The bond market is rife with anxiety; a return to pre-2008 interest rate levels should not trigger a financial panic.
2026-08-20 19:16:58
Let's take a look at the recent actual data on key government bond yields in major economies. On Tuesday, the yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond touched 5.339%, a new high since 2007; the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond was around 4.7%, just a step away from the recent high reached in early 2025. European markets also saw a significant rise, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year French government bond at around 4.1%, the highest since 2008; the yield on the 10-year German government bond reached 3.26%, returning to the level of 2011. It's worth noting for ordinary investors that although recent financial media coverage of the impact of rising interest rates has created the impression of a sudden surge, the aforementioned rise in yields did not happen overnight, but rather is the result of a gradual change over a period of time, not a sudden collapse. In other words, after more than a decade of ultra-low interest rates following the 2008 financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis, global bond yields are finally returning to historical normalcy. Japan is a rather special case, and its situation is also very valuable for reference. The yield on Japanese 10-year government bonds is currently around 2.93%, the highest level since 1996. Japan's situation is unique because it implemented large-scale monetary and fiscal stimulus policies before the 2008 global financial crisis, entering a period of ultra-low interest rates earlier than Europe and the United States. The current rise in Japanese bond yields essentially represents a withdrawal from the abnormal monetary environment maintained for a long period. Many novice investors react to rising interest rates with pessimism about the economic outlook, but higher interest rates are not entirely bad. Behind rising interest rates may lie the possibility of faster growth in the real economy. The technology sector has a strong demand for capital, especially for projects in the artificial intelligence field, which require a continuous flow of funding. According to Nomura Securities, technology-related financing and borrowing have reached $200 billion so far this year alone, accounting for approximately 25% of the total net issuance of US Treasury bonds during the same period. Companies are optimistic about the substantial returns that AI projects can bring in the future and are therefore willing to accept higher financing costs. From an investor's perspective, people are beginning to reassess returns: since corporate investments can yield higher returns, they will naturally demand higher interest rates when holding government bonds, which have relatively stable and low volatility. Seeing news reports of interest rates reaching near 20-year highs can easily cause fear among the general public. However, it's crucial to understand that the sustained ultra-low interest rates of the past two decades are a rare historical phenomenon, not the norm. Historically, the US economy has repeatedly withstood high interest rates and even achieved robust growth. A return to normal interest rates will encourage capital to flow into sectors that truly create value, improving capital allocation efficiency. Simply put, more money will flow to companies with growth potential, rather than passively receiving ultra-low interest. In the long run, this will promote economic expansion and create more jobs. Of course, we cannot completely ignore two factors that could drive up bond yields. These are also risks that ordinary people need to consider when managing their finances; don't be blindly optimistic just because interest rates are returning to normal. On the one hand, market concerns about a potential resurgence of inflation have contributed to rising yields; on the other hand, the deep-seated fiscal problems in most Western countries are also forcing government bond yields higher. Take the United States as an example: the ratio of publicly held federal debt to GDP has ballooned from 32% in 2008 to 100% today. The continued rise in interest rates further burdens the government's budget. This fiscal year, net interest payments on US government debt are expected to exceed $1 trillion, making it the second or third largest expenditure item in the federal budget, second only to Social Security and likely exceeding Medicare spending. However, this shouldn't be seen as a sudden black swan event. These fiscal risks have already objectively existed, and the bond market had already partially priced in these risks before the recent sharp rise in yields. The more than ten-year-long low-interest-rate environment has also quietly sown many financial risks. These risks will not automatically disappear as interest rates return to normal, and ordinary savers and investors need to know how to avoid related chain reactions. The UK debt crisis in September 2022 and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023 are clear warning signs: as yields shift from low levels to normal, some investment institutions and financial companies are prone to operational difficulties. It's not just large institutions; mortgage borrowers and business owners also need to adapt to the reality of rising borrowing costs. And those who should reflect most deeply are many Western governments. Over the past decade or so, they have borrowed heavily and expanded spending, assuming that near-zero interest rates would continue indefinitely, without any contingency plans for rising interest rates.
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