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2026-07-14 18:54:11
[Strait of Hormuz Blockade Order Sparks Further Turmoil in Crude Oil Market] ⑴ The Trump administration yesterday signaled a renewed escalation of tensions in the Middle East, announcing the resumption of the blockade of Iranian ports and plans to impose a 20% surcharge on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This move could directly push up global oil and gas transportation costs and energy prices. ⑵ As the strait handles about 30% of global seaborne oil trade, market concerns that supply chain disruptions will amplify the supply-demand imbalance during the summer peak energy season led to a widening of the risk premium in crude oil futures and a significant increase in short-term volatility of energy assets. ⑶ The ceasefire agreement reached last month between the US and Iran, once hailed as a "major achievement" by the US, has now been redefined as a "test." This policy reversal has led investors to question the geopolitical risk pricing framework, resulting in a concentrated release of risk aversion in the closing session. ⑷ On the same day, a federal judge harshly criticized the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) for allegedly manipulating the court. The internal power struggles within the judicial system increased the cumulative effect of policy uncertainty, causing risk assets to rise and then fall under this double pressure. (5) From a trading psychology perspective, the market has a history of reacting to the Hormuz theme, but this time, coupled with the uncertainty surrounding the fee collection mechanism, short covering and trend-following funds may create a short-term tug-of-war. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether the US energy sector will release strategic reserves to stabilize price expectations.
