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[Ukraine's 2026 New Grain Harvest Progresses Steadily; Divergence in Winter Wheat and Spring Barley Yields Reflects Differences in Planting Structure] ⑴ The Ukrainian Ministry of Economy disclosed on Tuesday that, as of that day, 763,000 hectares of early grain crops had been harvested nationwide, with a total threshing volume of 3.112 million tons of various grains. Winter wheat accounted for 280,700 hectares with a yield of 1.113 million tons, while spring barley accounted for 417,700 hectares with a yield of 1.842 million tons. Peas and rapeseed contributed 156,000 tons and 149,000 tons respectively. ⑵ In terms of yield, winter wheat led with 3.96 tons per hectare, followed by spring barley at 4.41 tons, peas at 2.42 tons, and rapeseed at 1.94 tons. The overall average grain yield was 4.07 tons per hectare. The yield difference between winter wheat and spring barley reflects that winter-sown crops received more favorable rainfall and temperature conditions during their growing season. (3) Official estimates previously projected total grain production of approximately 60 million tons in 2026, roughly the same as in 2025. If weather remains stable during the subsequent harvest season, this target is achievable. However, the logistical efficiency of the Black Sea grain transport corridor and the potential threat of conflict to agricultural infrastructure remain key variables in realizing production targets. (4) From a global supply perspective, the timing of Ukraine's new grain harvest will directly impact export prices for wheat and barley in the Black Sea region. Given the current geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East driving up energy and fertilizer costs, and Trump's tariff rhetoric exacerbating trade policy uncertainty, the market's ability to absorb increased supply from Eastern Europe may be marginally weakened. It is necessary to monitor the actual yield adjustments during the peak harvest season and the rate of port inventory accumulation.