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2026-07-14 19:02:12
[Inflation Data and Fed Officials Take Center Stage, Market Volatility Risks Rise Sharply on Tuesday] ⑴ Tuesday will see a double dose of data and speeches impacting the US financial markets. The June NFIB Small Business Optimism Index will be released at 18:00 Beijing time, but market focus will be on the June Consumer Price Index report released at 20:30. ⑵ The Treasury Department will announce the issuance sizes of 4-week, 8-week, and 17-week Treasury bonds at 23:00 Beijing time, estimated at $100 billion, $95 billion, and $72 billion respectively. Following this, $95 billion in 6-week Treasury bills will be auctioned at 23:30, raising concerns about short-term supply pressure. ⑶ Regarding inflation data, influenced by the temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East during the statistical period, the market expects overall CPI to decline by 0.1% month-on-month, while core CPI is expected to rise by 0.2% month-on-month, unchanged from the previous month. However, the lagged effects of supply chain bottlenecks may limit the decline. (4) Before the escalation of the situation in Iran, producer price increases had already consistently outpaced consumer price increases, putting pressure on profit margins in sectors such as technology. This cost transmission may keep core inflation sticky in June, and high service prices are also a key variable constraining an overall decline. (5) Speeches by Federal Reserve officials will be held throughout the day: Chairman Warsh will attend a House hearing at 22:00 Beijing time; Governors Barr and Cook, and Vice Chairman Bowman will successively express their views on artificial intelligence and financial inclusion; Chicago Fed President Goolsby will participate in a Q&A session in the early morning. The mixed stances of hawks and doves may exacerbate the market's repricing of the policy path.
