Gold and silver prices fell in early trading on Tuesday (August 18). Despite a cooling of market expectations for a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve, rising risk premiums from oil prices and higher long-term US Treasury yields weighed on precious metals. Spot gold traded around $4,390.40 per ounce, down 0.58% on the day; spot silver was at $64.890, down 1.17% on the day. The current market is characterized by a complex interplay of bullish and bearish forces: on the one hand, weakening US economic data, and on the other hand, renewed inflationary pressures from the energy sector. Last week's release of retail sales, core CPI, PPI, and consumer confidence data lowered the market's priced-in probability of a September Fed rate hike to the 30%-35% range. However, traders are repricing oil-driven inflation and fiscal risk premiums, leading to a continued rise in long-term US Treasury yields. The 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.74%, and the 30-year yield touched the 5.2%-5.3% range, reaching a new high since 2007. Noshad Shah, head of fixed income sales for Europe, Africa, and the Middle East at Citadel Securities, stated that in the context of supply shocks, inflation "has almost no breathing room." Key macroeconomic events to come include: Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET, the Fed releases the minutes of its July policy meeting; Thursday at 8:30 AM, initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey are released; Friday at 9:45 AM, preliminary manufacturing and services PMI readings are released. The Strait of Hormuz remains a key geopolitical variable influencing crude oil prices, inflation expectations, and safe-haven buying. A ship transiting the strait was attacked by artillery fire near Oman, suffering damage to its engine room and crew casualties. The 60-day negotiation window between the US and Iran has ended, with no substantial progress made. Iran insists that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until US sanctions and related demands are resolved. Negotiations between Iran and Oman regarding navigation management in the strait are proceeding independently, not in sync with the US. Brent crude is near $91 per barrel, and WTI crude is around $85 per barrel, with the market continuing to price in energy inflation risks. Gold is currently in a two-way game: geopolitical news such as the shipping crisis supports safe-haven demand, but rising crude oil prices coupled with rising long-term US Treasury yields are suppressing market expectations for gold price increases due to interest rate cuts. Global markets generally weakened before the US stock market opened. US stock index futures fell slightly, AI-related stocks fell sharply in pre-market trading, and the technology sector was under significant pressure. In European markets, the French CAC40 and German DAX indices both fell 0.5%, while the UK FTSE 100 was essentially flat. Asian stock markets diverged, with the Nikkei 225 plunging 2.5%, the South Korean KOSPI falling 1.6%, and Hong Kong and Shanghai stocks closing slightly higher. External markets: WTI crude oil strengthened, trading around $84.99 per barrel; Brent crude oil was around $90.94 per barrel. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield remained around 4.7%. The US dollar index ended its previous weakness, showing an overall upward bias. Technical Analysis Spot Gold (Spot Gold Daily Chart Source: FX678) Short-term bullish target: Gold price regains support at the $4448 resistance level. A successful break above this level would target $4518, followed by $4596. Short-term bearish target: A break below the $4333 support level would target $4262 and $4205. First resistance: $4448, then $4518; first support: $4333, then $4262. Spot Silver Short-term bullish target: Silver price breaks above $66.78 and holds above this level, targeting $68.24 and $69.63. Short-term bearish target: A break below the $65.00 support level would target $63.57 and $62.20. First resistance: $66.78, then $68.24; first support: $65.00, then $63.57.