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[Geopolitical tensions ignite bullish sentiment in crude oil, Hormuz standoff reshapes cost logic per barrel] ⑴ The sudden escalation of the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz has propelled international oil prices sharply higher. Brent crude broke through the key $87 per barrel barrier again after a month, with WTI crude following suit. Both benchmark contracts recorded gains of nearly 10% in the previous trading day, and bullish sentiment quickly accumulated. ⑵ Trump's tariff remarks, coupled with the US's renewed naval blockade of Iranian ships entering and leaving ports, directly shattered previous optimistic expectations about the restoration of normal shipping routes. Analysts pointed out that the impact of resuming the blockade on market psychology and actual supply far exceeds the impact of suspending sanctions waivers, and the previously reached memorandum of understanding has been effectively nullified. ⑶ The US also announced that it would maintain the Strait's openness, but proposed a security exchange plan involving a security fee of about 20% on transit cargo. Analysts calculated that, based on standard very large crude carriers (VLCCs) and current oil prices, the additional cost per ship would reach tens of millions of dollars, equivalent to an increase of nearly $16 per barrel, far exceeding the passage fee rate proposed by Iran, and the supply cost structure is facing a reassessment. (4) Since Iran opened fire on merchant ships last week, the exchange of fire has continued for several days, marking the most serious escalation of the conflict since the ceasefire in mid-June. Shipping activity in the Persian Gulf has slowed significantly, with confirmed transit cargo frequency plummeting from an average of thirty times per day at the beginning of the month to eleven times recently, indicating a significant increase in obstacles to the flow of goods. (5) However, the crude oil market has not yet fully priced in a long-term supply shock. Traders tend to bet that factors such as global inventory buffers, weak demand in some regions, alternative export routes, and potential demand disruptions are sufficient to offset the risk of short-term disruptions. However, if the standoff continues to escalate, the supply and demand balance may face a new round of sharp corrections.