The British pound (GBP/USD) maintained a modest rebound during Tuesday's Asian trading session, trading around 1.3360 . The pound gained some breathing room amid a brief consolidation after a period of continuous dollar gains. However, escalating tensions in the Middle East and persistently high risk aversion in the market kept the dollar relatively strong, limiting the pound's upside potential. US President Trump announced on Monday that the US would reinstate its maritime blockade against Iran, stating that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open to navigation under US military protection, but all transit commercial cargo would be subject to corresponding fees. Simultaneously, the US military confirmed a new round of strikes against multiple Iranian military targets, stating that over 50,000 US troops are currently deployed in the Middle East to ensure regional military operations and energy transport security. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps subsequently responded, stating that any country cooperating with US actions could further delay the resumption of normal navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and potentially trigger a global energy crisis. As tensions between the two sides continue to escalate, risks in the international energy market have increased significantly. The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of global seaborne crude oil transport . Market concerns that disruptions to energy transport could drive up international oil prices and reignite global inflationary pressures. Against the backdrop of heightened risk aversion, the US dollar, as a traditional safe-haven asset, has regained favor, putting pressure on non-US currencies, including the British pound. However, the pound itself remains supported by expectations of UK monetary policy. Recently, the market has been increasing its bets on further interest rate hikes by the Bank of England this year to address persistent inflationary pressures. Bank of England Chief Economist Hugh Peele stated that further interest rate hikes are still possible this year to prevent persistently high inflation. This statement reinforced market expectations that the Bank of England will maintain a tight policy stance, providing some support for the pound. On the other hand, the market is currently more focused on the upcoming release of the US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The market expects the overall US June CPI month-on-month rate to be around -0.1% , while the core CPI month-on-month rate is expected to increase by 0.3% . If US inflation is lower than market expectations, bets on further tightening by the Federal Reserve may cool, and the dollar may fall, providing further room for the pound to rebound; conversely, if inflation continues to be resilient, the dollar is expected to strengthen again, and the pound may come under renewed pressure against the dollar. In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will testify before Congress that day, and his statements on inflation, economic growth, and the future path of interest rates will directly affect market judgments on the dollar and pound's movements. Ahead of these important risk events, overall market trading is expected to remain cautious. From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair maintains a consolidation pattern on the daily chart, with the price still trading near key moving averages, indicating a temporary balance between bulls and bears. The MACD indicator shows a continued narrowing of the green bars, suggesting weakening bearish momentum; the RSI indicator has rebounded to around 50, reflecting a gradual improvement in market sentiment. If the exchange rate breaks through 1.3400 , it is expected to further challenge the resistance areas of 1.3450 and 1.3500 ; on the downside, key support levels to watch are 1.3320 and 1.3270 . As long as these key support levels hold, the exchange rate is expected to maintain a slightly bullish trend. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair has seen a short-term upward shift, with the MACD indicator gradually approaching the zero line, indicating continued weakening of bearish momentum; the RSI remains above 50, suggesting increased short-term buying pressure. However, the exchange rate may continue to fluctuate within a range before the release of the US CPI data. If the data falls short of market expectations, the pound/dollar pair is likely to break through 1.3400 and further test 1.3450 ; if the data is stronger than expected, it may fall back to test the support areas of 1.3320 and 1.3270 , and short-term volatility is expected to increase significantly. Editor's Summary: The current GBP/USD exchange rate is influenced by both expectations of a Bank of England interest rate hike and safe-haven demand for the dollar. The Bank of England continues to signal a tightening policy, providing some support for the pound. However, escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising US inflation expectations have kept the dollar relatively resilient. In the short term, US June CPI data, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech, and developments in the Middle East will continue to dominate market sentiment. If US inflation slows, the pound is expected to rebound further; if inflation remains strong, the dollar's advantage may widen again, and the risk of a pullback in the GBP/USD exchange rate from its highs should be carefully considered.