U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant has recently intensified regulatory measures, pushing forward the government's stabilization efforts with the core objective of maintaining the currently high yields on long-term Treasury bonds and even pushing them down steadily. Faced with continued pressure on the U.S. Treasury market and rising long-term interest rates, the U.S. Treasury has proactively adjusted its policy pace and increased intervention efforts in an attempt to reverse pessimistic market expectations. The previous week's expansion of Treasury bond repurchase programs failed to effectively boost the bond market, which remained weak. Against this backdrop, the U.S. government on Monday further intensified its regulatory efforts, abandoning its previous cautious approach and demonstrating a clear commitment to market support. It publicly announced plans to significantly expand its cash reserves and further increase its purchases of Treasury bonds in the secondary market to offset upward pressure on yields. The current US Treasury bond control measures are essentially a high-risk market game, fraught with uncertainty. It's a typical two-way game between the government and the market, with both sides constantly testing each other's limits, making the outcome unpredictable. If the Treasury's series of control measures are successfully implemented and accepted by the market, and long-term Treasury yields can successfully stabilize and decline, then this control strategy will achieve excellent results and be regarded as a classic success story in financial history. However, there is also a significant possibility of a reverse trend: once the capital market sees through the government's control measures and believes that it is merely verbal pressure without substantial long-term measures, Treasury yields may continue to rise. Market doubts about the policy's effectiveness and sustainability will be directly reflected in bond pricing. If this situation occurs, the US Treasury's market credibility and policy authority will be severely damaged, triggering market panic and forcing long-term yields to rise further, creating a vicious cycle. To date, the US Treasury's stabilization measures have mainly focused on policy statements and expectation guidance, with very limited substantive implementation. Last week, the Treasury Department officially announced a new policy, doubling the monthly repurchase volume of 10- to 30-year long-term Treasury bonds to $4 billion. The market initially expected this expansion to effectively absorb selling pressure and stabilize long-term bond prices. However, considering the overall market size, this amount is woefully inadequate: the total size of the US Treasury market exceeds $30 trillion, with the outstanding amount of long-term Treasury bonds estimated at nearly $6 trillion. The $4 billion in repurchase funds is insufficient to significantly impact the overall market trend and cannot fundamentally change the supply and demand structure, thus failing to halt the upward trend in yields. Because the initial repurchase policy was ineffective, the upward trend in long-term Treasury yields has not stopped. Faced with a continuously weakening bond market, Treasury Secretary Bessant signaled easing measures last Friday, implying that the subsequent Treasury bond repurchase program would likely exceed the existing $4 billion limit. This move was interpreted by the market as an initial signal of a policy shift by the Treasury Department, preparing for a strong market intervention. According to exclusive reports from two senior Treasury officials cited by CNBC, the US government further upgraded its policy stance on Monday, releasing significant positive signals and clarifying that the Treasury Department could utilize up to $1 trillion in funds for Treasury bond repurchase operations, representing a significant upgrade in its regulatory efforts. The Treasury's general account, the core fund account of the US government, established at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, is primarily used to collect federal tax revenues and handle the settlement of all official US government expenditures. It is the core source of funds for this massive repurchase operation, and its ample reserves provide fundamental support for large-scale bond purchases. Stimulated by the positive news of the trillion-dollar Treasury bond repurchase expectation, sentiment in the US bond market improved significantly yesterday, and volatility stabilized. Previously tense short-selling sentiment eased briefly, with investors halting their selling. Market data showed that the 30-year US Treasury yield fell to 5.23%, reaching the low end of the recent trading range, effectively easing short-term upward pressure. However, it's important to clarify that this yield control action, which relies on policy pronouncements to guide market expectations and may subsequently involve massive government intervention to support the market, is still in its implementation phase. The overall effectiveness has not yet been fully realized, and the final market trend remains highly uncertain. Short-term sentiment recovery does not represent a complete reversal of the medium- to long-term trend. In fact, the US government faces strong resistance from multiple fundamental factors in its attempt to forcibly suppress long-term Treasury yields, making control extremely difficult. The bond market's trajectory is ultimately determined by core fundamentals such as supply and demand, inflation, and geopolitics; a single policy intervention is unlikely to reverse the overall trend. Multiple negative factors are simultaneously pressuring the bond market and pushing up long-term interest