July 9th Financial Breakfast: The US-Iran interim agreement is nullified; gold prices barely hold the $4,000 mark; Iran retaliates against US military bases; oil prices see strong bullish momentum.
2026-07-09 07:14:16
On Thursday (July 9, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,076 per ounce. Spot gold touched its lowest level since July 1 at $4,021.70 per ounce on Wednesday, as US President Trump declared the interim agreement aimed at ending the conflict with Iran "null and void" and warned of possible further strikes, prompting Iran to retaliate against US military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait, exacerbating market concerns about inflation. Benefiting from the geopolitical tensions, oil prices surged, with US crude oil rising more than 3% on Wednesday and currently trading around $74.54 per barrel.
U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 falling 0.28% to 7,482.71, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging 1.09% to 52,348.39, and the Nasdaq Composite rising slightly by 0.20% to 25,870.65. This was mainly due to U.S. President Trump's declaration during the NATO summit that the interim agreement aimed at ending the war with Iran was "over" and his warning of possible further strikes.
Trump's remarks dragged down the industrial and materials sectors by 3.41% and 2.45% respectively, while airline and cruise stocks also suffered; however, the chip sector bucked the trend and rose, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising 2.23%. Broadcom rose 4.8% after Apple announced it would spend more than $30 billion as part of a chip supply agreement, and Nvidia rose 3.65%.
Meanwhile, SpaceX shares continued to fall to $148.38 after its IPO, while Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta all fell by more than 1%. On the same day, the International Monetary Fund lowered its 2026 global GDP growth forecast to 3%, and the minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting showed that officials supported a more concise policy statement due to inflation concerns, with the market expecting a possible rate hike in December.
Gold prices fell on Wednesday, with spot gold closing down 0.69% at $4,077.19 an ounce, hitting its lowest level since July 1 during the session. This was mainly due to US President Trump's announcement that the interim agreement aimed at ending the conflict with Iran was "null and void" and his warning of possible further strikes, prompting Iran to retaliate against US military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait, exacerbating market concerns about inflation.
Meanwhile, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting showed that policymakers were increasingly concerned about the widening range of inflation, with some officials supporting an immediate rate hike. Traders' expectations for a rate hike in September have risen to 69%, further weakening the appeal of gold, a non-interest-bearing asset.
In addition, Bank of America lowered its 2026 average gold price forecast by 14% to $4,360 in a report on Tuesday, but believes that gold prices could still reach $5,000 after the tightening cycle ends.
Other precious metals also weakened, with spot silver falling 2.83% to $58.25, platinum falling 3.6% to $1580.92, and palladium falling 4.5% to $1219.84.
Oil prices closed sharply higher on Wednesday, with Brent crude rising 4.53% to $79.27 a barrel, a new high since June 19, and WTI crude rising 3.55% to $74.46, hitting a high of $76.08 a barrel, the highest since June 22, as US President Trump declared the interim agreement aimed at ending the conflict with Iran "null and void" and threatened possible new strikes, triggering market concerns about obstruction of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, although gains were somewhat narrowed after Trump ruled out the possibility of a full-scale war.
Meanwhile, Russia announced a ban on diesel exports that day, coupled with Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries and pipelines, which pushed U.S. ultra-low sulfur diesel futures up by more than 14%, and the U.S. 3-2-1 crack spread hit a record high. EIA data showed that U.S. distillate fuel inventories fell by nearly 5 million barrels last week due to strong demand and robust exports, but crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased.
The dollar index edged down to 101.07 on Wednesday, as President Trump declared the interim agreement aimed at ending the conflict with Iran null and void and threatened new strikes, but subsequently ruled out the possibility of a full-scale war, limiting the dollar's gains. Meanwhile, soaring oil prices and rising U.S. Treasury yields also impacted the currency market.
