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2026-07-14 19:24:11
[US Soybeans and Corn Prices Rise and Fall Amid Weather and Black Sea Shipping Risks] ⑴ Chicago soybean and corn futures fell on Tuesday, pressured by an improved crop condition rating in the USDA's weekly report. Corn's condition rating was 68%, up from 67% the previous week, and soybeans' was 65%, also up from 64%. Short-term supply expectations weighed on prices. ⑵ However, the threat of hot and dry weather persists. The western half of the US Midwest Corn Belt is expected to remain hot and dry this week and next. The USDA has already given a high average yield estimate of 183 bushels per acre; if the weather worsens, actual yields could be revised downwards. ⑶ Geopolitically, shipping restrictions in the Sea of Azov in the Black Sea are also affecting the market. Ukraine's attacks on tankers and merchant ships in the region have raised export concerns. Commerzbank pointed out that if the restrictions continue for a long time, there could be a significant wheat supply gap. ⑷ About a quarter of Russia's grain exports pass through the Sea of Azov. The port restrictions that took effect last Friday have already substantially disrupted trade flows. Coupled with the spillover effects of tensions in the Middle East, risk premiums in the grain market remain high. (5) From a trading perspective, US soybeans and corn just hit new monthly highs on Monday, and the pullback on Tuesday reflected more short-term profit-taking after the improvement in the good-to-excellent rating. However, neither the weather nor shipping variables showed a trend reversal. In the future, attention should still be paid to the duration of the high temperatures and the progress of the Black Sea Channel restoration.
