In less than two years, Keir Starmer went through the entire downhill path from his epic election victory to his voluntary resignation as prime minister, becoming yet another "short-lived prime minister" in the wave of frequent political changes in Britain over the past decade.

This hasty conclusion not only reflects his complete miscalculation in terms of personal governance and policy choices, but also reveals the current divided public opinion in Britain, the structural contradictions within political parties, and the continuously declining public trust in the prime minister's position.

A life spent navigating politics: from prosecutor to politician, and now the new prime minister.

Starmer's political background is not a good match for the position of prime minister, but he is extremely good at campaigning.

He left his prosecutorial post in his fifties to enter politics. He previously headed the Crown Prosecution Service of England and Wales and was skilled in rigorous and sharp logical debates in parliamentary inquiries. He once suppressed three Conservative prime ministers in succession through debates alone, especially fiercely criticizing Johnson's scandal of violating regulations by gathering in Downing Street during the pandemic lockdown. He also successfully took over the Labour Party, which was in a deep slump.

In 2020, the Labour Party had just suffered its worst general election results since 1935, with former President Corbyn's radical left-wing policies losing two consecutive elections and the party embroiled in anti-Semitic controversies.

Starmer made sweeping changes to the party's course, abandoning extreme left-wing policies and publicly apologizing for the anti-Semitic chaos within the party. He steered the Labour Party toward the political center, winning over voters with the core narrative of "seeking stability and ending the political farce."

A sham election victory: A fundamentally flawed foundation of public opinion sowed the seeds of the regime's collapse.

In July 2024, this transformation reached its climax when the Labour Party won 411 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, ending 14 years of Conservative rule.

However, this landslide victory was riddled with fatal flaws from the start, which industry insiders call a "crushing victory without fundamental support and without any goodwill": the Labour Party held an absolute majority of parliamentary seats, but the voter turnout was only 34% . The vast majority of voters voted for the Labour Party not because they agreed with its policy platform, but purely out of disgust for the Conservative Party's years of scandals and frequent changes of prime minister. The loose and weak public opinion base was simply not enough to support long-term governance.

The day after his victory, Starmer promised at Downing Street to rebuild political credibility, downplay confrontation, and create a pragmatic government that benefits the people. However, the huge gap between his campaign slogans and actual governance became the first crack that destroyed the foundation of his rule.

A series of domestic policy missteps have continuously eroded public support and completely eroded public trust.

His series of policy mistakes after taking office have continued to erode the already fragile public support.

His early acceptance of designer eyeglasses and expensive tickets to Taylor Swift concerts sparked public outrage; subsequent policy shifts and the hasty introduction of welfare cuts directly angered working-class families and retirees.

During the Gaza conflict, he was widely perceived as having a moderate stance towards Israel, resulting in a significant loss of pro-Palestinian voters; far-right groups also continued to launch verbal attacks against him.

Starmer's restrained, conservative, and technocratic style of doing things is completely out of place in the domestic sphere. He lacks the flexible strategic thinking and risk-awareness that politicians must have, and it is difficult for him to avoid various public opinion and political minefields in advance.

Even though he comes from a working-class family, loves football, and lives a simple life, the public still holds a negative impression of him as an "elite London lawyer detached from the grassroots," and this stereotype has never been dispelled.

Fatal Decision-Making Mistakes: The Epstein Scandal as the Final Straw Breaks the camel's Back

The decisive and fatal mistake that brought down Starmer was appointing Labour Party veteran and nicknamed "The Dark Prince" Mandelson as ambassador to the United States.

The government initially hoped to leverage Mandelson's extensive trade resources and familiarity with the wealthy elite to navigate the power struggle between the US and Britain during Trump's second term. However, declassified documents revealed in September 2025 showed that Mandelson had claimed to be a "close friend" of Epstein in his early years and had close ties with criminal suspects.

Although Starmer dismissed him immediately, the related scandals that continued to unfold over the following months completely shattered the government's credibility. This indelible misjudgment indirectly dragged him into a media storm and became the core trigger for a party coup.

Diplomacy is the only means to maintain appearances: adept at foreign governance, but unable to reverse domestic decline.

With domestic affairs in complete disarray, foreign policy became one of Starmer's few bright spots.

He spearheaded European countries' coordinated support for Ukraine's fight against Russia, mediated on multiple fronts during the geopolitical crisis of the US-Israel war against Iran, and mitigated global economic and political turmoil.

