The Strait of Hormuz has reignited tensions. On Tuesday (July 14), the US officially reinstated its naval blockade against Iran, simultaneously launching a seven-hour military strike that severely damaged missiles and naval facilities. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard retaliated immediately against US bases. Global energy markets experienced significant volatility, with Brent crude briefly surpassing $87, a nearly 10% increase over two days. Trump's proposed 20% tariff on the Strait was completely overturned within 24 hours, replaced by Gulf investment in the US. With the collapse of the temporary agreement and Trump's threat to attack Iranian power plant bridges, the US-Iran standoff is pushing the Middle East to the brink of full-blown war.

I. Reopening of Lockdown: US Military Launches 7-Hour Strike and Deploys Over 20 Warships to the Middle East

The U.S. military officially reinstated its maritime blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas at 4:00 PM Eastern Time on July 14 (4:00 AM Beijing Time on July 15). This is the second blockade since the initial blockade from April 13 to June 18. Previously, the U.S. and Iran signed a 60-day interim agreement in mid-June, stipulating free passage through the Strait for 60 days; however, negotiations stalled as tensions escalated. An hour before the blockade was reinstated, U.S. Central Command announced a new round of military strikes against Iran, beginning at 3:00 PM Eastern Time on July 14. Central Command stated that the operation would last approximately seven hours, targeting Iranian "coastal defense systems, missile and drone bases, and maritime military installations." The strike area covered Bushehr, Chabahar, Jask, Konarak, Abu Musa Island, and Bandar Abbas. Iran swiftly retaliated. According to Iran's Mehr News Agency, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched strikes against multiple U.S. weapons depots, ships, and MQ-9 drone deployment platforms. Iranian state television reported early on the 15th that Iranian armed forces launched a retaliatory drone attack on US military bases in Jordan. Explosions were heard in Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas, Hungam Island in southern Iran, and Ahvaz in western Iran. Air defense systems around the Bushehr nuclear power plant were activated. The US military presence in the Middle East has reached a considerable scale. Currently, there are at least 19 US warships in the Arabian Sea, including two aircraft carriers and an amphibious assault ship carrying more than 1,000 Marines. Central Command stated that "hundreds of military aircraft are operating throughout the Middle East."

II. Sharp Fluctuations in the Energy Market: Oil Prices Rise Nearly 10% in Two Days

The Strait of Hormuz carries approximately one-fifth of the world's seaborne crude oil trade, with about 20 million barrels of oil passing through daily during peacetime. Since the outbreak of the Iraq War on February 28th, this strategic waterway was temporarily halted, and Brent crude oil prices surged to $114 per barrel. The resumption of the blockade quickly ignited the energy market. On July 13th, international oil prices rose more than 9%, marking the largest single-day increase since May 2020; Brent crude futures rose 9.59%, settling at $83.30 per barrel; US crude futures rose 9.42%, settling at $78.14 per barrel. The upward trend continued on July 14th. Light sweet crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose as much as 3.9%, reaching over $81 per barrel, before closing at $79.34 per barrel; Brent crude futures in London rose more than 5% intraday, reaching over $87 per barrel, before closing at $85.30 per barrel. Brent crude oil has risen more than $15 per barrel from its early July lows. On Wednesday (July 15) in Asian trading, international oil prices continued their upward trend. US crude oil was trading at $80.29 per barrel, up about 1.2%, while Brent crude oil was trading at $85.96 per barrel, up about 0.75%. Senior oil industry economists believe the fundamental reason for this round of oil price increases is the failure of the US and Iran to reach an agreement, with significant differences between the two sides on several key issues. A senior researcher pointed out that a deeper reason is that the previous decline in oil prices was not due to a genuine dissipation of geopolitical risks, but rather the market temporarily absorbing the supply shock through demand disruption and inventory release. In the current low-inventory environment, price elasticity is significantly amplified—OECD inventories have fallen to their lowest level since 2003, US inventories to their lowest level since 2014, and strategic reserves to their lowest level in nearly 40 years. Analysts predict that if the situation does not ease, oil prices could be pushed up to $90 per barrel. On the demand side, OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 780,000 barrels per day, while the International Energy Agency expects global oil consumption to decline by 1 million barrels per day this year due to the impact of war.

III. The toll plan was changed frequently: the 20% "toll" was overturned in a single day.

On July 13, US President Trump announced on social media that the US would reinstate a naval blockade against Iran and declared itself the "Guardian of the Strait of Hormuz," imposing a 20% fee on all cargo transported through the strait. According to estimates, a fully loaded supertanker would have to pay approximately $30 million. This plan quickly triggered a strong backlash from the international community. A spokesperson for the International Maritime Organization stated that imposing fees on the Strait of Hormuz "has no legal basis." The CEO of Nordic American Tankers Ltd. pointed out that the move was "impractical" and warned that the fees would backfire on all countries, including the US, through inflation. Sky News commented that this was tantamount to tacitly acknowledging the "legitimacy" of charging ships passing through the strait. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi ridiculed Trump's demand of "20% as too high," and that Iran's fee was more "fair." US Secretary of State Rubio and Defense Secretary Hergsays had previously stated that charging ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz was "unacceptable." A dramatic turn of events occurred the following day. On July 14, Trump announced on social media that, following talks with Middle Eastern leaders, he had decided to replace the 20% tariff plan with trade and investment agreements between the Gulf states and the United States. Trump stated that these investments would be "enormous in scale," and that "factories, facilities, and equipment will flood into the United States on an unprecedented scale, creating millions of high-paying jobs." He also said, "I don't think anyone should charge a tariff on the Strait." However, Trump emphasized that the United States would continue its "comprehensive blockade" of Iran, but "only against ships traveling to and from Iranian ports or carrying goods related to Iran."

