Live Updates > Live Update Details
2026-07-14 21:30:11
[Oversold Signals Emerge After Five Consecutive Days of Decline in Gas Prices; Freeport Maintenance Triggers Sentiment; Forward Spreads Compress to Historical Lows] ⑴ US natural gas futures continued their decline on Tuesday, with the most active contract falling about 1% to around $2.87, hitting its lowest level since mid-May, marking its fifth consecutive day of losses. ⑵ Technical indicators show that the near-month contract has been in oversold territory for two consecutive days, the first time since April, suggesting that bearish momentum may be facing a temporary exhaustion, increasing the probability of a short-term rebound. ⑶ The core factors suppressing prices are twofold: a moderate increase in domestic production and a temporary contraction in export demand for feedstock gas due to a six-week maintenance shutdown of the Freeport LNG Texas plant starting July 10. ⑷ On the forward curve, the spread between the March and April 2027 contracts narrowed to a record low of approximately 18 cents. This contract is historically considered a sensitive indicator of winter supply and demand dynamics, and the narrow spread reflects market expectations of ample future supply. (5) Supply-side data shows that the average daily production in the 48 contiguous U.S. states so far in July is approximately 110.2 billion cubic feet, a slight increase from June, but still below the monthly peak reached in December last year. (6) On the demand side, weather models predict that temperatures will remain higher than average in most parts of the country until the end of July, and cooling loads will support gas demand for power generation. Analysts estimate that total domestic demand will remain at a robust level of approximately 110.4 billion cubic feet this week and next. (7) Regarding inventories, market forecasts indicate that natural gas inventories as of the week ending July 10 were about 6.6% higher than the five-year average. The ample storage environment continues to put downward pressure on near-month prices, and Thursday evening's inventory report will be a key catalyst for short-term price direction.