Faced with Trump's initial friendly but later fiercely sarcastic attitude, he gradually hardened his stance, while choosing limited British participation and non-deep involvement in the Iraq War, which aligned with the mainstream demands of the British people.

However, the impressive diplomatic achievements could not offset the multiple pressures of domestic issues such as people's livelihood, public opinion, and internal party conflicts.

The party's fate was sealed: a crushing defeat in the election forced Starmer to step down gracefully.

Internal party conflicts finally erupted in the local and regional midterm elections in May this year, resulting in a complete defeat for the Labour Party, the loss of thousands of local seats, a series of resignations by cabinet officials, and a clear signal of no confidence from the parliamentary caucus.

Former Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham seized the window of opportunity to win a seat in the House of Commons through a by-election, giving him full eligibility to compete for the Labour Party leadership, making a change of power within the party a foregone conclusion.

On Monday, Starmer issued a somber resignation statement, announcing his resignation as Labour leader and his appointment as caretaker prime minister until a new party leader is elected. He admitted that the entire party had reached a consensus that he was no longer suitable to lead the team in the next election.

Even though he listed his achievements in his statement—easing the pressure on the National Health Service waiting list, improving the rights of workers and renters, and showing signs of economic recovery in Britain before the outbreak of the Iraq War—and claimed that Britain was stronger and more equitable when he left office, he could no longer reverse the continuously declining public opinion.

A common problem in British politics: declining public trust in prime ministers and generally short tenures in office.

Starmer's untimely resignation after only two years is not an isolated case, but rather a concentrated manifestation of the long-standing "short-lived prime ministers" in British politics.

Over the past decade, Britain has had seven prime ministers. During the Conservative Party era, Johnson and Truss were ousted in quick succession, and now the Labour Party is also facing the predicament of a significantly shortened term in office.

At its root, the problem stems from the deep divisions in British society and the severe polarization of voter demands , making it difficult for a single political party to maintain stable and lasting public support.

Secondly , the alternation of power between the two parties has accumulated a large number of livelihood issues, the economic recovery is slow, the shortcomings in public services are prominent , and the public’s trust in the prime minister and parliament as a whole continues to decline.

Third, factional infighting within political parties has become the norm. Once approval ratings decline, internal power struggles and reshuffling of power quickly occur, and Downing Street gradually becomes a transitional stage for short-term rotations, with the prime minister's public image continuing to fall to a low level.

With the Prime Minister's resignation finalized, the pound sterling has entered a typical "sell the news" phase.

Following Starmer's resignation announcement on Monday, the pound did not continue to weaken as the market had anticipated. Instead, it exhibited a typical "sell the news" recovery pattern, quickly erasing previous losses and steadily rising, perfectly aligning with the forex trading principle of "buy the rumor, sell the fact."

Over the past few months, the market had already been pricing in the risk of Starmer's resignation. News of his crushing defeat in the local elections, Burnham's candidacy, and the cabinet's pressure on him to step down continued to escalate. The pound had already priced in the negative impact of the prime minister's change of leadership. The long-standing expectation of political turmoil that had been looming over the market was fully realized after the resignation announcement. This is a classic case of the worst-case scenario being fully priced in. The uncertainty premium that had been suppressing the pound was quickly stripped away, and funds actively returned to cover long positions in the pound, directly driving a rebound in the exchange rate.

The Labour Party is currently highly unified, with its leading candidate, Burnham, receiving public support from key party figures. He is likely to assume the presidency smoothly without fierce competition, avoiding the chaos of multiple candidates vying for power or drastic policy shifts. Furthermore, Burnham has recently downplayed his earlier, more radical fiscal expansion proposals, signaling a pragmatic approach and strict adherence to fiscal discipline. This has alleviated institutional concerns about disorderly spending in the UK, which could drive up inflation and government bond yields. Consequently, risk appetite has recovered in both the bond and currency markets, with several investment banks resuming their bullish views on the pound.

From a technical perspective, the euro/pound pair found support at the bottom of its trading range, which was a previous area of high trading volume. Resistance is around 0.865, where it is unlikely to fall further.


(Euro/Pound Sterling daily chart, source: FX678)

At 17:32 Beijing time, the euro was trading at 0.8624/25 against the pound.