Gold and Silver Price Outlook: Precious metals are in focus during the non-farm payroll week; gold tests key breakout level.
2026-08-05 18:34:52
Declining job openings data has led the market to believe that hiring demand will also weaken. This week, investors will focus on Wednesday's ADP employment report, Thursday's initial jobless claims data, and Friday's official non-farm payrolls report to assess the current state of the labor market and how the data will affect the Federal Reserve's September monetary policy. The market expects July's non-farm payrolls to increase by 95,000, lower than the previous figure of 121,000. The market expects the unemployment rate to rise to 4.4% in July. If non-farm payrolls increase is lower than expected, it will strengthen the possibility of the Federal Reserve shifting to a more accommodative policy; if the employment data is stronger than expected, it will raise market expectations for further interest rate hikes. The easing of US-Iran relations under the mediation of the US and Qatar has reduced geopolitical risks, and precious metals continue to rise. This situation also affects oil prices; coupled with expectations of declining inflation, the market is betting that the probability of a Fed rate hike in September has fallen to 59%, down from an average of 67% previously. A weaker dollar, declining inflation, and market expectations that the Fed's policy will be data-dependent are all positive factors for gold. From a medium-term fundamental perspective, industrial demand driven by photovoltaics, AI infrastructure, high-end electronic devices, and power grid expansion provides strong support for silver. Central banks worldwide continue to diversify their gold reserves, and coupled with uncertainties surrounding employment data, these structural demands will continue to support the overall outlook for precious metals, even amidst a volatile monetary policy outlook. Technical Analysis: Breakout from a double top indicates renewed bullish momentum.
Gold closed above the $4115 double top pattern, breaking through the double top and the upper edge of the previous high-volume trading zone, while also breaking the downtrend line formed from the July high. The breakout of the high-volume resistance zone signifies that gold bulls have regained control of the market. Gold rallied and held above the 20-period moving average ($4064), testing the 50-period moving average ($4159), both of which previously acted as resistance. Upside targets are $4159 and $44200. If the bulls take a brief breather, but the overall trend remains unchanged, the first support level is $4115, with a deeper support at $4079. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 55, maintaining upward momentum. As long as gold prices remain above $4115, the double top breakout structure remains valid, and the market is expected to continue to reach new all-time highs. Technical Analysis: A new round of bullish market confirmed.
Silver broke out of a symmetrical triangle pattern and the previous high of $61, with the price breaking through the high point of the high-volume trading zone, confirming a new round of bullish momentum. Since mid-August, silver had been trading within a range. Currently, the price is trading above the 20-period moving average ($58.221) and the 50-period moving average ($62.597), further consolidating the bullish technical structure. The upside resistance levels are $62.60 and $63.24. If the price breaks down, the first support level is the breakout point at $61; if there is a further significant pullback, $60.09 will provide support.- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.