The minutes of the Fed's June meeting showed that policymakers were increasingly concerned about inflation, with some officials supporting an immediate rate hike. The market's probability of a rate hike in July rose to 30.5% and in September to 65.7%, but crowded long positions in the dollar put it under pressure to correct.
In other currencies, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's 25 basis point rate hike to 2.5% pushed the New Zealand dollar up 0.49% to 0.5705 against the US dollar, the pound sterling hit a three-week high before closing up 0.25% at 1.3386, the euro rose slightly by 0.03% to 1.1414, and the US dollar rose for the fourth consecutive day to 162.70 against the Japanese yen, with traders wary of possible intervention by Japanese authorities.
Iran to launch large-scale attack on US military bases
Early this morning (July 9th) local time, according to Iran's Noor News Agency, citing a military source, Iran's armed forces missile and drone units will launch a large-scale attack on US bases in the Middle East "within the next few minutes." (CCTV International News)
Trump makes a series of statements at the NATO summit: pressuring allies and hinting at the collapse of the US-Iran agreement.
During the NATO summit, US President Trump delivered a series of speeches, sending multiple signals regarding Iran, European allies, and relations within NATO. He stated that "Iran very much wants to reach an agreement," but was "uncertain whether Iran will abide by the agreement," while emphasizing that the US has many ways to win, and calling himself "Iran's number one target," having just carried out a "powerful strike" against Iran, suggesting that the US-Iran interim memorandum of understanding may have broken down.
Israeli media: Israeli military raises combat readiness level due to US-Iran tensions
According to a report by Israel's Channel 12 television on the 8th, as tensions escalate between the United States and Iran, the Israeli defense department is preparing for a potential rapid deterioration of the situation. The report stated that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu planned to convene a security situation assessment meeting on the evening of the 8th, which Defense Minister Katz would attend. Meanwhile, the Israeli military has raised its overall combat readiness level. The report also noted that the Israeli military is maintaining close coordination with the U.S. Central Command. (Xinhua)
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 69%.
According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 69%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 31%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 31.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 51.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 17%.
The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that a minority of officials advocated for a rate hike in June.
The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its June policy meeting on Wednesday, revealing that a minority of Fed officials believed conditions were in place for a June rate hike. The market was previously unaware of the presence of supporters of a rate hike last month. At the June meeting, Fed officials ultimately voted to keep interest rates unchanged. The minutes noted that while those advocating for a rate hike acknowledged its rationale, they still supported maintaining the current target range for the interest rate "at this meeting." The fact that some officials had raised the possibility of a rate hike as early as June further confirms the growing support within the Fed for a rate hike this year.
Iranian sources: Iran will retaliate tenfold if attacked.
Iran's Press TV, citing a source, reported on the 8th that Iran will not relinquish its control over the Strait of Hormuz. If attacked, it will retaliate tenfold. The source stated that Iran is prepared to fight for control of the Strait of Hormuz. If attacked, Iran will completely close the Strait of Hormuz and retaliate against enemy targets with at least twice the scale of any attack suffered. (Xinhua)
Russia announces complete ban on diesel exports
Following a series of drone attacks on multiple oil refineries in Russia, the country has imposed a diesel export ban to prevent domestic fuel shortages. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated at a government meeting attended by President Putin, "We are issuing a diesel export ban today." Prior to this ban, Russia had already implemented export controls on most gasoline and aviation kerosene. Even before the ban, Russian diesel and fuel oil exports had already declined significantly.
Domestic flight bookings exceeded 30 million in July.
Entering July, the travel demand from students and families with children has surged, and the summer tourism market continues to heat up. With the fuel surcharge reduction on July 5th, travel costs for passengers have further decreased. Data from booking platforms shows that recent summer flight searches and ticket sales have both reached new highs since the start of the summer travel season. As of today (July 8th), domestic flight bookings for July exceeded 30.64 million, an increase of approximately 89% compared to a week ago; international flight bookings exceeded 6.24 million, an increase of approximately 24% compared to a week ago. Industry insiders stated that, so far, for the summer months of July and August, flight bookings to destinations such as Chengdu, Chongqing, Haikou, Nanjing, and Dalian have increased by over 80% year-on-year. Taking departures from Beijing as an example, in the next two weeks, direct flights to Lanzhou and Ningbo will cost only around 400 yuan; the lowest price from Shanghai to Lanzhou and Qingdao is around 300 yuan. (CCTV Finance)
Some large-scale AI models in China are 90% cheaper than those in the US.
