghai Aerospace Electronics Co., Ltd., has recently achieved a key breakthrough in the field of novel electromagnetic control technology. They successfully developed a functional sample of the core technology for metasurface electromagnetic control, achieving independent control and engineering implementation of the technology. As a core cutting-edge technology for future 6G communication and low-orbit satellite interconnection, metasurface electromagnetic control technology has a wide range of applications and strong adaptability. It can comprehensively empower commercial satellite communication, 5G/6G millimeter-wave base stations, communication relays, intelligent detection, and other cutting-edge fields, making it a recognized growth "blue ocean" sector. Under the same communication coverage effect, the new technology can significantly reduce the number of front-end communication devices deployed, improve communication area coverage performance by more than 40%, and reduce the cost of equipment investment in a single scenario by 500,000 yuan, achieving a dual breakthrough in performance upgrade and cost optimization. Simultaneously, the research team has reduced the mass production cost of high-end satellite communication and millimeter-wave communication terminals from tens of thousands of yuan to thousands of yuan, solving a core problem that has long hindered the large-scale popularization and engineering implementation of high-end communication equipment. (Xinhua News Agency)
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