As Washington threatened an indefinite maritime blockade of Iran, fears of disrupted energy supplies in the Middle East intensified, triggering a surge in safe-haven buying and causing Brent crude to rebound before Friday's close. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its demand forecast, coupled with the largest increase in US crude oil inventories in three and a half years, putting pressure on bullish sentiment. With bulls and bears locked in a tug-of-war, oil prices are no longer driven by a single factor. Having just weathered the weekend's news, the interplay of geopolitics and fundamentals continued into Monday afternoon trading, and oil prices remained highly sensitive to various news events. Geopolitical risks have once again become the core factor driving oil prices. Last Thursday, concerns about weakening demand and a sharp rise in US crude oil inventories led to a decline in oil prices. On Friday, Brent and WTI crude oil both rebounded due to the US threat of an indefinite maritime blockade of Iran, raising concerns about further disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies. Throughout the weekend, various related news continued to unfold, and on Monday's opening, funds continued to rapidly shift between bullish and bearish positions based on geopolitical news, exacerbating intraday volatility in crude oil prices. The latest price movements fully reflect the current contradictory situation in the oil market. On the one hand, physical supply remains noticeably tight; on the other hand, demand expectations and inventory data effectively offset each other, limiting the upside potential of oil prices. This also means that even if geopolitical conflicts provide upward momentum, oil prices are unlikely to experience a sustained, one-sided surge. The Strait of Hormuz remains a key variable influencing oil prices. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that oil exports through this route have recovered to nearly 9 million barrels per day; including pipeline traffic, total oil exports from the Gulf region are approximately 15 million barrels per day. However, the figures calculated by independent third-party institutions are significantly lower than the official figures, indicating considerable uncertainty regarding the actual scale of crude oil circulation in the international market. The significant discrepancy between official statistics and third-party estimates makes it difficult for the market to reach a unified judgment on the true level of crude oil supply. Following the weekend's developments, this uncertainty has directly impacted Monday's trading. The struggle between the US and Iran for control of the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in shipping traffic volume falling below the August average; repeated attacks on merchant ships have exacerbated market concerns about regional energy transport security. Before the conflict, approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas were transported through the Strait of Hormuz; further deterioration of the situation will significantly impact international oil prices. Unlike weekend market closures, the current market is in continuous trading, and sudden conflict news will be immediately reflected on the charts, amplifying intraday price fluctuations. However, the bullish logic driven by geopolitics is facing challenges from weakening fundamentals. The International Energy Agency predicts that global oil demand will contract by 1.6 million barrels per day this year; OPEC has also lowered its demand growth forecast, reducing the growth rate to 580,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, US crude oil inventories recorded their largest weekly increase in over three and a half years. The significant accumulation of inventories directly reflects the current weakness in spot consumption in the crude oil market. For traders, the market has entered a state of high volatility. Oil prices no longer solely reflect the actual scale of crude oil supply losses, but also the duration of supply disruptions and expectations of further escalation. The trading logic has shifted from simple supply and demand balance to pricing in the probability of geopolitical events, significantly increasing the difficulty of analysis. Having just passed through a weekend of concentrated news risks, market risks did not dissipate during Monday's trading. If there are signs of renewed negotiations between the US and Iran, the geopolitical risk premium will quickly subside, and crude oil prices will subsequently fall, especially given the weak demand outlook and persistently high US inventories. Conversely, if shipping attacks continue, sanctions are escalated, and conflicts around the Hormuz escalate, traders will price in supply shocks for a longer period, potentially leading to a sharp jump in oil prices. Both scenarios have the potential to occur, and the market has not reached a consensus on a consistent direction. The current oil market is deeply entangled in a tug-of-war between tightening physical supply and weakening demand expectations. Monday afternoon's trading clearly demonstrated that the impact of geopolitical events may still outweigh traditional supply and demand indicators, and Brent and WTI crude oil will remain highly sensitive to various news events. Investors will need to continue monitoring shipping data from the Taiwan Strait, diplomatic statements from the US and Iran, and macroeconomic data from Europe and the US to comprehensively assess the future direction of oil prices.