According to a CNBC report on July 7th, influenced by the continued price increases of AI models from leading US companies, Chinese AI models are rapidly expanding their application in US enterprises due to their cost-effectiveness. Industry insiders point out that the performance of some leading open-source and open weighted models in China is currently about 6 to 9 months behind the technology of top-tier US models such as OpenAI and Anthropic, while their prices are 60% to 90% lower, and they can cover the vast majority of routine AI tasks, making them highly favored by US companies. According to statistics from the AI model aggregation platform OpenRouter, since February 8th of this year, the percentage of terms used by US companies to call Chinese AI models has exceeded 30% weekly, reaching a peak of 46%; while the average percentage for the previous 12 months was 11%. (CCTV Finance)
The central bank has proposed reducing financing intermediary fees and will encourage small and medium-sized banks to focus on their core business.
The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China recently held its second quarterly meeting (the 113th overall) for 2026. The meeting discussed the main ideas for monetary policy in the next stage, recommending leveraging the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies to enhance the forward-looking nature, flexibility, and targeted nature of policies. It also stressed the need to carefully manage the intensity, pace, and timing of policy implementation based on domestic and international economic and financial conditions and the operation of financial markets. The meeting called for regulating credit market operations, reducing intermediary financing costs, and promoting low overall social financing costs. It also emphasized observing and assessing the bond market from a macro-prudential perspective, paying attention to changes in long-term yields. Furthermore, the meeting stressed the importance of smoothing the monetary policy transmission mechanism and improving the efficiency of fund utilization. Finally, it called for strengthening the resilience of the foreign exchange market, stabilizing market expectations, and maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. The meeting pointed out the need to guide large banks to play a leading role in financial services for the real economy and to encourage small and medium-sized banks to focus on their core businesses and enhance their capital strength. (CCTV Finance)
Key Focus Today
stock market
U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 falling 0.28% to 7,482.71, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging 1.09% to 52,348.39, and the Nasdaq Composite rising slightly by 0.20% to 25,870.65. This was mainly due to U.S. President Trump's declaration during the NATO summit that the interim agreement aimed at ending the war with Iran was "over" and his warning of possible further strikes.
Trump's remarks dragged down the industrial and materials sectors by 3.41% and 2.45% respectively, while airline and cruise stocks also suffered; however, the chip sector bucked the trend and rose, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising 2.23%. Broadcom rose 4.8% after Apple announced it would spend more than $30 billion as part of a chip supply agreement, and Nvidia rose 3.65%.
Meanwhile, SpaceX shares continued to fall to $148.38 after its IPO, while Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta all fell by more than 1%. On the same day, the International Monetary Fund lowered its 2026 global GDP growth forecast to 3%, and the minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting showed that officials supported a more concise policy statement due to inflation concerns, with the market expecting a possible rate hike in December.
Gold Market
Gold prices fell on Wednesday, with spot gold closing down 0.69% at $4,077.19 an ounce, hitting its lowest level since July 1 during the session. This was mainly due to US President Trump's announcement that the interim agreement aimed at ending the conflict with Iran was "null and void" and his warning of possible further strikes, prompting Iran to retaliate against US military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait, exacerbating market concerns about inflation.
Meanwhile, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting showed that policymakers were increasingly concerned about the widening range of inflation, with some officials supporting an immediate rate hike. Traders' expectations for a rate hike in September have risen to 69%, further weakening the appeal of gold, a non-interest-bearing asset.
