The US military ended its five-day ceasefire on Wednesday (July 29) – Thursday morning Beijing time – launching a new round of large-scale airstrikes against Iranian territory, heavily targeting Qeshm and Kish islands. The Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed, threatening to cut off global energy arteries. Market panic spread. The conflict has rapidly spilled over from the US-Iran confrontation to multiple fronts in Iraq, Yemen, the Red Sea, and Jordan, bringing the possibility of a full-blown war in the Middle East to the brink. Brent crude oil futures for September delivery rose more than 8% to $91 on Wednesday, while the more active October futures reached a high of $88.59 per barrel, closing near $88.30 per barrel. Although Brent crude slightly retreated to around $87 per barrel in Asian trading on Thursday (July 30), analysts warned that if the conflict escalates further, oil prices could surge to $120 to $150 in extreme cases.

The US military ended its five-day ceasefire and launched a new round of airstrikes targeting Iranian territory.

U.S. Central Command announced at 8 p.m. Eastern Time on July 29 (3:30 a.m. Iranian Time on July 30, 8:00 a.m. Beijing Time on July 30) that the U.S. military had officially launched a new round of airstrikes against Iran, ending the brief ceasefire that had lasted since July 24. The strikes targeted dozens of military targets of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps deployed within Iran, aiming to weaken its missile and drone combat capabilities. The Central Command statement said the airstrikes were a "strong response" to Iran's attempted attack on U.S. forces in the Middle East the previous day. Iranian sources indicated that explosions were heard in several locations in the south. According to the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) on July 30, U.S. forces attacked parts of Hormozgan province, including Qeshm Island and Kish Island, in the early hours of the day. Hormozgan provincial officials stated that a location near Qeshm Island was attacked by U.S. forces, and the consequences are currently being assessed. Two loud explosions were heard on Kish Island in the early hours of the day; local authorities stated that the attacks did not cause damage to urban facilities or residential areas, and that transportation and airport operations on the island were unaffected. In addition, parts of Fars province and Abadan in southwestern Iran were also attacked by the US military.

Why the ceasefire broke down: From a memorandum of understanding to full-blown confrontation

The root of this military escalation can be traced back to the memorandum of understanding signed by the US and Iran in mid-June to suspend the war. This agreement brought a brief period of calm to the Middle East, but it was short-lived. Middle East Institute expert Pollack points out that the memorandum did not actually resolve any differences; there was a fundamental misunderstanding between the two sides regarding the Strait of Hormuz—the US believed the agreement ensured unimpeded oil exports, while Iran believed it had gained control of the waterway. In early July, Iran resumed threatening shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and intercepting ships. On July 8, the US launched its first attack on Iranian territory since the signing of the memorandum, and Trump announced the ceasefire was no longer valid on the same day. For nearly two weeks afterward, the US launched daily strikes against Iran at varying levels. In response, Tehran began attacking US facilities in Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and Oman. A brief ceasefire was reached on July 24, but this ceasefire lasted only five days. Trump Strikes Hard: "It's Our Turn to Hit Them" US President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on the afternoon of July 29 that he would retaliate against Iran for its attacks on US troops in the Middle East, threatening to "strike hard" at Iran "because it's our turn to hit them." In an interview with Fox News, Trump further stated that the US would "strike hard" at Iran, that Iran would be "severely hit," and did not rule out the possibility of further strikes against Iranian proxies in the region. In addition, Trump plans to add provisions to relevant legislation authorizing the US to impose tariffs on Iran. The previous day, the US Central Command announced that Iran launched a missile attack on US troops in the Middle East on July 28 , and that the US military intercepted all incoming missiles. A spokesperson for the Jordanian Armed Forces issued a statement on the same day, stating that Jordanian air defense forces intercepted and shot down all five missiles flying from Iran toward Jordanian territory.

The maritime blockade continues to escalate, hindering passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

While launching airstrikes, the US military continued to strictly enforce its naval blockade against Iran. As of July 29, the US military had forced 20 merchant ships to change course, rendered two ships incapable of navigation, and conducted boarding inspections on two other vessels. Iran responded in kind. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy announced on July 12 that the Strait of Hormuz was closed immediately, prohibiting any vessels from passing through. The statement said that due to the insecurity caused by illegal interference by foreign powers, no vessels were allowed to pass through until the US ended its intervention in the region. Iran's Fars News Agency reported on July 19, citing sources, that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz had dropped to zero. The Revolutionary Guard also issued a statement saying that as long as US aggression in the region continued, the Strait of Hormuz would remain "closed," and oil, natural gas, and fertilizers would not be exported from the region.

The conflict has spread to multiple locations, and multiple fronts in the Middle East are now engulfed in flames.