IV. The collapse of the interim agreement and the looming risk of all-out war

The 60-day provisional agreement signed in mid-June has become defunct. According to the agreement, the US and Iran were supposed to negotiate a final agreement on issues such as Iran's nuclear program during this period. Iranian First Vice President Aref stated, "The US breaking its promises was expected. The US tearing up recently signed documents shows that its words are unreliable." In an interview with Fox News on the evening of July 14, Trump issued a stern warning: unless Iran returns to the negotiating table, the US military will strike its bridges and power plants next week. "We're going to give them a big blow tomorrow night and the day after, and by next week, things will be very bad for them," Trump said. He also indicated that he did not rule out the possibility of sending ground troops to Iran. Meanwhile, regional mediators are still working to bring the US and Iran back to the negotiating table. However, the military standoff between the two sides over control of the Strait of Hormuz continues to escalate, and the risk of a full-scale war is looming.

[Editor's Summary]

The Strait of Hormuz has been blocked again, threatening a new round of supply shocks to the global energy market. Brent crude oil briefly broke through $87 per barrel, rising more than $15 from its early July lows, reflecting deep market concerns about a prolonged disruption to strait traffic. The Trump administration's inconsistent policies on tolls—from a 20% toll to a complete overturn within a day—expose a lack of consistency in its policy-making, adding further uncertainty to the global energy market's pricing mechanism. More concerning is the deployment of over 20 US warships and hundreds of military aircraft in the Middle East, and Trump's threats to strike Iranian bridges and power plants, even including ground troops, indicating a potential for further escalation of the conflict. With global crude oil inventories at historically low levels, any supply disruption could be amplified into dramatic price fluctuations. Whether the US and Iran can return to the negotiating table will determine the future trajectory of this global energy artery and whether the global economy can avoid a new round of inflationary shocks.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1: Why did the US reinstate the naval blockade against Iran at this time? The immediate trigger was Iran's recent attacks on ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. On July 6, two merchant ships were attacked by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the southern shipping lane; the UAE Ministry of Defense reported that Iran fired missiles at two UAE oil tankers, resulting in one death and eight injuries. The US used this as a pretext to launch several consecutive nights of attacks on Iran and officially reinstated the blockade on July 14. A deeper reason is that the 60-day interim agreement signed in mid-June has reached a stalemate, with both sides failing to reach a final agreement on issues such as Iran's nuclear program. Q2: How important is the Strait of Hormuz to the global energy market? The Strait of Hormuz is the only waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the outside world. During peacetime, approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil pass through daily, accounting for about a quarter of global seaborne oil trade and one-fifth of global crude oil supply. About 30% of global LPG exports and 20% of LNG trade also pass through this strait. Blockage of this strait would directly affect the global energy supply structure, which is why tensions in the strait always trigger sharp fluctuations in oil prices. Q3: Why was Trump's proposed 20% strait fee overturned within a day? The plan faced almost unanimous opposition from the international community. The International Maritime Organization stated that it had "no legal basis"; the shipping industry warned that it would push up global inflation; and both the US Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense had previously stated that the fee was "unacceptable." Under immense pressure, Trump turned to "Gulf countries investing in the US" as an alternative. This policy reversal also reflects the plan's lack of feasibility on legal, economic, and diplomatic levels. Q4: How long will the impact of the renewed blockade on oil prices last? This depends on the duration and escalation of the conflict. Current global crude oil inventories are at historically low levels—OECD inventories are the lowest since 2003, and US strategic reserves are the lowest in nearly 40 years. Analysts warn that once supply is disrupted again, the market will lose its buffer, and price elasticity will be significantly amplified. If the situation does not ease, oil prices could be pushed up to $90/barrel, or even above $100. If the conflict is prolonged, upward pressure on oil prices will persist. Q5: Is it possible for the US and Iran to return to the negotiating table? It is possible, but the challenges are enormous. Regional mediators are still working to get both sides back to negotiations, but Trump has made it clear that "unless Iran returns to the negotiating table, the US military will strike its bridges and power plants next week." Iran, in turn, accuses the US of "tearing up recently signed documents." The two sides have serious differences on core issues such as nuclear issues and control of the Strait of Hormuz, making the prospect of reaching an agreement in the short term bleak. At 11:02 Beijing time, Brent crude oil was trading at $85.89 per barrel.