In addition, Bank of America lowered its 2026 average gold price forecast by 14% to $4,360 in a report on Tuesday, but believes that gold prices could still reach $5,000 after the tightening cycle ends.
Other precious metals also weakened, with spot silver falling 2.83% to $58.25, platinum falling 3.6% to $1580.92, and palladium falling 4.5% to $1219.84.
oil market
Oil prices closed sharply higher on Wednesday, with Brent crude rising 4.53% to $79.27 a barrel, a new high since June 19, and WTI crude rising 3.55% to $74.46, hitting a high of $76.08 a barrel, the highest since June 22, as US President Trump declared the interim agreement aimed at ending the conflict with Iran "null and void" and threatened possible new strikes, triggering market concerns about obstruction of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, although gains were somewhat narrowed after Trump ruled out the possibility of a full-scale war.
Meanwhile, Russia announced a ban on diesel exports that day, coupled with Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries and pipelines, which pushed U.S. ultra-low sulfur diesel futures up by more than 14%, and the U.S. 3-2-1 crack spread hit a record high. EIA data showed that U.S. distillate fuel inventories fell by nearly 5 million barrels last week due to strong demand and robust exports, but crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased.
Foreign exchange market
The dollar index edged down to 101.07 on Wednesday, as President Trump declared the interim agreement aimed at ending the conflict with Iran null and void and threatened new strikes, but subsequently ruled out the possibility of a full-scale war, limiting the dollar's gains. Meanwhile, soaring oil prices and rising U.S. Treasury yields also impacted the currency market.
The minutes of the Fed's June meeting showed that policymakers were increasingly concerned about inflation, with some officials supporting an immediate rate hike. The market's probability of a rate hike in July rose to 30.5% and in September to 65.7%, but crowded long positions in the dollar put it under pressure to correct.
In other currencies, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's 25 basis point rate hike to 2.5% pushed the New Zealand dollar up 0.49% to 0.5705 against the US dollar, the pound sterling hit a three-week high before closing up 0.25% at 1.3386, the euro rose slightly by 0.03% to 1.1414, and the US dollar rose for the fourth consecutive day to 162.70 against the Japanese yen, with traders wary of possible intervention by Japanese authorities.
International News
Iran to launch large-scale attack on US military bases
Early this morning (July 9th) local time, according to Iran's Noor News Agency, citing a military source, Iran's armed forces missile and drone units will launch a large-scale attack on US bases in the Middle East "within the next few minutes." (CCTV International News)
Trump makes a series of statements at the NATO summit: pressuring allies and hinting at the collapse of the US-Iran agreement.
During the NATO summit, US President Trump delivered a series of speeches, sending multiple signals regarding Iran, European allies, and relations within NATO. He stated that "Iran very much wants to reach an agreement," but was "uncertain whether Iran will abide by the agreement," while emphasizing that the US has many ways to win, and calling himself "Iran's number one target," having just carried out a "powerful strike" against Iran, suggesting that the US-Iran interim memorandum of understanding may have broken down.
Israeli media: Israeli military raises combat readiness level due to US-Iran tensions
According to a report by Israel's Channel 12 television on the 8th, as tensions escalate between the United States and Iran, the Israeli defense department is preparing for a potential rapid deterioration of the situation. The report stated that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu planned to convene a security situation assessment meeting on the evening of the 8th, which Defense Minister Katz would attend. Meanwhile, the Israeli military has raised its overall combat readiness level. The report also noted that the Israeli military is maintaining close coordination with the U.S. Central Command. (Xinhua)
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 69%.
According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 69%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 31%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 31.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 51.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 17%.
The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that a minority of officials advocated for a rate hike in June.
The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its June policy meeting on Wednesday, revealing that a minority of Fed officials believed conditions were in place for a June rate hike. The market was previously unaware of the presence of supporters of a rate hike last month. At the June meeting, Fed officials ultimately voted to keep interest rates unchanged. The minutes noted that while those advocating for a rate hike acknowledged its rationale, they still supported maintaining the current target range for the interest rate "at this meeting." The fact that some officials had raised the possibility of a rate hike as early as June further confirms the growing support within the Fed for a rate hike this year.