Over the past month, the conflict has escalated from a bilateral confrontation between the US and Iran into a multi-front war spanning the entire Middle East: On the Iraqi front: On July 29, US and Saudi Arabian forces launched a joint airstrike on Iraq's Diyala province, targeting multiple bases of the Iranian-backed Shiite militia group Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), resulting in at least 20 deaths and 32 injuries. This operation was a response to "more than 30 drone attacks directed by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the past 72 hours." The deputy governor of Iran's Central Province stated that the airstrikes killed four members of the IRGC. On the Yemen-Red Sea front: On July 20, the Houthi rebels in Yemen announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia. On July 26, the Houthis claimed to have attacked three Saudi oil tankers in the past 48 hours. Lebanon's Mayadin TV reported that a total of 16 Saudi vessels were denied passage and forced to turn back in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Houthis also launched attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu. On the Jordanian front: On July 29, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) used missiles to strike a U.S. air base and command center in Jordan. This followed attacks on King Faisal and Prince Hassan air bases in Jordan on July 22. On the Gulf front: On July 20, Iran's IRGC announced attacks on U.S. targets in Bahrain and Kuwait, including a drone maintenance hangar at Sakhir Air Base in Bahrain and Arifjan Air Base in Kuwait. Straul, a researcher at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, stated that Iran's aggression is prompting Gulf allies such as Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia to take preemptive military action against Tehran, and regional military cooperation continues to strengthen.

Air defense weapons are being consumed at an alarming rate, and the United States is facing stockpiling pressure.

According to estimates by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the United States has used up more than 1,500 Patriot missiles and 200 THAAD interceptors in its confrontation with Iran. Specific data shows that between February 27 and July 27, the US used between 1,503 and 1,571 Patriot missiles and between 174 and 218 THAAD interceptors. On February 27, the Patriot missile stockpile was 2,330 missiles, and the THAAD stockpile was 452; by July 27, the numbers in their arsenals had decreased to between 759 and 827 missiles and between 234 and 278 missiles, respectively. CSIS analysts warn that the depletion of these stockpiles could force the US and its allies to take on greater risks when intercepting missiles, as there are currently no complete alternatives to the Patriot and THAAD systems to counter the ballistic missile threat.

Editor's Summary

On July 29, the US military ended its five-day ceasefire and launched a new round of large-scale airstrikes against Iran, targeting multiple locations in southern Iran, including Qeshm Island and Kish Island. The immediate trigger for this military escalation was Iran's missile attack on US forces in the Middle East on July 28, but its deeper root lies in the failure of the June US-Iran memorandum of understanding to resolve the core dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has rapidly spilled over from bilateral confrontation between the US and Iran to multiple fronts, including Iraq, Yemen, the Red Sea, and Jordan. Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers further threaten global energy transport routes. Meanwhile, the US has depleted its air defense missile stockpile during months of military operations, and the Patriot and THAAD systems face shortage risks, potentially constraining its ability to sustain further conflict. The risk of a full-scale war in the Middle East is rapidly accumulating, and the situation remains highly uncertain. DBS Bank predicts that Brent crude oil prices will fluctuate wildly between $80 and $100 in the short term due to the on-and-off geopolitical negotiations. If the conflict escalates further, some organizations warn that in extreme circumstances, oil prices could surge to $120 to $150.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: How does this US airstrike differ from previous military operations? A: This airstrike marks the first large-scale US military operation since the suspension of strikes against Iran on July 24. Previously, the US had conducted continuous airstrikes against Iran for 13 days, with the ceasefire lasting only five days. The strike covered multiple areas in Iran's Hormozgan province, including Qeshm Island and Kish Island, as well as Fars province and Abadan province, targeting dozens of military facilities of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The scale and intensity of the strikes represent an escalation compared to previous attacks. Q: Why did Iran attack US forces in the Middle East on July 28? A: This Iranian attack was a direct response to the US resumption of strikes on July 8. The latest escalation in the US-Iran conflict began on July 8 with the US launching its first attack on Iranian territory since the signing of the memorandum of understanding. Subsequently, Iran launched a series of retaliatory attacks on US facilities in Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and Oman. The missile attack on July 28 was the latest link in this retaliatory cycle, with Iran attempting to demonstrate its retaliatory capabilities by striking US bases in Jordan. Q: What is the current status of the Strait of Hormuz? What impact does this have on the global energy market? A: The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on July 12, prohibiting any vessels from passing through. Iran's Fars News Agency reported on July 19 that traffic in the strait had dropped to zero. Meanwhile, the US military reinstated its naval blockade on July 14, forcing 20 merchant ships to divert routes by July 29. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important oil shipping routes, and its de facto shutdown poses a serious threat to global energy supplies. Furthermore, the Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea have further exacerbated the risks of passage through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, creating a situation where two major Middle Eastern energy routes are simultaneously blocked. Q: What is the status of US military resource consumption in the conflict? A: According to estimates by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, between February 27 and July 27, the US has consumed more than 1,500 Patriot missiles and approximately 200 THAAD interceptor missiles. Patriot missile stocks have decreased from 2,330 to approximately 800, and THAAD stocks from 452 to approximately 250. Analysts warn that depletion of these stocks could force the US to take on greater risks in subsequent interceptions, and there is currently no complete alternative to the Patriot and THAAD systems. This ammunition shortage could also affect US commitments to military aid in other theaters of war, such as Ukraine. Q: What is the likely next step in the Middle East situation? A: Analysts point out that there is currently no mutual trust between the US and Iran, with both sides believing they have the upper hand, while Israel may seize the opportunity to strike. In the short term, the alternation between fighting and negotiating will continue, but the risks of escalation and spillover should not be underestimated. The conflict has evolved from a bilateral confrontation between the US and Iran to multiple fronts covering the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, Iraq, Yemen, Jordan, and Israel. If the conflict escalates further, the US may find itself in a two-front war against Iran and the Houthis, while Israel's potential intervention could be the biggest uncertainty factor triggering a full-scale war. At 11:12 Beijing time, Brent crude oil futures for October were trading at $86.92 per barrel.