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2026-07-14 19:18:11
[Not Just Focusing on Oil Prices, Natural Gas Inventory Concerns Cause Greater Market Anxiety] ⑴ Since the outbreak of the conflict with Iran, oil prices have consistently been the core benchmark for the market to measure the economic impact of the conflict. Rising prices directly push up inflation expectations and strengthen central bank interest rate hikes. This week, the money market's pricing of policy tightening has risen in tandem with oil prices. ⑵ However, Jordan Rochester, head of EMEA fixed income strategy at Mizuho Securities, points out that the greater concern lies in natural gas. Gas storage injection rates remain below normal levels during the summer, and importers may be forced to engage in non-economical purchases during the off-season to avoid hefty fines. ⑶ If natural gas prices break through the highs since the start of this conflict, their impact on inflation will far exceed the initial impact of crude oil, as electricity prices and fertilizer costs will rise in tandem, forming a broader price transmission chain. ⑷ The Strait of Hormuz is both a major oil transport route and a key node for liquefied natural gas (LNG) passage. Dutch TTF benchmark natural gas futures prices climbed to their highest level since April on Tuesday, and market sensitivity to supply disruptions continues to rise. (5) Rabobank’s energy strategy team warned that the already tight global liquefied natural gas supply and demand balance is compounded by the strait disturbances and weak Qatari exports. If Europe cannot increase imports through alternative transportation arrangements, its winter inventory buffer will be extremely limited.