Iranian sources: Iran will retaliate tenfold if attacked.
Iran's Press TV, citing a source, reported on the 8th that Iran will not relinquish its control over the Strait of Hormuz. If attacked, it will retaliate tenfold. The source stated that Iran is prepared to fight for control of the Strait of Hormuz. If attacked, Iran will completely close the Strait of Hormuz and retaliate against enemy targets with at least twice the scale of any attack suffered. (Xinhua)
Russia announces complete ban on diesel exports
Following a series of drone attacks on multiple oil refineries in Russia, the country has imposed a diesel export ban to prevent domestic fuel shortages. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated at a government meeting attended by President Putin, "We are issuing a diesel export ban today." Prior to this ban, Russia had already implemented export controls on most gasoline and aviation kerosene. Even before the ban, Russian diesel and fuel oil exports had already declined significantly.
Domestic News
Domestic flight bookings exceeded 30 million in July.
Entering July, the travel demand from students and families with children has surged, and the summer tourism market continues to heat up. With the fuel surcharge reduction on July 5th, travel costs for passengers have further decreased. Data from booking platforms shows that recent summer flight searches and ticket sales have both reached new highs since the start of the summer travel season. As of today (July 8th), domestic flight bookings for July exceeded 30.64 million, an increase of approximately 89% compared to a week ago; international flight bookings exceeded 6.24 million, an increase of approximately 24% compared to a week ago. Industry insiders stated that, so far, for the summer months of July and August, flight bookings to destinations such as Chengdu, Chongqing, Haikou, Nanjing, and Dalian have increased by over 80% year-on-year. Taking departures from Beijing as an example, in the next two weeks, direct flights to Lanzhou and Ningbo will cost only around 400 yuan; the lowest price from Shanghai to Lanzhou and Qingdao is around 300 yuan. (CCTV Finance)
Some large-scale AI models in China are 90% cheaper than those in the US.
According to a CNBC report on July 7th, influenced by the continued price increases of AI models from leading US companies, Chinese AI models are rapidly expanding their application in US enterprises due to their cost-effectiveness. Industry insiders point out that the performance of some leading open-source and open weighted models in China is currently about 6 to 9 months behind the technology of top-tier US models such as OpenAI and Anthropic, while their prices are 60% to 90% lower, and they can cover the vast majority of routine AI tasks, making them highly favored by US companies. According to statistics from the AI model aggregation platform OpenRouter, since February 8th of this year, the percentage of terms used by US companies to call Chinese AI models has exceeded 30% weekly, reaching a peak of 46%; while the average percentage for the previous 12 months was 11%. (CCTV Finance)
The central bank has proposed reducing financing intermediary fees and will encourage small and medium-sized banks to focus on their core business.
The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China recently held its second quarterly meeting (the 113th overall) for 2026. The meeting discussed the main ideas for monetary policy in the next stage, recommending leveraging the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies to enhance the forward-looking nature, flexibility, and targeted nature of policies. It also stressed the need to carefully manage the intensity, pace, and timing of policy implementation based on domestic and international economic and financial conditions and the operation of financial markets. The meeting called for regulating credit market operations, reducing intermediary financing costs, and promoting low overall social financing costs. It also emphasized observing and assessing the bond market from a macro-prudential perspective, paying attention to changes in long-term yields. Furthermore, the meeting stressed the importance of smoothing the monetary policy transmission mechanism and improving the efficiency of fund utilization. Finally, it called for strengthening the resilience of the foreign exchange market, stabilizing market expectations, and maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. The meeting pointed out the need to guide large banks to play a leading role in financial services for the real economy and to encourage small and medium-sized banks to focus on their core businesses and enhance their capital strength. (CCTV Finance)
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- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
