The USD/JPY pair continued its strong performance at the start of the week, rebounding to around 158.20 after a slight pullback. The yen has been under pressure recently, mainly due to uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan's policy path, while the dollar has been supported by safe-haven inflows and a market reassessment of the US interest rate outlook. The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) summary of its July 30-31 monetary policy meeting revealed significant internal disagreement within the board regarding future interest rate policy. Some officials favored maintaining the current interest rate level to observe the lagged effects of previous rate hikes on economic activity and inflation; however, others believed that with increasing risks to rising prices, the BOJ needed to maintain or even accelerate the pace of policy tightening. BOJ officials also noted that tensions in the Middle East could put pressure on economic activity, but growing demand related to artificial intelligence and a moderate domestic economic recovery provided some support. This widening policy divergence within the BOJ reduced market expectations for a rapid short-term appreciation of the yen. On the economic data front, Japan's current account surplus fell to 923 billion yen in June, significantly lower than the 1.2818 trillion yen in the same period last year and also below market expectations of 1.512 trillion yen. While strong exports of AI-related electronic products supported external demand, increased crude oil imports boosted overall imports, weakening the improvement in the current account. As for the US dollar, safe-haven demand continued to provide support. The market remains focused on the progress of the Strait of Hormuz management issue between the US and Iran. While there are signs of negotiations regarding regional risks, market concerns about energy supply and security have not been completely dispelled. As the US dollar retains its safe-haven appeal during risk events, capital inflows have helped the dollar index remain resilient and pushed USD/JPY to higher levels. Meanwhile, expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy are a significant factor influencing the dollar's trajectory. TD Securities stated that while the possibility of another Fed rate hike remains, upcoming US inflation data could be a key factor in changing interest rate expectations. The firm predicts that the US core CPI and overall CPI monthly rates may record approximately 0.20% and 0.15%, respectively. If inflation continues to ease, the market may further reduce its expectations for rate hikes, pushing down US Treasury yields. Recent US interest rate movements have been primarily influenced by expectations of Fed policy. If the market reduces its bets on further tightening, US yields may decline, thus limiting the dollar's upside potential. However, Federal Reserve official Musalamu recently signaled a hawkish stance, emphasizing that inflation risks have not been completely eliminated and believing that core inflation may be in the 2.5% to 3% range, while supporting more cautious policy measures if necessary. The market believes the Fed is still maintaining a data-dependent approach. Although inflation is gradually easing, if rising energy prices cause inflation expectations to rise again, the Fed may continue to maintain a tight policy stance. The short-term trend of USD/JPY still depends on US inflation data, policy signals from the Bank of Japan, and changes in global risk aversion. From a daily chart perspective, USD/JPY is currently maintaining a high-level consolidation with a slightly bullish bias, with the price trading above the major moving average system, indicating that the bulls still hold the initiative in the short term. Current resistance is seen in the 159.00 to 160.00 area; a break above this area could lead to a further test of the 162.00 level. Support is seen at 157.00 and 155.50. On the daily chart, although upward momentum has slowed somewhat, the overall trend remains bullish, and the market awaits new fundamental catalysts. From a 4-hour chart perspective, USD/JPY has recently formed a consolidation pattern around 158. Short-term indicators suggest that upward momentum has weakened, but no clear reversal signal has yet appeared. If the price holds above the 157.00 area, it may retest the 159.00-160.00 resistance level in the short term; if it breaks below 157.00, it may retrace to around 155.50 to find support. Future price movements will focus on US CPI data, changes in the US dollar index, and subsequent policy statements from the Bank of Japan. Editor's Summary: The USD/JPY pair is currently influenced by a combination of factors, including differences in monetary policy between Japan and the US, safe-haven demand, and changes in economic data. Disagreements within the Bank of Japan regarding the pace of interest rate hikes have limited the yen's upward momentum in the short term, while the US dollar is supported by risk sentiment and hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve. In the short term, USD/JPY is likely to maintain a high-level consolidation pattern, with the market awaiting US inflation data to confirm the dollar's next direction. If US inflation continues to cool, a decline in US Treasury yields may limit the dollar's rise; however, if risk events escalate or the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, USD/JPY still has room for further gains.