rates: the ongoing geopolitical conflict with Iran continues to disrupt the global energy market, increasing energy inflation pressure; following the US election, government spending has expanded significantly, leading to a rapid surge in debt; simultaneously, companies in the artificial intelligence sector are issuing large amounts of corporate bonds, continuously crowding out funds in the fixed-income market. These multiple factors are converging, not only continuously raising market inflation expectations and causing a significant surge in Treasury bond supply, but also intensifying capital competition across the market, continuously pushing up US Treasury yields and providing solid fundamental support for the continued rise in long-term interest rates. In addition, two major fiscal data releases last week further exacerbated the bond market sell-off, continuously pushing up Treasury yields. Data shows that the total size of the US federal debt has officially surpassed the $40 trillion mark, setting a new historical high, while the US fiscal deficit this year is expected to soar to $2 trillion, resulting in unprecedented fiscal pressure. The continuously expanding deficit and ever-growing debt have caused deep concern in the market about the sustainability of US fiscal policy. Fundamentally, the most crucial and effective means to completely reverse the upward trend in yields and win the battle to stabilize the bond market is to promote deep-seated fiscal reforms through congressional legislation. However, given the current situation, neither the US Congress nor the White House has the will to advance fiscal reforms, nor are they willing to even engage in basic discussions on debt and deficit issues. They are also unable to introduce a credible and implementable fiscal reform plan, nor can they gradually resolve the financial risks posed by high debt through national policy discussions. This policy vacuum has allowed market pessimism to continue to fester. Bond institutional investors are already well aware of all these market fundamentals and policy shortcomings. Professional institutional investors possess an extremely keen ability to assess fundamental changes and policy loopholes, and are not easily swayed by short-term policy pronouncements. Therefore, the core focus of the current market game is very clear: can the US Treasury successfully convince the entire market that it not only has sufficient financial strength to support the market, but also the unwavering determination and long-term execution capability to continuously invest huge amounts of public funds and suppress Treasury yields? Besides Treasury bond repurchases, the US Treasury also holds another trump card for further intervention: urging the Federal Reserve to increase its Treasury bond purchases and restart the previously controversial quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy. Compared to the Treasury's individual bond purchases, the market impact and liquidity release effect of the Fed restarting QE would be stronger. However, this alternative faces significant obstacles to implementation, putting Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh in a very passive dilemma. Public information shows that Warsh has repeatedly and severely criticized quantitative easing policies, holding a negative attitude towards this type of massive, indiscriminate easing tool. Restarting QE would completely contradict his past policy stance, and would likely trigger market doubts about the Fed's policy independence and consistency. Behind this policy game lies a significant financial risk: if the bond market continues to ignore government intervention signals and insists on pushing up Treasury yields, it is essentially sending a clear signal to the US government—all short-term market support and verbal stabilization measures are merely treating the symptoms, not the root cause. Only structural and fundamental reforms, such as optimizing fiscal spending and innovating debt management systems, can truly stabilize the bond market and mitigate risks. The market is using price movements to force the government to promote deep-seated reforms and reject superficial short-term stabilization measures. Currently, bearish sentiment in the market has not completely dissipated, and whether the bearish forces in the bond market can be effectively suppressed and whether the market trend can stabilize remains uncertain. Even if policy benefits boost the market in the short term, the pessimistic fundamental logic in the medium to long term has not been completely reversed. If investors maintain a cautiously pessimistic attitude and continue to sell fixed-income assets, forcing yields to rise, the US bond market is likely to experience a deeper decline, triggering a period of bond market turmoil, and may even further spread to other financial markets such as the US stock market and exchange rates. This Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh will attend the globally anticipated Jackson Hole central bank symposium and deliver a major public speech, drawing significant attention from the entire market. The Jackson Hole symposium has historically been a crucial indicator of global monetary policy, easily triggering volatility in asset prices. This speech is far more than a simple policy announcement; it could very well be a key turning point in the current bond market dynamics. The bond market will rely on the policy signals from this speech to determine the true driving force in the financial markets. Regardless of whether the final policy direction leans dovish or hawkish, this speech will be a landmark event in Warsh's tenure as Fed chairman, profoundly impacting his reputation and subsequent policy decisions.